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Unemployment now 6.1% - Up for the Second Quarter in a row
Finding No. 4262 - Latest Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate: January 09, 2008

During the 2007 December Quarter the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate rose for the second period in a row: up 0.3% from 5.8% to 6.1%. 

However, the 2007 December Quarter result is down 1% from the 2006 December Quarter (7.1%).

The number of employed Australians has decreased by 32,000 to 10,025,000 since the September Quarter.

The number of full-time employees increased by 28,000 to 6,952,000, while the number of Australians employed part-time fell by 60,000 to 3,073,000.

An estimated 647,000 Australians were looking for work in the December 2007 Quarter — up 33,000 from the September result.

The number of Australians seeking full-time employment is 330,000 (up 13,000), while 317,000 Australians (up 21,000) were seeking part-time work.

The number of Australians who are part of the workforce (ie. employed or looking for work) barely changed: up 1,000 to 10,672,000.

Unsurprisingly, Western Australia (4.2%) had the lowest estimated unemployment, followed by Queensland (6.1%), Victoria (6.2%), New South Wales (6.3%), South Australia (6.5%) and Tasmania (8.1%).

Gary Morgan:

“The latest rise in ‘real’ unemployment, albeit small, is the second warning to the Reserve Bank of Australia — putting up interest rates again could ‘break’ the finely tuned Australian economy; and down we go ‘all the way with the USA!’  We explained in December that there was no need for the RBA to increase interest rates just prior to the Federal election and there is no need now.

“When Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan comment on how the Australian economy is going they need to use the Roy Morgan ‘real’ unemployment figures NOT the ‘wrong’ ABS unemployment estimate.  

“Following Howard and Costello in using ‘wrong’ unemployment estimates will, in February, give the RBA the opportunity to put up interest rates up again.  The ALP has ‘no chance’ of lasting more than one term if — with help from the RBA — they deliver a recession we DON'T have to have!”

 

The December Quarter Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is based on 12,774 face-to-face interviews on the weekends during October, November and December 2007 with Australians aged 14 and over.

 

For further information:

 

 

Gary Morgan:              Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

 

Michele Levine:           Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

 

The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia .

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.

The ABS classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.

For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.

Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published!

/news/papers/2003/20030801/

 

Roy Morgan Research vs. ABS Unemployment Estimates

The Roy Morgan Unemployment Estimates The ABS Unemployment Estimates
 % of work force unemployed
  Total looking
For work
('000)		 % of
Work force
Unemployed		 Total Looking
For Work*
('000) 		Original Adjusted*
2000  
January 983   10.6   655   7.4   6.9  
February 853   9.2   644   7.5   6.7  
March 868 (901) ** 9.4 (9.7) ** 700 (666) ** 7.3 (7.4) ** 6.9 (6.8) **
April 926   10.1   659   6.8   6.8  
May 912   9.8   643   6.7   6.7  
June 826 (888) ** 8.9 (9.6) ** 609 (637) ** 6.3 (6.6) ** 6.6 (6.7) **
July 870   9.3   610   5.9   6.3  
August 856   9.1   624   6.2   6.4  
September 869 (865) ** 9.4 (9.3) ** 614 (616) ** 6.4 (6.2) ** 6.3 (6.3) **
October 837   9.0   615   6.0   6.3  
November 909   9.6   637   6.2   6.6  
December 953 (900) ** 10.2 (9.6) ** 643 (632) ** 6.5 (6.2) ** 6.6 (6.5) **
2001  
January 974   10.4   647   7.2   6.6  
February 967   10.4   673   7.6   6.9  
March 989 (977) ** 10.6 (10.5)** 662 (661) ** 7.2 (7.3) ** 6.8 (6.8) **

April

970   10.2   669   6.8   6.8  

May

948   10.2   676   6.9   6.9  

June

908

(942)**

9.7

(10.0)**

681 (675) ** 6.7 (6.8) ** 6.9 (6.9) **

July

837   8.8   618   6.3   6.3  

August

918   9.7   644   6.6   6.6  

September

1006

(920) **

10.7

(9.7) **

672 (645) ** 6.8 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.5) **
October 914   9.6   697   6.7   7.1  
November 889   9.1   661   6.4   6.7  
December 1003 (935) ** 10.5 (9.8) ** 665 (674) ** 6.6 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.8) **
2002  
January 1075   10.9   693   7.4   7.0  
February 926   9.4   653   7.3   6.6  
March 841 (947) ** 8.9 (9.8)** 622 (656) ** 6.7 (7.1) ** 6.3 (6.6) **
April 812   8.4   622   6.4   6.3  
May 744   7.8   622   6.3   6.3  
June 794 (783) ** 8.3 (8.2)** 644 (629) ** 6.3 (6.3) ** 6.5 (6.4) **
July 750   7.6   609   5.6   6.2  
August 690   7.3   622   6.0   6.2  
September 703 (715) ** 7.3 (7.4)** 617 (616) ** 5.9 (6.2) ** 6.2 (6.2) **
October 748   7.8   599   5.7   6.0  
November 716   7.4   617   5.8   6.1  
December 730 (731) ** 7.7 (7.7) ** 628 (615) ** 6.1 (5.9) ** 6.2 (6.1) **
2003  
January 673   7.0   620   6.5   6.1  
February 808   8.4   610   6.7   6.0  
March 769 (750)** 8.0 (7.8)** 626 (619)** 6.5 (6.6)** 6.2 (6.1)**
April 744   7.7   623   6.2   6.1  
May 791   8.2   613   6.1   6.0  
June 764 (766)** 8.0 (8.0)** 620 (619)** 5.9 (6.1)** 6.1 (6.1)**
July 795   8.1   621   5.6   6.2  
August 774   8.1   594   5.6   5.9  
September 761 (776)** 7.8 (8.0)** 590 (602)** 5.8 (5.7)** 5.8 (6.0)**
October 711   7.1   577   5.4   5.7  
November 769   7.8   573   5.3   5.6  
December 863 (781)** 8.8 (7.9)** 575 (575)** 5.6 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.6)**
2004                    
January 973   9.5   584   6.2   5.8  
February 832   8.4   595   6.6   5.9  
March 892 (899)** 8.8 (8.9)** 574 (584)** 5.9 (6.2)** 5.6 (5.8)**
April 846   8.4   574   5.7   5.6  
May 786   7.9   561   5.5   5.5  
June 826 (819)** 8.5 (8.3)** 575 (570)** 5.5 (5.6)** 5.6 (5.6)**
July 757   7.4   582   5.2   5.7  
August 679   6.9   579   5.4   5.7  
September 698 (711)** 7.1 (7.1)** 572 (578)** 5.5 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.7)**
October 694   6.9   544   5.0   5.3  
November 632   6.4   536   4.9   5.2  
December 688 (671)** 6.8 (6.7)** 527 (536)** 5.0 (5.0)** 5.1 (5.2)**
2005                    
January 775   7.6   532   5.6   5.1  
February 715   7.0   533   5.7   5.1  
March 753 (748)** 7.5 (7.4)** 540 (535)** 5.4 (5.6)** 5.2 (5.1)**
April 797   7.7   540   5.2   5.1  
May 737   7.2   542   5.2   5.1  
June 669 (734)** 6.5 (7.1)** 527 (536)** 4.9 (5.1)** 5.0 (5.1)**
July 783   7.6   525   4.6   5.0  
August 715   7.0   530   4.8   5.0  
September 681 (726)** 6.7 (7.1)** 539 (531)** 5.1 (4.8)** 5.1 (5.0)**
October 709   6.9   548   4.9   5.2  
November 834   8.1   538   4.7   5.1  
December 864 (801)** 8.5 (7.8)** 546 (544)** 5.1 (4.9)** 5.2 (5.2)**
2006                    
January 893   8.5   558   5.8   5.3  
February 832   7.8   554   5.9   5.2  
March 815 (847)** 7.7 (8)** 532 (548)** 5.3 (5.7)** 5.0 (5.2)**
April 753   7.2   542   5.2   5.1  
May 695   6.6   521   4.9   4.9  
June 626 (691)** 5.9 (6.6)** 529 (531)** 4.8 (5.0)** 4.9 (5.0)**
July 776   7.3   514   4.4   4.8  
August 722   7.0   524   4.6   4.9  
September 803 (767)** 7.6 (7.3)** 513 (517)** 4.8 (4.6)** 4.8 (4.7)**
October 864   8.2   496   4.3   4.6  
November 681   6.5   499   4.3   4.6  
December 712 (752)** 6.7 (7.1)** 502 (499)** 4.5 (4.4)** 4.6 (4.6)**
2007                    
January 854   8.0   493   5.0   4.5  
February 781   7.4   502   5.2   4.6  
March 636 (757)** 6.3 (7.2)** 485 (493)** 4.7 (5.0)** 4.5 (4.5)**
April 680   6.3   475   4.5   4.4  
May 528   4.9   463   4.3   4.2  
June 579 (596)** 5.5 (5.6)** 472 (470)** 4.2 (4.3)** 4.3 (4.3)**
July 648   6.1   468   3.9   4.3  
August 537   5.0   472   4.1   4.3  
September 658 (614)** 6.2 (5.8)** 461 (467)** 4.2 (4.1)** 4.2 (4.3)**
October 594   5.6   480   4.1   4.4  
November 606   5.7   499   4.1   4.5  
December 740 (647)** 7.0 (6.1)**            
* ABS Seasonally Adjusted figures ** Average calculated for previous three months

 

Roy Morgan Employment Estimate - detailed

  Total Workforce
('000)		 Total employed
('000)		 Total looking
for work
('000)		 % of workforce
Unemployed
2000  
January 9312   8329   983   10.6  
February 9270   8417   853   9.2  
March 9227 (9269) ** 8359 (8368) ** 868 (901) ** 9.4 (9.7) **
April 9165   8239   926   10.1  
May 9266   8354   912   9.8  
June 9277 (9236) ** 8451 (8348) ** 826 (888) ** 8.9 (9.6) **
July 9341   8471   870   9.3  
August 9454   8598   856   9.1  
September 9211 (9334) ** 8342 (8470) ** 869 (865) ** 9.4 (9.3) **
October 9251   8414   837   9.0  
November 9439   8530   909   9.6  
December 9314 (9334) ** 8361 (8434) ** 953 (900) ** 10.2 (9.6) **
2001  
January 9408   8434   974   10.4  
February 9280   8313   967   10.4  
March 9320 (9336) ** 8331 (9336) ** 989 (977) ** 10.6 (10.5) **
April 9466   8496   970   10.2  
May 9323   8375   948   10.2  
June 9344 (9377) ** 8436 (8435) ** 908 (942) ** 9.7 (10.0) **
July 9548   8711   837   8.8  
August 9466   8548   918   9.7  
September 9414 (9475) ** 8408 (8555) ** 1006 (920) ** 10.7 (9.7) **
October 9438   8524   914   9.6  
November 9768   8879   889   9.1  
December 9529 (9578) ** 8526 (8643) ** 1003 (935) ** 10.5 (9.8) **
2002  
January 9819   8744   1075   10.9  
February 9801   8875   926   9.4  
March 9470 (9696) ** 8629 (8749) ** 841 (947) ** 8.9 (9.8) **
April 9692   8880   812   8.4  
May 9557   8813   744   7.8  
June 9563 (9604) ** 8769 (8820) ** 794 (783) ** 8.3 (8.2) **
July 9842   9092   750   7.6  
August 9484   8794   690   7.3  
September 9637 (9654) ** 8934 (8939) ** 703 (715) ** 7.3 (7.4) **
October 9614   8867   748   7.8  
November 9623   8907   716   7.4  
December 9429 (9555) ** 8699 (8824) ** 730 (731) ** 7.7 (7.7) **
2003  
January 9637   8964   673   7.0  
February 9625   8817   808   8.4  
March 9565 (9609)** 8796 (8859)** 769 (750)** 8.0 (7.8)**
April 9681   8936   744   7.7  
May 9606   8815   791   8.2  
June 9551 (9612)** 8787 (8846)** 764 (766)** 8.0 (8.0)**
July 9847   9052   795   8.1  
August 9582   8808   774   8.1  
September 9729 (9719)** 8968 (8943)** 761 (776)** 7.8 (8.0)**
October 9972   9261   711   7.1  
November 9870   9100   769   7.8  
December 9799 (9880)** 8936 (9099)** 863 (781)** 8.8 (7.9)**
2004                
January 10212   9240   973   9.5  
February 9939   9108   832   8.4  
March 10089 (10080)** 9197 (9181)** 892 (899)** 8.8 (8.9)**
April 10040   9194   846   8.4  
May 9954   9167   786   7.9  
June 9701 (9898)** 8875 (9079)** 826 (819)** 8.5 (8.3)**
July 10219   9463   757   7.4  
August 9896   9217   679   6.9  
September 9791 (9969)** 9094 (9258)** 698 (711)** 7.1 (7.1)**
October 10027   9334   694   6.9  
November 9936   9304   632   6.4  
December 10120 (10028)** 9432 (9356)** 688 (671)** 6.8 (6.7)**
2005                
January 10162   9387   775   7.6  
February 10200   9485   715   7.0  
March 10086 (10149)** 9333 (9402)** 753 (748)** 7.5 (7.4)**
April 10382   9586   797   7.7  
May 10216   9478   737   7.2  
June 10288 (10294)** 9620 (9560)** 669 (734)** 6.5 (7.1)**
July 10367   9584   783   7.6  
August 10190   9476   715   7.0  
September 10103 (10220)** 9423 (9494)** 681 (726)** 6.7 (7.1)**
October 10324   9615   709   6.9  
November 10269   9437   832   8.1  
December 10182 (10258)** 9319 (9457)** 864 (801)** 8.5 (7.8)**
2006                
January 10487   9594   893   8.5  
February 10653   9821   832   7.8  
March 10518 (10552)** 9703 (9706)** 815 (847)** 7.7 (8.0)**
April 10511   9758   753   7.2  
May 10565   9871   695   6.6  
June 10609 (10561)** 9987 (9871)** 626 (691)** 5.9 (6.6)**
July 10564   9788   776   7.3  
August 10294   9572   722   7.0  
September 10555 (10471)** 9751 (9704)** 803 (767)** 7.6 (7.3)**
October 10486   9622   864   8.2  
November 10496   9815   681   6.5  
December 10651 (10544)** 9939 (9792)** 712 (752)** 6.7 (7.1)**
2007                
January 10705   9851   854   8.0  
February 10591   9810   781   7.4  
March 10159 (10485)** 9523 (9728)** 636 (757)** 6.3 (7.2)**
April 10776   10096   680   6.3  
May 10751   10223   528   4.9  
June 10584 (10704)** 10005 (10108)** 579 (596)** 5.5 (5.6)**
July 10555   9907   648   6.1  
August 10814   10277   537   5.0  
September 10644 (10671)** 9986 (10057)** 658 (614)** 6.2 (5.8)**
October 10635   10041   594   5.6  
November 10731   10125   606   5.7  
December 10649 (10672)** 9909 (10025)** 740 (647)** 7.0 (6.1)**
** Average calculated for previous three months

ABS Employment Estimates - detailed

  % of workforce unemployed
  Total workforce*
('000)		 Total employed*
('000)		 Total Looking
for work*
('000)		 Original Adjusted*
2000  
January 9558   8903   655   7.4   6.9  
February 9606   8962   644   7.5   6.7  
March 9650 (9605) ** 8950 (8938) ** 700 (666)** 7.3 (7.4) ** 6.9 (6.8)**
April 9664   9005   659   6.8   6.8  
May 9659   9017   643   6.7   6.7  
June 9665 (9663) ** 9056 (9026) ** 609 (637)** 6.3 (6.6) ** 6.6 (6.7) **
July 9728   9118   610   5.9   6.3  
August 9766   9142   624   6.2   6.4  
September 9725 (9740) ** 9111 (9124) ** 614 (616)** 6.4 (6.2) ** 6.3 (6.3) **
October 9722   9106   615   6.0   6.3  
November 9684   9047   637   6.2   6.6  
December 9730 (9712) ** 9087 (9080) ** 643 (632)** 6.5 (6.2) ** 6.6 (6.5) **
2001  
January 9730   9083   647   7.2   6.6  
February 9773   9099   673   7.6   6.9  
March 9752 (9752) ** 9090 (9091) ** 662 (661)** 7.2 (7.3) ** 6.5 (6.7) **
April 9800   9140   671   6.8   6.8  
May 9818   9152   676   6.9   6.9  
June 9830 (9816) ** 9149 (9147) ** 681 (676)** 6.7 (6.8) ** 6.9 (6.9) **
July 9809   9191   618   6.3   6.3  
August 9768   9124   644   6.6   6.6  
September 9928 (9835) ** 9255 (9190) ** 672 (672)** 6.8 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.5) **
October 9880   9183   697   6.7   7.1  
November 9848   9187   661   6.4   6.7  
December 9864 (9864) ** 9199 (9189) ** 665 (674)** 6.6 (6.6) ** 6.7 (6.8) **
2002  
January 9955   9263   693   7.4   7.0  
February 9936   9283   653   7.3   6.6  
March 9972 (9939) ** 9304 (9283) ** 622 (656)** 6.7 (7.1) ** 6.3 (6.6) **
April 9882   9261   621   6.4   6.3  
May 9928   9305   622   6.3   6.3  
June 9962 (9924) ** 9318 (9294) ** 643 (628)** 6.3 (7.1) ** 6.5 (6.4) **
July 9898   9289   609   5.6   6.2  
August 10000   9378   622   6.0   6.2  
September 9964 (9954) ** 9347 (9338) ** 617 (616)** 6.2 (5.9) ** 6.2 (6.2) **
October 9962   9363   599   5.7   6.0  
November 10040   9424   617   5.8   6.1  
December 10104 (10035) ** 9476 (9421)** 628 (615) ** 6.1 (5.9) ** 6.2 (6.1) **
2003  
January 10196   9576   620   6.5   6.1  
February 10173   9564   610   6.7   6.0  
March 10146 (10172)** 9521 (9554)** 626 (619)** 6.5 (6.6)** 6.2 (6.1)**
April 10129   9506   623   6.2   6.1  
May 10148   9535   613   6.1   6.0  
June 10128 (10135)** 9508 (9516)** 620 (619)** 5.9 (6.1)** 6.1 (6.1)**
July 10102   9481   621   5.6   6.2  
August 10129   9535   594   5.6   5.9  
September 10144 (10125)** 9555 (9524)** 590 (602)** 5.8 (5.7)** 5.8 (6.0)**
October 10190   9613   577   5.4   5.7  
November 10209   9637   573   5.3   5.6  
December 10241 (10213)** 9666 (9639)** 575 (575)** 5.6 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.6)**
2004                    
January 10156   9571   584   6.2   5.8  
February 10168   9573   595   6.6   5.9  
March 10211 (10178)** 9637 (9594)** 574 (584)** 5.9 (6.2)** 5.6 (5.8)**
April 10271   9696   574   5.7   5.6  
May 10216   9655   561   5.5   5.5  
June 10221 (10236)** 9646 (9666)** 575 (570)** 5.5 (5.6)** 5.6 (5.6)**
July 10244   9662   582   5.2   5.7  
August 10233   9654   579   5.4   5.7  
September 10290 (10256)** 9717 (9678)** 572 (578)** 5.5 (5.4)** 5.6 (5.7)**
October 10312   9768   544   5.0   5.3  
November 10329   9793   536   4.9   5.2  
December 10349 (10330)** 9822 (9794)** 527 (536)** 5.0 (5.0)** 5.1 (5.2)**
2005                    
January 10402   9870   532   5.6   5.1  
February 10422   9890   533   5.7   5.1  
March 10488 (10437)** 9948 (9903)** 540 (535)** 5.4 (5.6)** 5.2 (5.1)**
April 10508   9968   540   5.2   5.1  
May 10524   9982   542   5.2   5.1  
June 10550 (10527)** 10023 (9991)** 527 (536)** 4.9 (5.1)** 5.0 (5.1)**
July 10560   10035   525   4.6   5.0  
August 10597   10067   530   4.8   5.0  
September 10563 (10573)** 10023 (10042)** 539 (531)** 5.1 (4.8)** 5.1 (5.0)**
October 10551   10002   548   4.9   5.2  
November 10569   10030   538   4.7   5.1  
December 10582 (10567)** 10035 (10022)** 546 (544)** 5.1 (4.9)** 5.2 (5.2)**
2006                    
January 10590   10032   558   5.8   5.3  
February 10612   10058   554   5.9   5.2  
March 10620 (10607)** 10088 (10059)** 532 (548)** 5.3 (5.7)** 5.0 (5.2)**
April 10628   10086   542   5.2   5.1  
May 10664   10142   521   4.9   4.9  
June 10725 (10672)** 10196 (10141)** 529 (531)** 4.8 (5.0)** 4.9 (5.0)**
July 10756   10242   514   4.4   4.8  
August 10789   10265   524   4.6   4.9  
September 10799 (10781)** 10285 (10264)** 513 (517)** 4.8 (4.6)** 4.8 (4.7)**
October 10749   10253   496   4.3   4.6  
November 10788   10289   499   4.3   4.6  
December 10842 (10793)** 10341 (10294)** 502 (499)** 4.5 (4.4)** 4.6 (4.6)**
2007                    
January 10828   10336   493   5.0   4.5  
February 10859   10358   502   5.2   4.6  
March 10864 (10850)** 10380 (10358)** 485 (493)** 4.7 (5.0)** 4.5 (4.5)**
April 10889   10414   475   4.5   4.4  
May 10917   10453   463   4.3   4.2  
June 10934 (10913)** 10462 (10443)** 472 (470)** 4.2 (4.3)** 4.3 (4.3)**
July 10952   10484   468   3.9   4.3  
August 10985   10513   472   4.1   4.3  
September 10988 (10975)** 10528 (10508)** 461 (467)** 4.2 (4.1)** 4.2 (4.3)**
October 11011   10531   480   4.1   4.4  
November 11082   10583   499   4.1   4.5  
December                    
* Seasonally Adjusted figures ** Average calculated for previous three months

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