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The first Morgan Poll of 2008 finds ALP primary support at 51.5% (up 2% from the previous Morgan Poll and 8.1% above its election result of 43.4%), and L-NP primary support at 33% (down 1% from the previous Morgan Poll and 9.1% below its election result of 42.1%).

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8% (down 2.5% from the previous Morgan Poll), Family First 2% (down 0.5%), and Others 5.5% (up 2%). 

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP holds a commanding 23% lead: 61.5% (up 1%) cf. 38.5% (down 1%).

The number of Australians who say Australia is “heading in the right direction” is unchanged at 64%, up 10% since the final pre-election Morgan Poll.  A low 17% (up 0.5%) think the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction” (19% can’t say).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (GCR) is 147 points (down 0.5).  The GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Australians who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in the wrong direction”.

Gary Morgan says:

“Labor has increased its two-party lead from 21% to 23% (61.5% cf. 38.5%) and its primary support is above 50% for the first time post-election.  Conversely, the Coalition’s primary support (33%, down 1%) is at its lowest level in almost a year.

“Historically, a recently elected Government experiences a ‘honeymoon period’.  Similarly, the vote for the incumbent Government usually increases immediately after Christmas.

“Prime Minister Rudd and his colleagues will be hoping that the ‘honeymoon’ lasts despite a fall in the January Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating and an increase in ‘real’ Australian unemployment during the December Quarter, as measured by Roy Morgan.  

“The RBA's decision on whether or not to increase interest rates in February will have a bearing on how long the ALP Government's ‘honeymoon’ lasts.”

This latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of January 5/6 and 12/13, 2007, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,825 electors.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 3.5% (down 1%) did not name a party.

During the period:

• More than 100 people were killed in Nairobi and western Kenya during clashes that erupted following President Mwai Kibaki’s re-election;

• The Australian Taxation Office introduced several legislative changes for tax, superannuation and excise with the start of the New Year;

• The National Australia Bank (NAB) was the first to lift its variable mortgage rate in light of the mortgage crisis in the US and other major banks are expected to follow;

• Unemployment figures in the United States hit a two-year high, reaching 5%;

• Qantas announced its international fuel surcharges will rise by up to nearly 17% because of record high oil prices; and

• The Indian cricket team threatened to abandon its Australian tour after spin bowler, Harbhajan Singh was found guilty of racial abuse.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15	July 21/22 & 28/29	Aug 4/5 & 11/12	Aug 18/19 & 25/26	Sep 1/2	Sep 8/9	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50.5	48.5	51.5	51.5	55.5	49	49	48.5	47	48	52.5	52	49.5
Wrong direction	33	32.5	33.5	31	30	33.5	34.5	33	34.5	37	32	32	34.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	117.5	116	118	120.5	125.5	115.5	114.5	115.5	112.5	111	120.5	120	115
Can’t say	16.5	19	15	17.5	14.5	17.5	16.5	18.5	18.5	15	15.5	16	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	Oct 6/7	Oct 13/14	Oct 17/18^	Oct 20/21	Oct 24/25^	Oct 27/28	Nov 3/4	Nov 7/8^	Nov 10/11	Nov 15-17^	Nov 17/18	Nov 21/22^	Nov 23^
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	53	57.5	53	53.5	63.5	56	50	55.5	55.5	48	52.5	52	54
Wrong direction	28.5	29	31.5	30	28	30	30.5	31	29	37	30	34	30
Roy Morgan GCR*	124.5	128.5	121.5	123.5	135.5	126	119.5	124.5	126.5	111	122.5	118	124
Can’t say	18.5	13.5	15.5	16.5	8.5	14	19.5	13.5	15.5	15	17.5	14	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government
	Dec 5/6^	Dec 1/2 & 8/9	Jan 5/6 & 12/13
	%	%	%
Right direction	60	64	64
Wrong direction	15.5	16.5	17
Roy Morgan GCR*	144.5	147.5	147
Can’t say	24.5	19.5	19
Total	100	100	100

^ Phone Poll

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	ALP	L-NP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007	58	14.5	27.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007	61	17	22
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008	65	15	20

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

			The	Family	Ind./
	ALP	L-NP	Greens	First#	Others#
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	38.8	47.3 (8.6)	1.7	†	12.2
Election October 3, 1998^	40.1	39.5 (5.3)	2.1	†	18.3
Election November 10, 2001	37.8	43 (5.6)	4.4	†	13.8
Election October 9, 2004	37.6	46.4 (5.9)	7.2	2.0	6.8
Election November 24, 2007	43.4	42.1 (5.5)	7.8	2.0	4.7
MORGAN POLL
Dec 5/6, 2007	49	36.5 (3.5)	7	1.5	6
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007	49.5	34 (2.5)	10.5	2.5	3.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008	51.5	33 (2.5)	8	2	5.5

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP
	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	46.4	53.6
Election October 3, 1998^	51	49
Election November 10, 2001	49	51
Election October 9, 2004	47.3	52.7
Election November 24, 2007	52.7	47.3
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election
	%	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007	58.5	41.5	58.5	41.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007	61.5	38.5	60.5	39.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008	62	38	61.5	38.5

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

** Telephone poll

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4264 is taken from Computer Report No. 2234

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