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In the first Morgan Poll since Tuesday’s share-market crash, ALP primary support is 53% (up 1.5% from the face-to-face Morgan Poll released last Friday), and L-NP primary support is 32% (down 1%), the latest telephone Morgan Poll finds.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 10% (up 2%), Family First 1% (down 1%), and Others 4% (down 1.5%). 

On a two-party preferred basis the ALP holds a commanding lead: 63% (up 1.5%) cf. 37% (down 1.5%).

The number of Australians who say Australia is “heading in the right direction” is down 3% to 61%, while 19% (up 2%) think the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction” (20% can’t say).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (GCR) is 142 points (down 5 points).  The GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Australians who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in the wrong direction”.

Gary Morgan says:

“The significant falls in the Australia share-market on Tuesday have had little effect on political voting intention — in the short term anyway.  Labor primary support is up 1.5% to 53%, while Coalition support is at a low 32% (down 1%).  The ALP has extended its two-party lead from 23% to 26% (63% cf. 37%).

“If Consumer Confidence heads further ‘southward’, and interest rates are raised by the RBA in early February, Kevin Rudd and his Government will be under much pressure to ease the burden on Australian consumers.

“As discussed in this article (‘Share-market falls & the effect on Consumer Confidence’), historical Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence data  (continuously measured since 1973) shows dramatic events, such as the 1987 share market crash and September 11 (2001), have had a significant effect on Australian Consumer Confidence: confidence dropped 16% following the 1987 crash and 12% on September 12.

“The RBA should hold off on any interest rate increase until two crucial figures — the February Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating (to be released February 8) and the next set of ABS unemployment figures (to be released on February 14).”

This latest telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted January 23/24, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,214 electors.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

Of all electors surveyed, 4% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15	July 21/22 & 28/29	Aug 4/5 & 11/12	Aug 18/19 & 25/26	Sep 1/2	Sep 8/9	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50.5	48.5	51.5	51.5	55.5	49	49	48.5	47	48	52.5	52	49.5
Wrong direction	33	32.5	33.5	31	30	33.5	34.5	33	34.5	37	32	32	34.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	117.5	116	118	120.5	125.5	115.5	114.5	115.5	112.5	111	120.5	120	115
Can’t say	16.5	19	15	17.5	14.5	17.5	16.5	18.5	18.5	15	15.5	16	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	Oct 6/7	Oct 13/14	Oct 17/18**	Oct 20/21	Oct 24/25**	Oct 27/28	Nov 3/4	Nov 7/8**	Nov 10/11	Nov 15-17**	Nov 17/18	Nov 21/22**	Nov 23**
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	53	57.5	53	53.5	63.5	56	50	55.5	55.5	48	52.5	52	54
Wrong direction	28.5	29	31.5	30	28	30	30.5	31	29	37	30	34	30
Roy Morgan GCR*	124.5	128.5	121.5	123.5	135.5	126	119.5	124.5	126.5	111	122.5	118	124
Can’t say	18.5	13.5	15.5	16.5	8.5	14	19.5	13.5	15.5	15	17.5	14	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government
	Dec 5/6**	Dec 1/2 & 8/9	Jan 5/6 & 12/13	Jan 23/24**
	%	%	%	%
Right direction	60	64	64	61
Wrong direction	15.5	16.5	17	19
Roy Morgan GCR*	144.5	147.5	147	142
Can’t say	24.5	19.5	19	20
Total	100	100	100	100

** Phone Poll

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	ALP	L-NP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007**	58	14.5	27.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007	61	17	22
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008	65	15	20
Jan 23/24, 2008**	65	10.5	24.5

** Phone Poll

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

			The	Family	Ind./
	ALP	L-NP	Greens	First#	Others
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	38.8	47.3 (8.6)	1.7	†	12.2
Election October 3, 1998^	40.1	39.5 (5.3)	2.1	†	18.3
Election November 10, 2001	37.8	43 (5.6)	4.4	†	13.8
Election October 9, 2004	37.6	46.4 (5.9)	7.2	2.0	6.8
Election November 24, 2007	43.4	42.1 (5.5)	7.8	2.0	4.7
MORGAN POLL
Dec 5/6, 2007**	49	36.5 (3.5)	7	1.5	6
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007	49.5	34 (2.5)	10.5	2.5	3.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008	51.5	33 (2.5)	8	2	5.5
Jan 23/24, 2008**	53	32(2)	10	1	4

Note: National Party results are in brackets

** Phone Poll

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP
	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	46.4	53.6
Election October 3, 1998^	51	49
Election November 10, 2001	49	51
Election October 9, 2004	47.3	52.7
Election November 24, 2007	52.7	47.3
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2004 election
	%	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007**	58.5	41.5	58.5	41.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007	61.5	38.5	60.5	39.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008	62	38	61.5	38.5
Jan 23/24, 2008**	63	37	63	37

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International. 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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