Sharemarket plunge sends voters back to Labour in New Zealand
| Finding No. 4269 -
February 11, 2008 |
As share-markets plunged worldwide during late January, including the NZ50 in Wellington, voters in New Zealand deserted the Opposition National Party, down 6.5% to 45.5%, and came back strongly to the Governing Labour Party (up 3% to 36.5%) and the Green Party (up 2.5% to 9%) the latest New Zealand Morgan Poll finds.
The gap between Labour and the National Party has narrowed to only 9%, the closest Labour has been to the National Party since October, just before the arrests of the New Zealand “domestic terrorists.” The Labour Government is 4.6% below its 2005 General Election result while support for the Opposition National Party is 6.4% above its 2005 General Election result.
Looking at the minor parties, support for New Zealand First 4% (up 0.5%) and ACT New Zealand 2% (up 1%) improved slightly. The Maori Party vote was at 2% (down 0.5%) and United Future New Zealand again had the support of only 0.5% (unchanged) of the New Zealand electorate.
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
Of electors who said they were likely to vote (90.5%, up 0.5%), 5.5% (down 0.5%) were undecided on who they would vote for.
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest Morgan Poll shows the New Zealand election later in the year is set to be close. The worldwide plunge of share-markets has seen a strong rebound in support for Helen Clark’s Government as large falls on the NZ50 - down over 16% from its October peak - has contributed to falling NZ Consumer Confidence.
“With the narrowing in support for the major parties, the Labour Government has started to claw back some of the ground lost over the bungling of the domestic terrorism debacle in October.
“As the date of the election nears, voters in New Zealand will have to decide whether the leadership offered by Helen Clark over the past 8 years is deserving of another term, or whether the untried leader of the National Party, John Key, is up to the task of managing the complex international economic situation that faces New Zealand in coming years.”
This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 848 electors between January 21 — February 3, 2008.
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
41.3 |
20.9 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
7 |
6.7 |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
41.1 |
39.1 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
5.3 |
2.67 |
2.12 |
1.51 |
2.48 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 20 - October 2, 2005 |
36.5 |
41.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
October 4-16, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 18-31, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
9 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
November 15-27, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 28 - December 9, 2005 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
January 4-12, 2006 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 13—23, 2006 |
39 |
40.5 |
0 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 24 - February 5, 2006 |
38.5 |
39 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
9.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0 |
|
February 7-19, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 22 - March 6, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
March 7-19, 2006 |
42.5 |
41 |
0 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 20 - April 2, 2006 |
40 |
43 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 3-16, 2006 |
41.5 |
40 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 17-30, 2006 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
- |
|
May 1-14, 2006 |
39.5 |
41 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May 15-28, 2006 |
41 |
44 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
May 29 — June 11, 2006 |
40 |
44.5 |
- |
4.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
- |
|
June 12-25, 2006 |
37 |
45 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 3-16, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
- |
4.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 17 - 30, 2006 |
40 |
42 |
- |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 31 - August 13, 2006 |
39 |
41 |
- |
3.5 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 14-27, 2006 |
38.5 |
44 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 28 - September 10, 2006 |
41 |
38 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September 16 - October 1, 2006 |
36 |
41.5 |
- |
7 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2-15, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
^ |
5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
October 16-29, 2006 |
38.5 |
41 |
^ |
3 |
8 |
3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
|
October 30 — November 12, 2006 |
38.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 13 - 26, 2006 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 27 - December 12, 2006 |
37.5 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 3-21, 2007 |
41 |
41 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 23 - February 5, 2007 |
39.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 6-18, 2007 |
36 |
48.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
- |
|
February 19 - March 4, 2007 |
36 |
45 |
0.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
March 5-18, 2007 |
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
- |
|
March 19 - April 2, 2007 |
35.5 |
46 |
^ |
3.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
April 3-16, 2007 |
33.5 |
45.5 |
^ |
6 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 23 - May 6, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 7-20, 2007 |
32 |
49 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
May 21 - June 3, 2007 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
- |
3.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 4-17, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 18 - July 1, 2007 |
34 |
48.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 2-15, 2007 |
36 |
47 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 16-29, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
0.5 |
4 |
6 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
July 30 - August 12, 2007 |
31 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 20 - September 2, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 3-16, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 17-30, 2007 |
33 |
48.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 1-14, 2007 |
39 |
45.5 |
^ |
3 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
October 15-28, 2007 |
40.5 |
45 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
5.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November 12-25, 2007 |
35 |
48 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November 26-December 9, 2007 |
34.5 |
47.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
6 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1
|
|
January 3-20, 2008 |
33.5 |
52 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 21-February 3, 2008 |
36.5 |
45.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.
NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates |
| |
Aug 20-Sep 2,
2007 |
Sep 3-16,
2007 |
Sep 17-30,
2007 |
Oct 1-14,
2007 |
Oct 15-28,
2007 |
Oct 29-Nov 11,
2007 |
Nov 12-25,
2007 |
Nov 26-Dec 9,
2007 |
Jan 3-20,
2008 |
Jan 21-Feb 3,
2008 |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
51.5 |
54 |
49.5 |
53 |
50.5 |
43.5 |
47 |
47.5 |
46.5 |
46 |
|
Wrong direction |
35.5 |
32.5 |
34.5 |
32 |
33 |
37.5 |
37 |
38 |
39 |
38.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR# |
116 |
121.5 |
115 |
121 |
117.5 |
106 |
110 |
109.5 |
107.5 |
107.5 |
|
Can’t say |
13 |
13.5 |
16 |
15 |
16.5 |
19 |
16 |
14.5 |
14.5 |
15.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).
Finding No. 4268 is taken from Computer Report No. 2236
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
Finding No. 4269 is taken from Computer Report No. 2237
|
