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| NEWS : Morgan Poll : | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Rudd clearly the preferred Prime Minister - Turnbull preferred as Coalition Leader
A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights finds: • Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as Australia’s Prime Minister: 77% of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Dr Brendan Nelson (9%) — 14% can’t say or someone else; • With such a clear lead it is not surprising that 66% of Australians prefer Mr Rudd to lead the ALP at the next Federal election, 15% prefer Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Bill Shorten, Lindsay Tanner and Stephen Smith all received 2%, with Indigenous Affairs Minister Jenny Macklin preferred by 1% of electors (10% can’t say who they’d prefer); • Deputy PM Julia Gillard will be buoyed by the fact that if Mr Rudd were to resign, she is clearly the preferred ALP Leader with half (50%) of all electors preferring her to lead, while Mr Swan’s support increases to 8%, followed by Mr Tanner (6%), Mr Shorten, Mr Smith and Ms Macklin (all 5%). Twenty-one per cent can’t say who they’d prefer if Mr Rudd was no longer ALP Leader; • The news isn’t good for embattled Coalition Leader Dr Brendan Nelson — only 9% of electors prefer him to lead the L-NP to the next Federal election. Malcolm Turnbull is the most preferred candidate (24%), followed by former Treasurer Peter Costello (18%), Joe Hockey (13%), Alexander Downer (9%), Deputy PM Julie Bishop (7%), Tony Abbott (6%), and Andrew Robb (1%). Thirteen per cent can’t say who they’d prefer; • When Dr Nelson is removed as a candidate for the Coalition leadership, Mr Turnbull’s support increases to 26%, with Mr Costello the next preferred candidate (19%) despite his move to the backbench, Mr Hockey (14%), Mr Downer (11%), Ms Bishop (8%), Mr Abbott (7%), and Mr Robb (2%). Thirteen per cent can’t say who they’d prefer if Dr Nelson was removed as Coalition Leader. Gary Morgan says:
This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of February 20/21, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 527 electors. Better Prime Minister: Rudd vs Nelson Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Rudd and Dr Nelson. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Rudd or Dr Nelson?” Kevin Rudd has a huge lead over Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson amongst ALP voters (94% cf. 2%) and Greens voters (92% cf. 4%) and a commanding lead even amongst L-NP supporters (52% cf. 23%) over who would make the better Prime Minister.
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution * John Howard was Coalition Leader Kevin Rudd’s support is strongest among young people with huge leads over Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson, (82% cf. 3%) amongst 18-24 yr olds and for 25-34 yr olds (80% cf. 7%).
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution * John Howard was Coalition Leader Preferred Labor Leader Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?” Before becoming leader in December 2006, Rudd trailed now deputy leader Gillard in the leadership stakes. Since assuming the leadership, Rudd’s support amongst electors has leapt to 66% (up 41%), while Gillard has dropped to 15% (down 17%).
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution * Less than 0.5%
Rudd has the support of more men than women (71% cf. 62%) while Gillard improves significantly with women compared to men (20% cf. 11%).
* Less than 0.5% Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd Respondents who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader were then asked: “Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard,Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner?” The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd. If Kevin Rudd were to lose the Labor Leadership, Industrial Relations Minister Julia Gillard (50%) is clearly the preferred leader, far ahead of Treasurer Wayne Swan (8%).
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution * Less than 0.5%
Gillard’s support for the Labor leadership is much stronger with women than men, 58% cf. 43%.
Preferred Coalition Leader Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?” For the first time, Opposition Treasurer Malcolm Turnbull (24%) is the preffered leader of the Opposition ahead of Peter Costello (18%). Current leader Brendan Nelson can manage only 9% support amongst the electorate, placing him behind Joe Hockey (13%) and level with the retiring Alexander Downer (9%).
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution * Less than 0.5%
Interestingly, the strongest support for Malcolm Turnbull is from older electors, 35+, while for those 18-24 and 25-34, the preferred Leader of the Opposition is former Treasurer and backbencher Peter Costello.
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Preferred Coalition Leader other than Brendan Nelson Respondents who preferred Brendan Nelson were then asked: “Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Peter Costello, Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Alexander Downer, Andrew Robb?” The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Brendan Nelson. Although Turnbull has broader support than Costello (26% cf. 19%) as preferred Coalition Leader without Brendan Nelson, Costello's support is stronger among L-NP voters (28% cf. 26%).
# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution Support for Turnbull is stronger amongst men than women, (29% cf. 22%), while potential leadership aspirant Joe Hockey’s support weighted in the other direction, with more suport from women (16% cf. 11%).
For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093 The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association. No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification. |
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