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A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights finds:

•  A majority of Australian electors (71%) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister;

•  One-in-three electors (32%) approve of the way Dr Nelson is handling his job as Opposition Leader, 42% disapprove and a large 26% can’t say;

•  In the Morgan Poll released Friday, it was found that 77% of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Dr Brendan Nelson (9%) — 14% can’t say or someone else;

•  Former Treasurer Peter Costello fared better: 67% of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Mr Costello (28%) — 5% can’t say or someone else;

•  Two-in-three (66%) electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than leadership aspirant Malcolm Turnbull (21%) — 13% can’t say or someone else.

Analysis by voting intention

Of L-NP voters:

•  A majority (52%) say Mr Rudd would be a better Prime Minister than Dr Nelson (23%) — one-quarter (25%) of L-NP supporters can’t say;

•  More than six-in-ten (63%) say Mr Costello, now a backbencher, would be a better Prime Minister than Mr Rudd (30%) — 7% can’t say;

•  Exactly half (50%) say Mr Turnbull would be a better Prime Minister than Mr Rudd (33%) — 17% can’t say.

Gary Morgan says:

“Mr Rudd’s approval rating (71%) is significantly higher than Mr Howard’s approval rating (59%) after he won the 2004 Federal election. Mr Nelson’s disapproval rating of 42% is about the same as Mr Latham’s (43%) after the 2004 Federal election.

“What should be occupying the minds of the Coalition is how the alternative leaders compare against Mr Rudd in the ‘better Prime Minister’s stakes’: Rudd 67% v Costello 28% (other/can’t say 5%); Rudd 66% v Turnbull 21% (other/can’t say 13%); Rudd 77% v Nelson 9% (other/can’t say 14%). While Mr Costello is slightly ahead of Mr Turnbull as a preferred Prime Minister, both are way behind Mr Rudd.

“Although there is a long time before the next Federal election, it is important for a credible Coalition leader to be installed now so the Opposition can be looked upon as a serious alternative.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of February 20/21, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 560 electors.

Approval of Leaders

Prime Minister

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Nov  3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007*	May 16/17, 2007*	Aug 21/22, 2007*	Feb 20/21, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	59	56	53	44	71	91	42	91	39	66
Disapprove	34	39	42	51	14	3	30	2	43	21
Can’t say	7	5	5	5	15	6	28	7	18	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard (L-NP) was Prime Minister

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Nov  3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007*	May 16/17, 2007*	Aug 21/22, 2007*	Feb 20/21, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	59	56	53	44	71	70	72	78	70	74	67
Disapprove	34	39	42	51	14	15	13	12	16	10	17
Can’t say	7	5	5	5	15	15	15	10	14	16	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* John Howard (L-NP) was Prime Minister

Opposition Leader

Respondents were asked: “Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dr Nelson is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Nov 3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007^	May 16/17, 2007^	Aug 21/22, 2007^	Feb  20/21, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	64	72	74	32	29	41	18	31	40
Disapprove	43	11	17	19	42	48	33	63	-	39
Can’t say	10	25	11	7	26	23	26	19	69	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Mark Latham (ALP) was Opposition Leader

^ Kim Beazley (ALP) was Opposition Leader

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Sex and Age
	Nov 3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007^	May 16/17, 2007^	Aug 21/22, 2007^	Feb 20/21, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	64	72	74	32	35	30	34	24	33	35
Disapprove	43	11	17	19	42	42	43	32	48	45	41
Can’t say	10	25	11	7	26	23	27	34	28	22	24
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Mark Latham (ALP) was Opposition Leader

^ Kevin Rudd (ALP) was Opposition Leader

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Nelson

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Rudd and Dr Nelson.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Rudd or Dr Nelson?”

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 2007*	Aug 2007*	Feb 21/22, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	94	52	92	60	67
Nelson	44	38	9	2	23	4	23	5
Other / Can’t say	5	10	14	4	25	4	17	28
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 2007*	Aug 2007*	Feb 21/22, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	79	75	82	80	79	72
Nelson	44	38	9	10	9	3	7	11	11
Other / Can’t say	5	10	14	11	16	15	13	10	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Costello

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Rudd and Mr Costello.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Rudd or Mr Costello?”

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 21/22, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	67	91	30	87	56	62
Costello	28	8	63	9	34	23
Other / Can’t say	5	1	7	4	10	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	67	63	71	74	69	70	63
Costello	28	32	24	23	26	27	31
Other / Can’t say	3	5	5	3	5	3	6
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Rudd or Mr Turnbull?”

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 21/22, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	87	33	81	56	77
Turnbull	21	5	50	1	23	9
Other / Can’t say	13	8	17	18	21	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	68	65	78	69	72	59
Turnbull	21	22	19	9	16	16	29
Other / Can’t say	13	10	16	13	15	12	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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