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Roy Morgan qualitative research over the last two nights (February 27/28) asked electors what concerns, if any, they currently have with the ALP and L-NP, and what specific concerns, if any, they have about the leaders of each party — Kevin Rudd and Brendan Nelson.

The latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP extending their two-party preferred lead over the Coalition with the ALP (65.5%) well ahead of the Coalition (34.5%).

Concerns since ALP has been running country:

•   Many electors expressed concern over the ALP’s recent handling of inflation and interest rates (eg. “They are uncertain about economic policies and interest rates”);

•  Another recurring theme was concern about the Government’s handling of environmental issues (eg. “I think Labor is getting the wrong advice on green and environmental issues”);

•  Some electors also cited concern about the ALP scrapping the recently introduced Industrial Relation laws (eg. “A certain amount of people got jobs because of workplace agreements”);

•  Some others expressed concern over the Prime Minister’s handling of the apology to the Stolen Generation (eg. “Apology to the Aboriginals. They said there would be no claims, but today in the paper there was a law suit”).

Concerns since Coalition has been in Opposition:

•  Many electors expressed concern about the lack of decent leadership and party unity within the Liberal party (eg. “They have no direction and the wheels have fallen off the Liberal party in Australia. They need to support their leader and stop all their in-fighting”);

•  One of the recurring concerns in regards to the Liberal Party was disappointment over the Opposition’s handling of the apology to the Stolen Generation (eg. “The way they handled the ‘apology’ on Sorry Day was disgusting, very un-Australian”);

•  A large number of electors have concerns about the Liberal’s policy direction (eg. “They are trying to justify a lot of untenable political decisions from the past”).

Concerns since Kevin Rudd became PM:

•  There is a concern among some electors that Mr Rudd places too much emphasis on public relations and not enough focus on decision-making (eg. “I think he’s more concerned about the publicity he receives than actually doing his job”);

•  A number of electors also queried whether Mr Rudd would fulfil the many promises he made during the election campaign (eg. “I think he’ll be the same as John Howard — make a lot of promises but not follow through”).

Concerns since Brendan Nelson became Opposition Leader:

•  One of the recurring themes regarding Dr Brendan Nelson’s role as Opposition Leader was his lack of profile (eg. “I don’t even know him. He’s an invisible man as far as I’m concerned”);

•  Some electors also expressed concerns over Dr Nelson’s leadership skills (eg. “To me he seems like a scared little parrot and I don’t think he will be there long”);

•  A number of electors also said they were disappointed over Dr Nelson’s handling of the recent apology to the Stolen Generation (eg. “His attitude towards Indigenous people. I don’t think he handled the apology to the Aboriginal people with as much sincerity as Labor did”).

Concerns about Labor / Liberal-National Coalition:

Electors were asked:

“What, if anything, concerns you about the way the Labor Government in Canberra is now running the country?”

“What, if anything, concerns you about the way the Liberal National Coalition in Canberra is now handling its job in Opposition?”

Concerns with Labor:

Many electors expressed concern over the ALP’s recent handling of inflation and interest rates:

“I’m concerned about interest rates going up.”

“High cost of living.”

“The inflation issue.”

“They need to do something about price levels.”

“Rising interest rates — they’re not doing much about it.”

“Labor hasn’t got a very good record of managing economics properly.”

“They’re uncertain about economic policies and interest rates.”

“Labor’s broken promises. Especially with the economy.”

Another recurring theme was concern about the Government’s handling of environmental issues:

“Peter Garrett’s portfolio. The dredging of the bay.”

“There should be less talk and more action on climate change.”

“I would like them to do more on climate change.”

“I don’t feel they are serious enough about environmental issues.”

“They need to get serious about the environment, the greenhouse effect and also about saving water and not wasting any.”

“They should be focusing more on environmental issues.”

“Probably my biggest concern would be if they are going to instigate enough measures to cope with greenhouse effects.”

“The water situation hasn’t been addressed properly.”

“I think Labor is getting the wrong advice on green and environmental issues.”

Some electors also cited concern about the ALP scrapping the recently introduced Industrial Relation laws:

“I’m concerned about the fact that they are repealing Workchoices.”

“The Industrial Relation laws.”

“Scrapping of the workplace agreements, that’s my major concern.”

“Just their performance on Industrial Relations.”

“The Workplace Relations policy.”

“What they’re going to do with the Workplace reforms.”

“A certain amount of people got jobs because of workplace agreements.”

Some others expressed concern over the Prime Minister’s handling of the apology to the Stolen Generation:

“Apology to the Aboriginals. They said there would be no claims, but today in the paper there was a law suit.”

“He said sorry and I don’t think he had a right to do that.”

“Just one thing about apologising to the Stolen Generation. They should not have done that.”

“Saying sorry worries me.”

“I don’t like that the Government said the ‘Sorry’ thing.”

Concerns with the Coalition:

Many electors expressed concerns about the lack of decent leadership and party unity within the Liberal party:

“I think they are lacking good leadership and unity.”

“They need a decent leader.”

“Too many people vying for power.”

“They’re falling apart. No party unity.”

“I think they’re a disaster at the moment. They can’t seem to agree with each other.”

“Lack of credibility of current leadership and a fair possibility that the current leader won’t be there for the long term.”

“Too fragmented and too many old politicians in.”

“I think they are a bit childish. They are like kids in playgrounds. They backstab each other and stuff like that.”

“They have no direction and the wheels have fallen off the Liberal party in Australia. They need to support their leader and stop all their in-fighting.”

One of the recurring concerns in regards to the Liberal Party was disappointment over the Opposition’s handling of the apology to the Stolen Generation:

“The way they handled the ‘apology’ on Sorry Day was disgusting, very un-Australian.”

“Probably the way they reacted to the Aboriginal Sorry Speech. The way they said it was not really their fault.”

“Very disappointed with the sorry response.”

“The handling of the ‘Sorry’ response.”

“I don’t think they are good in Indigenous affairs.”

“There’s a bit of division in the party, especially regarding the apology to the Aboriginal people.”

“I was not happy about the way they handled the “Sorry” business.”

A large number of electors have concerns about the Liberal’s policy direction:

“They really need to stop being negative and come out with a better policy.”

“They haven’t come up with policies.”

“I don’t agree with their policies.”

“The fact that they are not looking at issues that can help the country.”

“They are unsure of where they stand on any policy issue. They are always changing their minds.”

“Education, health, equal rights, unfair wages, they do nothing.”

“They are trying to justify a lot of untenable political decisions from the past.”

Concerns about Kevin Rudd / Brendan Nelson:

Electors were asked:

“What, if anything, concerns you about the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

“What, if anything, concerns you about the way Brendan Nelson is handling his job as Opposition Leader?”

Concerns with Rudd:

There is a concern among some electors that Mr Rudd places too much emphasis on public relations and not enough focus on decision-making:

“He seems to be going after easy, popular stunts.”

“He is soft on substance.”

“I’ve always seen him being a bit of a media tart.”

“I think Mr Rudd is trying to be too popular.”

“At the moment he’s managing the country by committee.”

“I think he’s more concerned about the publicity he receives than actually doing his job.”

“With Mr Rudd, it’s all show, no action.”

“Mr Rudd is too concerned about making everything sound good.”

A number of electors also queried whether Mr Rudd would fulfil the many promises he made during the election campaign:

“I’m concerned he won’t go through with what he proposed in regards to Aboriginal issues — he needs to stand firm in regards to improving their social aspects.  He realises that it is a really big task.”

“I would like to see Mr Rudd prove himself by keeping all of his promises.”

“Mr Rudd made a lot of pre-election financial promises, but I don’t think he is a financially sound manager.”

“He’s spending all his time smiling, saying ‘We’ll be right’, but he’s doing little and not fulfilling all of his promises.”

“I just don’t trust him — he’s promising things that he has no idea about.”

“I think he’ll be the same as John Howard — make a lot of promises but not follow through.”

Concerns with Nelson:

One of the recurring themes regarding Dr Brendan Nelson’s role as Opposition Leader was his lack of profile:

“There’s not a very high profile of him in the press at the moment.”

“I haven’t seen much of him at this early stage of the new Government.”

“Maybe we need to see a bit more of him.”

“I don’t even know him. He’s an invisible man as far as I’m concerned.”

“Brendan Nelson — no one knows about him.”

“I don’t think people know enough about him.”

“I don’t think he’s promoting himself enough.”

Some electors also expressed concerns over Dr Nelson’s leadership skills:

“He’s not showing himself as being strong enough to be a leader.”

“He’s a bit ineffectual — doesn’t have control.”

“Not nearly strong enough or forthright enough to be leader.”

“He is very wishy washy. He isn’t showing strong leadership.”

“He hasn’t stood on his own merit and has been listening to his party too much.”

“The role’s too big for him.”

“To me he seems like a scared little parrot and I don’t think he will be there long.”

“Brendan Nelson is a dead duck. He’s having trouble getting his troops behind him.”

“He needs to stamp his authority more.”

A number of electors also said they were disappointed over Dr Nelson’s handling of the recent apology to the Stolen Generation:

“If he’s going to say sorry he should at least mean it.”

“I think he can be a bit outspoken at times, like in the ‘sorry’ speech.”

“His attitude towards Indigenous people. I don’t think he handled the apology to the Aboriginal people with as much sincerity as Labor did.”

“His response when Kevin Rudd gave his apology — he made a mess of it.”

“Comments he made to the Stolen Generation on ‘Sorry Day’ were appalling.”

“His entire reaction to the ‘Sorry’ campaign.”

“He may be passionate about Aboriginal welfare but he didn’t do a good job demonstrating it.”

“I think he was a bit obnoxious about the apology.”

“His lack of sensitivity recently when apologising to the Stolen Generation.”

“I don’t think he handled the apology that well.”

These are the main findings of a special telephone Morgan Poll, conducted February 27/28, 2008, with 559 Australian electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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