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The Opposition National Party 51% (up 1.5%) has maintained its lead over the Labour Government 34% (down 1%) at 17% (up 2.5%). The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to 108 (down 10.5pts) while in the same period the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has dropped sharply to 106.6 (down 10.2pts). These are the key findings of the latest New Zealand Morgan Poll.

Results for the minor parties are mixed. Support for the Greens has slipped for the third survey in a row at 6.5% (down 0.5%). New Zealand First support has also dropped, to 3% (down 1%).

The Maori Party support is at 2% (unchanged), while support has increased for both United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and ACT NZ 1.5% (up 0.5%). The Progressive Alliance support remains weak at 0.5% (unchanged).

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”

Of electors who said they were likely to vote (90.5%, unchanged), 7.5% (up 0.5%) were undecided on who they would vote for.

Gary Morgan says:

“The drop in Consumer Confidence in New Zealand, down to a near record low of 106.6 should be a concern for Helen Clark. As well, the Opposition National Party has maintained its Election winning lead over the Government as the worsening economic conditions start to impact upon New Zealanders.

“The unhelpful comments this week by Finance Minister Michael Cullen, who gave voice to fears New Zealand may be headed for a recession, are clearly something the Government can do without as it attempts to claw back ground on the National Party heading towards the elections later in the year.

“The consistent lead the National Party has held over the past year means winning re-election for Helen Clark and her Government is her biggest challenge since becoming Prime Minister.”

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 822 electors between March 3-16, 2008.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	Labour	National	Progressive Party	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	41.3	20.9	1.7	10.4	7	6.7	n/a	7.1	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	41.1	39.1	1.16	5.72	5.3	2.67	2.12	1.51	2.48
MORGAN POLL
September 20 - October 2, 2005	36.5	41.5	1	4.5	9	3	1	1.5	3
October 4-16, 2005	39	40.5	1	5	7	3.5	2	1.5	0.5
October 18-31, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	6	9	3.5	1	1	1.5
November 1-14, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	7	7	3	2	2	1
November 15-27, 2005	39	40.5	1	5.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	1
November 28 - December 9, 2005	40	40	0.5	6	7.5	2.5	1	1.5	1
January 4-12, 2006	40.5	42.5	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	2	0.5	1.5
January 13—23, 2006	39	40.5	0	4.5	8.5	3	1.5	1.5	1.5
January 24 - February 5, 2006	38.5	39	0.5	5.5	9.5	3	1.5	2.5	0
February 7-19, 2006	40	40	0.5	3.5	10	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
February 22 - March 6, 2006	43	39	0.5	4.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1
March 7-19, 2006	42.5	41	0	3.5	7.5	2	2	1	0.5
March 20 - April 2, 2006	40	43	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1.5
April 3-16, 2006	41.5	40	1	3.5	7	2	2	2.5	0.5
April 17-30, 2006	40.5	40.5	0.5	3.5	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	-
May 1-14, 2006	39.5	41	0.5	5	7.5	3	1	1.5	1
May 15-28, 2006	41	44	0.5	3	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
May 29 — June 11, 2006	40	44.5	-	4.5	6.5	2	1	1.5	-
June 12-25, 2006	37	45	0.5	5	6.5	1.5	2	1.5	1
July 3-16, 2006	43	39	-	4.5	8	2	1	1.5	1
July 17 - 30, 2006	40	42	-	3.5	8.5	2	2	1	1
July 31 - August 13, 2006	39	41	-	3.5	9	3	2	1.5	1
August 14-27, 2006	38.5	44	0.5	4	7	1	2.5	1.5	1
August 28 - September 10, 2006	41	38	0.5	5.5	8.5	2	3	1.5	^
September 16 - October 1, 2006	36	41.5	-	7	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
October 2-15, 2006	40	40	^	5	8.5	1.5	1.5	2	1.5
October 16-29, 2006	38.5	41	^	3	8	3	2.5	1.5	2.5
October 30 — November 12, 2006	38.5	42.5	0.5	5	7.5	1.5	2.5	0.5	1.5
November 13 - 26, 2006	37.5	42.5	^	4.5	8	3	2	1.5	1
November 27 - December 12, 2006	37.5	44.5	0.5	4	9.5	2	1	0.5	0.5
January 3-21, 2007	41	41	0.5	4	7.5	1	2	1.5	1.5
January 23 - February 5, 2007	39.5	41.5	0.5	4	8	1.5	2	2.5	0.5
February 6-18, 2007	36	48.5	^	3	8.5	1.5	1.5	1	-
February 19 - March 4, 2007	36	45	0.5	2	8.5	1.5	3.5	2.5	0.5
March 5-18, 2007	37.5	45	^	4	7.5	1.5	3.5	1	-
March 19 - April 2, 2007	35.5	46	^	3.5	9.5	1	2.5	1	1
April 3-16, 2007	33.5	45.5	^	6	8.5	2	2	1	1.5
April 23 - May 6, 2007	36	49.5	^	4.5	6	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.5
May 7-20, 2007	32	49	0.5	4.5	7	1.5	2.5	1.5	1.5
May 21 - June 3, 2007	33.5	50.5	-	3.5	6.5	2	1.5	2	0.5
June 4-17, 2007	36	49.5	0.5	3	6.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1
June 18 - July 1, 2007	34	48.5	1	2.5	8.5	1.5	2	1	1
July 2-15, 2007	36	47	0.5	5	6.5	1	2	1.5	0.5
July 16-29, 2007	35	49	0.5	4	6	0.5	3	0.5	1.5
July 30 - August 12, 2007	31	50.5	0.5	4	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
August 20 - September 2, 2007	34	48	0.5	2.5	9.5	0.5	3	1	1
September 3-16, 2007	35	49	^	2.5	7.5	1	3	1.5	0.5
September 17-30, 2007	33	48.5	0.5	3	9.5	1.5	2.5	1	0.5
October 1-14, 2007	39	45.5	^	3	7.5	1.5	2	0.5	1
October 15-28, 2007	40.5	45	^	3.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	0.5
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007	34	48	^	5.5	7.5	1	2.5	1	0.5
November 12-25, 2007	35	48	0.5	5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
November 26-December 9, 2007	34.5	47.5	0.5	5	6	1.5	2	2	1
January 3-20, 2008	33.5	52	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	2	1	0.5
January 21-February 3, 2008	36.5	45.5	0.5	4	9	0.5	1.5	2	0.5
February 4-17, 2008	32.5	51.5	0.5	3	8	0.5	3	0.5	0.5
February 18-March 2, 2008	35	49.5	0.5	4	7	0.5	2	1	0.5
March 3-16, 2008	34	51	0.5	3	6.5	1	2	1.5	0.5

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Aug 20-Sep 2, 2007	Sep 3-16, 2007	Sep 17-30, 2007	Oct 1-14, 2007	Oct 15-28, 2007	Oct 29-Nov 11, 2007	Nov 12-25, 2007	Nov 26-Dec 9, 2007	Jan 3-20, 2008	Jan 21-Feb 3, 2008	Feb 4-17, 2008	Feb 18-Mar 2, 2008	Mar 3-16, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51.5	54	49.5	53	50.5	43.5	47	47.5	46.5	46	47	52.5	45.5
Wrong direction	35.5	32.5	34.5	32	33	37.5	37	38	39	38.5	41	34	37.5
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	121.5	115	121	117.5	106	110	109.5	107.5	107.5	106	118.5	108
Can’t say	13	13.5	16	15	16.5	19	16	14.5	14.5	15.5	12	13.5	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Finding No. 4280 is taken from Computer Report No. 2243

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

Finding No. 4280 is taken from Computer Report No. 2243

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