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ALP primary support is 55% (up 1.5% from the previous Morgan Poll conducted March 11/12), while LNP support is down 3% to 31%, the latest Morgan Poll (conducted March 15/16 & 22/23) finds.

On a two-party preferred basis, the ALP continues to hold a massive lead over the Coalition: 63.5% cf. 36.5%.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 7% (up 1.5%), Family First 3% (up 1.5%), and Others 4% (down 1.5%).

There has been a small increase in the number of Australians (53.5%, up 2%) who say Australia is “heading in the right direction” following a massive fall in the previous Morgan Poll.  The number of Australians who think the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction” is down 2% to 27.5%, while 19% (unchanged) are undecided.

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (GCR) is 126 points (up 4 points).  The GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of Australians who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in the wrong direction”.

Gary Morgan says:                   

“After making up a small amount of ground in the previous Morgan Poll, the Coalition has been unable to continue this momentum: the ALP has increased its two-party lead by 5% to 27%, 63.5% cf. 36.5%.

 “There has failed to be a significant bounce back in the number of Australians who say the country is ‘heading in the right direction’.  The previous Morgan Poll reported the ALP’s lowest result (51.5%, down 11%) since coming to power late last year and although this figure has improved 2% to 53.5%, it is still well behind the 64% than was recorded in December and January.

“Coalition supporters will be hoping that Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s current overseas trip is seen as self-promotion and a ‘junket’ rather than a ‘fact-finding’ mission — an unlikely proposition as electors like international promotion!”

The Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted face-to-face on the weekends of March 15/16 & 22/23, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,651 electors.  Of all electors surveyed, 4.5% (up 0.5%) did not name a party.

The Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted on the weekends of March 26/27, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,325 electors.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

During the period:

• Prime Minister Kevin Rudd ordered a review to examine the reduction of spin rates on poker machines;
• Record crowds flocked to Albert Park to enjoy the 2008 Australian Formula 1 Grand Prix;
• The shipwreck of the HMAS Sydney which was lost in battle in 1941 resulting in the death of all 645 people on board, was discovered;
• Prime Minister Kevin Rudd came under fire for a 2006 trip to Sudan, the US, China and England — all paid for by AustChina Technology; and
• Threats to boycott China Olympics came to light after China moved large numbers of troops into Tibet following the violent protests against Chinese rule.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

** Phone Poll

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

** Phone Poll

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Respondents were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

** Phone Poll

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4281 is taken from Computer Report No. 2244

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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