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COMPANY ONLINE STORE PRODUCTS SERVICES INDUSTRIES MORGAN POLL PAPERS PRESS RELEASES CONSUMER CONFIDENCE READERSHIP UNEMPLOYMENT THE REACTOR 
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ALP Honeymoon Over Before Their First Federal Budget
On the eve of the Federal Budget, ALP support is 47% (down 5.5% in a week and 7.5% since late April) - its lowest level since the ALP won the Federal election on November 24, 2007. L-NP support is 37%, Greens 9%, Family First 1% and Others 6%, according to a special telephone Morgan Poll taken late last week and over last weekend (May 7-11, 2008). Despite the drop in ALP support the ALP would still be re-elected with an increased majority if the election were held today. On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 58% (L-NP 42%) - significantly higher than the November 24 Federal Election (ALP 52.7% cf. L-NP 47.3%) but down 4% in a week and down 3.5% since late April. Following a series of RBA interest rate rises, Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence falling below 100 (97.1) and support for the ALP at its lowest level since the Federal election, the ALP’s first Federal Budget in 13 years is crucial for their standing in the electorate. Now 52% (down 4.5%) of electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction”, 29% wrong direction, and a relatively high 19% undecided - the Federal Budget is also an important opportunity for the ALP to shore-up the Australian electorate’s confidence in the direction the ALP is taking the country. Gary Morgan says:
This special telephone Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted May 7-11, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 618 electors. Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
For further information: Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
Note: National Party results are in brackets # Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution ^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle * The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
** Phone Poll ^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle THINK WILL WIN Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
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Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method. * Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors). The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election. Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading. The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.” View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification. |
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