Rudd Government Support Up After Budget
| Finding No. 4296 -
May 23, 2008 |
The first Morgan Poll taken after the Rudd Government’s first Budget finds ALP support up 4.5% to 51.5% and L-NP support down 2% to 35%. Support for the Greens is down 0.5% to 8.5%, Family First unchanged at 1% and Others down 2% to 4%.
On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is up 2.5% to 60.5% from before the Budget while L-NP support is down 2.5% to 39.5%.
After the delivery of the Budget 56% (up 4%) of electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction”, 26% (down 3%) “heading in the wrong direction” and 18% are undecided.
Gary Morgan says:
“The Rudd Government’s first Budget has the “thumbs up” — 56.5% of Australians (up 4.5%) now say that Australia is “heading in the right direction” — a strong endorsement of the Government’s Budget.
“The hard work does not stop however. The 15 year lows in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating show that Australians are worried about the tough economic times that Australians are facing. Australians saying now is a “good time to buy major household items” has dropped from 52% in January to 34% in May.
“Soaring petrol prices are putting a strain on family budgets and working Australians need relief at the bowser if they’re not to stop spending on the retail purchases and internal travel that help "prop up" the economy.
“Brendan Nelson’s pledge to cut the fuel excise by 5c is a small step in the right direction that the Rudd Government should follow — why not a 15c cut?
“Either the RBA must cut the high interest rates at its next meeting or the Rudd Government needs to respond to current concerns or risk sending Australians into a recession “we don’t have to have.”
This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted face-to-face over the period May 17-18, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,055 electors.
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
|
|
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
|
|
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First# |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
† |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3, 1998^ |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
† |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
† |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.5) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face: Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32(2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5(3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004.
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998^ |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
| Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
34.5 |
65 |
35 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
64 |
36 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
64 |
36 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
** Phone Poll
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
| Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
| Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
| Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
| Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
| Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
| Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
| Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
| Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
| Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
| Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
| Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4. 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
55.5 |
49 |
49 |
48.5 |
47 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
49.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
32.5 |
33.5 |
31 |
30 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
33 |
34.5 |
37 |
32 |
32 |
34.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
117.5 |
116 |
118 |
120.5 |
125.5 |
115.5 |
114.5 |
115.5 |
112.5 |
111 |
120.5 |
120 |
115 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
19 |
15 |
17.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
16 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government |
| |
Oct
6/7 |
Oct
13/14 |
Oct
17/18 |
Oct
20/21 |
Oct
24/25 |
Oct
27/28 |
Nov
3/4 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
10/11 |
Nov
15-17 |
Nov
17/18 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
23 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
53 |
57.5 |
53 |
53.5 |
63.5 |
56 |
50 |
55.5 |
55.5 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
54 |
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
29 |
31.5 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
31 |
29 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
30 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
124.5 |
128.5 |
121.5 |
123.5 |
135.5 |
126 |
119.5 |
124.5 |
126.5 |
111 |
122.5 |
118 |
124 |
|
Can’t say |
18.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
8.5 |
14 |
19.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
15 |
17.5 |
14 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government |
| |
Dec
5/6 |
Dec 1/2
& 8/9 |
Jan 5/6
& 12/13 |
Jan
23/24 |
Jan 19/20
& 26/27 |
Jan
30/31 |
Feb 2/3
& 9/10 |
Feb 16/17
& 23/24 |
Mar 1/2
& 8/9 |
Mar
11/12 |
Mar 15/16
& 22/23 |
Mar 26/27
& Apr 2/3 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
64 |
64 |
61 |
59.5 |
62 |
62.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
51.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
|
Wrong direction |
15.5 |
16.5 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
18.5 |
22 |
20 |
29.5 |
27.5 |
26.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
144.5 |
147.5 |
147 |
142 |
139.5 |
142 |
144 |
139 |
142.5 |
122 |
126 |
127.5 |
|
Can’t say |
24.5 |
19.5 |
19 |
20 |
20.5 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
17.5 |
19 |
19 |
19.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government |
| |
Apr
5/6 |
Apr
9/10 |
Apr
12/13 |
Apr 16/17 |
Apr 19/20
& 26/27 |
May 3/4 |
May 7-11 |
May
17/18 |
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
56.5 |
49.5 |
59 |
55 |
59 |
56.5 |
52 |
56 |
|
Wrong direction |
25 |
26 |
23 |
26.5 |
27.5 |
25.5 |
29 |
26 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
131.5 |
123.5 |
136 |
128.5 |
131.5 |
131 |
123 |
130 |
|
Can’t say |
18.5 |
24.5 |
18 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 | Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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