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Last weekend’s “face-to-face” Morgan Poll following the widely publicised dispute between Nelson and Turnbull on cutting fuel excise by 5 cents had ALP support up 1.5% to 53%, L-NP support down 1% to 34%, the Greens down 3% to 5.5%, Family First at 2.5% (up 1.5%) and Independents/Others at 5% (up 1%).

On a two-party preferred basis support for the ALP is 61% (up 0.5%) well ahead of the L-NP 39% (down 0.5%).

Despite a rise in the ALP vote, Australians are less positive about the direction the country is heading in. Now 31.5% (up 5.5%) of electors say “Australia is heading in the wrong direction”, 53% (down 3%) of electors believe “Australia is heading in the right direction” and 15.5% (down 2.5%) are “undecided”. These are the key results of the latest Morgan Poll taken on the weekend of May 24/25, 2008.

Concern about the direction Australia is heading in is reflected in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating declining to 97.1 (it’s lowest level since 1993) and the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating falling to 121.5 (down 8.5) — it’s lowest level under the Rudd Government.

Gary Morgan says:                    

“Last weekend’s Morgan Poll shows that the signs are negative — Consumer Confidence at 97.1 and a high 31.5% (up 6%) of Australians now say “Australia is heading in the wrong direction.”

“However, the ALP vote is still strong because the L-NP dispute between Nelson and Turnbull  prevented the Coalition from increasing their vote at the expense of Labor.

“This weekend’s Morgan Poll will measure the effect on voting preferences caused by the recent ALP disunity on how to deal with rising petrol prices.”

This Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted face-to-face over the period May 24/25, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 842 electors.

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

			The	Family	Ind./
	ALP	L-NP	Greens	First#	Others
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	38.8	47.3 (8.6)	1.7	†	12.2
Election October 3, 1998^	40.1	39.5 (5.3)	2.1	†	18.3
Election November 10, 2001	37.8	43 (5.6)	4.4	†	13.8
Election October 9, 2004	37.6	46.4 (5.9)	7.2	2.0	6.8
Election November 24, 2007	43.4	42.1 (5.5)	7.8	2.0	4.7
MORGAN POLL
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)	49	36.5 (3.5)	7	1.5	6
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face: Face)	49.5	34 (2.5)	10.5	2.5	3.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	51.5	33 (2.5)	8	2	5.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)	53	32(2)	10	1	4
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face)	49	36 (3)	8.5	1.5	5
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)	50	34.5 (3)	8	1	6.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)	54	33 (3)	7.5	1.5	4
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)	56.5	31.5(3)	6.5	1.5	4
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)	55.5	30.5 (2.5)	9	1.5	3.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)	53.5	34 (2.5)	5.5	1.5	5.5
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)	55	31 (2)	7	3	4
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)	51	34 (2)	7.5	2	5.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	53.5	33.5 (2)	7.5	1.5	4
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)	54	32 (3)	8.5	1	4.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	54	33.5 (4.5)	6.5	1	5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)	55	33 (2.5)	6	1	5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	54.5	33.5 (3.5)	5.5	2.5	4
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)	52.5	32.5 (2)	8	2	5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)	47	37 (2.5)	9	1	6
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)	51.5	35 (2.5)	8	1	4
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)	53	34(3)	5.5	2.5	5

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP
	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	46.4	53.6
Election October 3, 1998^	51	49
Election November 10, 2001	49	51
Election October 9, 2004	47.3	52.7
Election November 24, 2007	52.7	47.3
MORGAN POLL	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election
	%	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)	58.5	41.5	58.5	41.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)	61.5	38.5	60.5	39.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	62	38	61.5	38.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)	63	37	63	37
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	60	40	59	41
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)	60	40	60	40
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)	63	37	62.5	37.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)	64.5	35.5	64.5	35.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)	65.5	34.5	65	35
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)	62	38	61	39
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)	63.5	36.5	63.5	36.5
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)	61.5	38.5	60.5	39.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	61.5	38.5	62	38
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)	64.5	35.5	63.5	36.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	62.5	37.5	62	38
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)	64	36	62.5	37.5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	62.5	37.5	61.5	38.5
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)	64	36	62	38
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone)	58	42	58	42
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)	61	39	60.5	39.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)	62	38	61	39

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	ALP	L-NP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)	58	14.5	27.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)	61	17	22
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	65	15	20
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)	65	10.5	24.5
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	64	16	20
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)	65.5	9	25.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)	65.5	17	17.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)	69.5	15	15.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)	70.5	14	15.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)	71	13	16
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)	70.5	14.5	15
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)	71.5	12.5	16
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	71.5	15	13.5
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)	71.5	10	15
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	72	15.5	12.5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)	73	12	15
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	72.5	15.5	12
May 3/4. 2008 (Face : Face)	72.5	14	13.5
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone)	70.5	11.5	18
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)	69.5	17	13.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face	68	15.5	16.5

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15	July 21/22 & 28/29	Aug 4/5 & 11/12	Aug 18/19 & 25/26	Sep 1/2	Sep 8/9	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30
	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50.5	48.5	51.5	51.5	55.5	49	49	48.5	47	48	52.5	52	49.5
Wrong direction	33	32.5	33.5	31	30	33.5	34.5	33	34.5	37	32	32	34.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	117.5	116	118	120.5	125.5	115.5	114.5	115.5	112.5	111	120.5	120	115
Can’t say	16.5	19	15	17.5	14.5	17.5	16.5	18.5	18.5	15	15.5	16	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	Oct 6/7	Oct 13/14	Oct 17/18	Oct 20/21	Oct 24/25	Oct 27/28	Nov 3/4	Nov 7/8	Nov 10/11	Nov 15-17	Nov 17/18	Nov 21/22	Nov 23
	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Phone
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	53	57.5	53	53.5	63.5	56	50	55.5	55.5	48	52.5	52	54
Wrong direction	28.5	29	31.5	30	28	30	30.5	31	29	37	30	34	30
Roy Morgan GCR*	124.5	128.5	121.5	123.5	135.5	126	119.5	124.5	126.5	111	122.5	118	124
Can’t say	18.5	13.5	15.5	16.5	8.5	14	19.5	13.5	15.5	15	17.5	14	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government
	Dec 5/6	Dec 1/2 & 8/9	Jan 5/6 & 12/13	Jan 23/24	Jan 19/20 & 26/27	Jan 30/31	Feb 2/3 & 9/10	Feb 16/17 & 23/24	Mar 1/2 & 8/9	Mar 11/12	Mar 15/16 & 22/23	Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3
	Phone	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	60	64	64	61	59.5	62	62.5	61	62.5	51.5	53.5	54
Wrong direction	15.5	16.5	17	19	20	20	18.5	22	20	29.5	27.5	26.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	144.5	147.5	147	142	139.5	142	144	139	142.5	122	126	127.5
Can’t say	24.5	19.5	19	20	20.5	18	19	17	17.5	19	19	19.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government
	Apr 5/6	Apr 9/10	Apr 12/13	Apr 16/17	Apr 19/20 & 26/27	May 3/4	May 7-11	May 17/18	May 24/25
	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Face
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	56.5	49.5	59	55	59	56.5	52	56	53
Wrong direction	25	26	23	26.5	27.5	25.5	29	25	31.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	131.5	123.5	136	128.5	131.5	131	123	130	121.5
Can’t say	18.5	24.5	18	18.5	13.5	18	19	18	15.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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