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Special Morgan Poll qualitative research, conducted on June 4-9, 2008, asked electors to describe those concerns they have for the way the ALP Government and L-NP Opposition are handling their jobs, and their concerns for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson’s job performance.

• Many electors (10%) say they are concerned about the Labor Party’s economic management and proficiency in dealing with policy issues that impact interest rates and inflation, including the rising prices of petrol and food.

• The biggest concern (7%) electors have about Prime Minister Kevin Rudd is that he is trying to do too much, and 5.5% of electors claim not to trust him because of broken election promises.

• When considering the Liberal Party, 16.5% of electors are concerned about the disunity and infighting that are affecting the performance the Liberal Party as an effective Opposition.

• The largest concern (9%) electors have with Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson is his lack of leadership ability to stop Liberal Party in-fighting, and 5.5% believe he is the wrong person to lead the Liberal Party.

The latest Morgan Poll Federal Vote finds a drop in primary support for the Labor Government (48.5%, down 4% in a week), while L-NP support is up 4.5% to 36%.  The two-party preferred vote is ALP 58.5% (down 4.5%) and L-NP 41.5% (up 4.5%).

Gary Morgan says:

“Although the latest Morgan Poll shows the ALP still well ahead with 58.5%, this latest qualitative research shows clearly the honeymoon is over. The electorate is concerned about the economic situation and is finding it difficult to reconcile the Rudd ALP pre-election promises and vision into their performance in the early part of their term in office.

 

“However, while the L-NP is not seen to be a credible alternative — disunity, lack of “clarity of vision”, policies etc. are plaguing the Opposition and Brendan Nelson is not seen as able to provide the needed leadership, the ALP is still the electorate’s choice.”

This Special Morgan Poll on Concerns about Kevin Rudd, Brendan Nelson and the ALP and L-NP parties was conducted during the week of June 4-9, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,086 electors.

Special Roy Morgan Qualitative Research was conducted during the week of June 4-9, in which electors gave their concerns about the ALP Government, L-NP Opposition, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson.

Electors were asked, “What, if anything, concerns you about the way the Labor Government is now running the country?”

Many respondents say they’re concerned with the economic management abilities, their approach to the environment and a history of broken promises of the ALP Government:

“Don’t like it’s economic approach … I don’t think it is business friendly.”

“They’re all full of wind.  They will just spend and put the country back into the red again and the Liberals will have to come and get them out, again.”

“They are good at spending our money and not taking care of people.  They spend the money too quickly.”

 “Not enough money to keep a family together.  Interest rates a big stress on everyone and Education is a big stress as well.  Many people can’t afford to buy good food for their children, leading to obesity?”

“Modern speak has too much spin and not enough action, they are not walking their talk!”

“Not enough attention to water irrigation in South Australia.”

“I think it hasn’t taken them long to break promises or back track on statements made during pre-election announcements.”

“They have a different ethos to Social issues from Liberal, e.g. maternity leave.  I’m concerned they have too much influence from Trade Unions in terms of Government policies.”

“Not moving quickly enough in climate change.”

“Tax cuts, not enough money spent on the environment.  They have spent too much money on the tax cuts.”

“Just waiting for all the promises to be fulfilled, seems to be a little bit of non-progress happening.”

“Us and them — it’s all about mediocrity.  You get rewarded for being mediocre at the moment — it’s all talk.”

“A lot of talk — not a lot of action.  What they are doing with Medicare and people not having to work for the dole.”

The rising prices of petrol and food and other goods are of particular concern to Australian:.

“The price of petrol and the business of carbon emissions — if we all use public transport, it will help solve global warming.”

“They haven’t got an original idea and they don’t know what they’re doing, just take a look at Rudd ruining the petrol commission.”

“Petrol prices.”

“The price of petrol and food — and the poor condition of our roads.”

“All the issues with the petrol prices.”

“Petrol prices are TOO HIGH.”

“The prices of everything — particularly food and petrol prices.”

“Its not that good really, look at the price of fuel! The prices of everything like groceries, fuel — just all that general stuff has gone up.”

“The two main things would be fuel prices and mortgage rates. The way they’ve just gone up and up and up and families and singles are struggling.”

Electors were asked, “What, if anything, concerns you about the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

Kevin Rudd’s intense workload and his desire to do everything all at once are of concern to electors. Australians also feel that Rudd has not fulfilled a lot of his election promises.

“I hope he gets enough sleep.”

“I just think he is trying to do too much, too soon.  He’s not thinking about long term issues.  He’s trying to please everyone and it can’t be done.”

“He doesn’t keep his election promises and he’s not doing anything to help the country.  He’s not doing anything about interest rates.”

“I think he will burn himself out.  I think he is not delegating enough and he is just the front man all the time.  I feel he’ll burn himself out as he is trying to do too much.”

“He is indecisive and he listens to other people too much.  I didn’t agree about the 2020 Summit including the celebrities.  It’s the commoner’s involvement that is more important.”

“Not a lot of action on the Environmental issues that were promised as a part of his platform before the election.”

“He seems to be removed, as in he’s too wealthy and is not interested in the little people.”

“Gives in to the Liberal leader too much.  Gets on with a lot of things, but not the important things such as Global Warming.”

“A lot of his campaign promises are not being followed up, including promises not to spend Budget money.  Interest rates have risen, which he said would not happen — has got the vote from home owners and is spending money he said he would not do.”

“They are overlooking the aged pensioners.”

Electors were then asked, “What, if anything, concerns you about the way the Liberal National Coalition in Canberra is now handling its job in Opposition?”

Electors are concerned that disunity, party instability and infighting is not leaving the Liberal — National Party as a credible alternative Government:

“I just wish they’d stop squabbling amongst themselves.  They seem quite childish with the things that they are doing.  I disapprove of the dragging up of minor, personal misdemeanours of the Politicians.  I think it’s miserable.”

“Not a good leader, not strong enough.”

“I think there is too much fighting between Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull.”

 “They’re divided: they’re not offering much as an opponent — they’re not consolidated as a front.  They’re shooting themselves in the foot.”

“I think they have chosen the wrong leader.  They seem to be in disarray.  They just don’t appeal to me.”

“The most concerning thing with the Liberal Party at the moment is their lack of speed in restructuring and sorting out their own game plan.”

“They are not being very professional.  A lot of in-fighting.  They need to move on and become a united group again rather than bickering.”

“They’re always complaining.  They would be much more believable if they supported something instead of constantly criticizing everything.”

“Other than their total incompetence, I don’t think they know what there are trying to do!”

“They are simply, blindly, complaining about everything.”

“I think they are in a state of restructure and until they decide on Leadership, there is no chance for advancement.”

“I think that Brendan Nelson is only warming the seat for Turnbull.”

Electors were then asked, “What, if anything, concerns you about the way Brendan Nelson is handling his job as Opposition Leader?”

The public perceive Brendan Nelson to be the wrong person to lead the Liberal Party as he has not demonstrated policy leadership in creating a united party, or decisively driven the development of new Liberal policy.

“He needs to pull the party together, construct a good plan for petrol taxes, housing for the elderly and career help for the young.”

“Not very happy with him — he seems to be floundering and he should have stayed in doctoring.”

“I don’t know what he is doing — he’s not a true leader.  He could be in a group that follows the Cabinet, but he’s not the leader of the Cabinet.”

“I just don’t trust him.  I just don’t believe him.  He changes his mind on things.  He has screwed the pensioners and he’s let them down.”

“He seems to be a nice enough man, but he is not a leader.  He is just too weak.”

“He is trying, but he is not doing very well.”

“He is not looking at the big picture.  They are accusing the Labor Party of not doing the things they didn’t do while they were the Government.”

“He doesn’t seem to be coming up with constructive solutions to problems.”

“He has no party support.  Every morning I wake up and wonder if he’ll still be the leader of the Liberal Party.”

“My concern with him is that he is having problems holding onto hi own leadership because of internal squabbles, affecting the overall performance of the Opposition Party.”

“I think he is doing a really good job of ruining the Liberal Party if that’s possible with all the bickering and fighting about the mess that was left behind that they were responsible for.”

“He’s not the person to be there and it’s only a matter of time before he goes.  I don’t think he has the respect of the average person at all.”

“He is not concentrating on the important issues — just on running a smear campaign against Labor.  He is not coming up with any substitute ideas.”

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

About Roy Morgan Research:

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Indonesia. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has more than 65 years experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on print media measurement, financial behaviour, voting intention and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.

About Roy Morgan Research:

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Indonesia. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has more than 65 years experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on print media measurement, financial behaviour, voting intention and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors). The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).   The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election. Note: Regarding the 2004 Federal election, the recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading. The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.” The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member. No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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