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Special Morgan Poll ‘Qualitative Research’, conducted on June 4-9, 2008, asked electors to describe those ‘concerns’ they have for the way the ALP Government and L-NP Opposition are handling their jobs, and their concerns for Prime Minister Kevin Rudd and Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson’s job performance.

When asked “What, if anything, ‘concerns’ you about the way the Labor Government in Canberra is now running the country?” electors (10%) are most ‘concerned’ about the ALP Government’s ‘Economic Management’ with more L-NP supporters (12.5%) ‘concerned’ than ALP supporters (9%) or Greens supporters (8.5%).

Petrol prices are a ‘concern’ for 9% of electors with ALP supporters (11%) the most ‘concerned’ ahead of Greens supporters (9.5%) and L-NP supporters (6%).

‘Leadership within the ALP Government’ is a ‘concern’ of 9% of electors. L-NP supporters (16%) are far more ‘concerned’ about ‘Leadership within the ALP Government’ than ALP supporters (5%) or Greens supporters (4%). L-NP supporters (8.5%) cited inaction through too many meetings/committees and a lack of leadership attributes (i.e. Courage, charisma and strength) as major ‘concerns’.

When asked “What, if anything, ‘concerns’ you about the way the Liberal-National Coalition in Canberra is now handling its job in Opposition?”, Leadership is a significant ‘concern’ amongst electors (17.5%) with L-NP supporters (21%) more ‘concerned’ than ALP supporters (15.5%). The leadership attributes of ‘Courage, charisma and strength’ were cited by Liberal (11%), Labor (8.5%) and National Party (7%) supporters as Coalition ‘concerns’; and National Party supporters (10%) are ‘concerned’ that the L-NP Opposition does not deliver alternative policies.

Petrol prices are a major Coalition ‘concern’ to 15.5% of National Party supporters. Many National Party supporters (5%) said they did not see the point of FuelWatch.

When asked “What, if anything, ‘concerns’ you about the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?” electors say that they are most ‘concerned’ about Rudd’s Leadership (8%). L-NP supporters (13%) and Greens supporters (8%) are more ‘concerned’ than ALP supporters (3.5%). L-NP supporters cited perceived inaction through too many meetings/committees (8%) and the lack of the leadership attributes of courage, charisma and strength (4%) as their major ‘Leadership concerns’.

When asked, “What, if anything, ‘concerns’ you about the way Brendan Nelson is handling his job as Opposition Leader?” 17% of electors cited ‘Leadership concerns’ about Brendan Nelson. L-NP supporters (20.5%) are the most ‘concerned’ about Brendan Nelson’s leadership, ahead of ALP supporters (15%) and Greens supporters (14%). L-NP supporters (12%) were specifically ‘concerned’ that Nelson lacks the Leadership attributes of ‘Courage, charisma and strength.’

Disunity/ Party instability/ Infighting around Brendan Nelson is a ‘concern’ for 8% of electors. Supporters of the ALP (9%) are most ‘concerned’ about the handling of Disunity/ Party instability/ Infighting by Brendan Nelson compared to L-NP supporters (7%) and Greens supporters (5%).

This Special Morgan Poll on ‘Concerns’ about the ALP and L-NP parties and their respective leaders Kevin Rudd and Brendan Nelson was conducted during the week of June 4-9, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,086 electors.

Table 1 — “Concerns” about the ALP Government

Question - What, if anything, "concerns" you about the way the Labor Government in Canberra is now running the country?

	Total	ALP	L-NP	Lib	NP#	Greens	Family First#	Others	Can't Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Economic Management "Concerns"
Economy (General)	8.5	7	11.5	11.5	7.5	7.5	13.5	7.5	3
Inflation	3.5	3	3.5	3.5	2.5	4	13	6.5	*
Interest rates	3	3.5	4	4	*	1	6.5	2	*
Total - Economic Management "Concerns"	10	9	12.5	12.5	7.5	8.5	19.5	7.5	3
Petrol "Concerns"
Fuel prices	6.5	8	4.5	5	2.5	5	26.5	5	5
Not enough to keep price down	2	3	0.5	0.5	*	4.5	*	4.5	*
Don't see point of "FuelWatch"	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	*	*	*	*	*
Total - Petrol "Concerns"	9	11	6	6	2.5	9.5	26.5	9	5
Leadership "Concerns"
Inaction / Too much "Talk" / Too many meetings / Committees	5	4	8.5	8.5	10.5	2	*	3	*
Lacks leadership attributes (i.e. Courage / Charisma / Strength, etc.)	1.5	0.5	3.5	3.5	5	1	*	*	*
Decision-making ability/ Indecisive	1.5	0.5	3	2.5	10.5	1	*	2	*
Doesn't provide a good alternative / Just agrees with everything	0.5	*	0.5	0.5	*	*	*	*	*
Wrong person leading the party	0.5	*	1	1	4.5	9	*	1.5	*
Total - Leadership "Concerns"	9	5	16	15.5	25.5	4	*	7	*
Lack of support for pensioners/ low income/ single parents	6.5	6.5	6.5	6	13	10.5	*	10.5	*
Honesty/ Broken promises/ Don’t trust him/ them	6	5	8	8	10	4.5	*	11	2.5
Approach to the environment/ Climate Change/ Global Warming etc	4.5	5	1.5	1	11.5	16	6.5	2	*
Too early to tell	3.5	5.5	2.5	2	5	2.5	6.5	1	4
Dislike of current or proposed policies/ Lack of policies	3.5	0.5	7	7	*	3	*	2	*
Experience (lack of)	3	0.5	7	7.5	*	1	*	2	5
Taxation issues	3	3.5	1	1	*	5	*	7	2.5
Trying to do too much	3	3	3.5	3.5	5	1	*	2	2.5
Health issues/ Hospitals (unspec)	2.5	2.5	4	3.5	8	3	6.5	2	*
Unions (controlled by)/ Union attachment/ Union people	2.5	0.5	5.5	5.5	5	2	6.5	2	*
Don’t like the Budget/ way they are spending/ allocating resources	2.5	1.5	4.5	4.5	5	2	*	*	*
(All other "Concerns" 2% or less)
Total mentioned a "Concern"	65	54.5	76	75.5	80	75	73.5	63.5	36
Nothing	27.5	38	18	18.5	10	20	20	21.5	40.5
Can't Say	7.5	7.5	6	6	10	5	6.5	15	23.5
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Note: Some Electors gave more than one "Concern"; * Less than 0.5%; # Sample size = n < 50.

Table 2 — “Concerns” about the Liberal-National Coalition

Question - What, if anything, "concerns" you about the way the Liberal National Coalition in Canberra is now handling it's job in Opposition?

	Total	ALP	L-NP	Lib	NP#	Greens	Family First#	Others	Can't Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Leadership "Concerns"
Lacks leadership attributes (i.e. Courage / Charisma / Strength, etc.)	8.5	8.5	10.5	11	7	3.5	*	7.5	4
Wrong person leading the party	5.5	4	7	6.5	10	3	7	11.5	*
Inaction / Too much "Talk" / Too many meetings / Committees	3	3	3	3	5	2.5	*	2	6.5
Doesn't provide a good alternative / Just agrees with everything	2	2	2	1.5	10	4	*	2	*
Decision-making ability/ Indecisive	1	0.5	1	1	*	*	14	3.5	*
Total - Leadership "Concerns"	17.5	15.5	21	21	27	11.5	21	24	10.5
Disunity/ Party instability/ Disarray/ Infighting/ Lack of party support	16.5	14	21	20.5	25.5	16.5	7	15.5	7.5
Negativity/ shifting blame/ stuck in the past/ muckracking	7	9	3.5	3.5	5	9.5	*	11.5	6.5
Wrong person leading the party	5.5	4	7	6.5	10	3	7	11.5	*
Dislike of current or proposed policies/ Lack of policies	5.5	5	5	5	5	8.5	20.5	6.5	*
Not doing a good job (unspecified)	4	3.5	4.5	4.5	5	2	*	11	*
Petrol "Concerns"
Fuel prices	1	1	2	1.5	10.5	*	*	*	*
Not enough to keep price down	0.5	*	0.5	0.5	5	1	*	*	*
Don't see point of "FuelWatch"	*	*	0.5	*	5	*	*	*	*
Total - Petrol "Concerns"	1.5	1	3	2	15.5	1	*	*	*
(All other "Concerns" 1% or less)
Total mentioned a "Concern"	55.5	56	58	58	58.5	56	41.5	59.5	27
Nothing	31.5	30.5	31.5	31	39	33.5	39	23	42
Can't Say	13	13.5	10.5	11	2.5	10.5	19.5	17.5	31
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Note: Some Electors gave more than one "Concern"; * Less than 0.5%; # Sample size = n < 50.

Table 3 — “Concerns” about Prime Minister Rudd

Question - What, if anything, "concerns" you about the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?

	Total	ALP	L-NP	Lib	NP#	Greens	Family First#	Others	Can't Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Leadership "Concerns"
Inaction / Too much "Talk" / Too many meetings / Committees	4.5	2.5	8	8	5	4	*	5.5	2.5
Lacks leadership attributes (i.e. Courage / Charisma / Strength, etc.)	2	0.5	4	4	*	1	7	1.5	2.5
Decision-making ability/ Indecisive	1.5	0.5	2	2	*	2	*	3.5	2.5
Doesn't provide a good alternative / Just agrees with everything	0.5	*	0.5	0.5	*	1	*	*	*
Total - Leadership "Concerns"	8	3.5	13	13.5	5	8	7	11	5
Trying to do too much	7	9	6.5	6	10	5	*	5.5	*
Honesty / Broken promises / Don't trust him	6	2	11	11	10	6.5	5.5	8.5	5
Too early to tell	3.5	3.5	3	3	5	4.5	*	3.5	8
Too controlling/ dictating/ Needs to listen more	2.5	2.5	3.5	3.5	*	3	7	2	*
Economic Management "Concerns"
Economy (General)	2	1	3	3.5	*	2.5	13.5	2.5	*
Inflation	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	*	1.5	*	*	*
Interest rates	0.5	*	1.5	1.5	*	*	6.5	1.5	*
Total - Economic Management "Concerns"	2.5	1	3.5	3.5	*	2.5	13.5	2.5	*
Petrol "Concerns"
Fuel prices	1	1	1	1	*	1.5	13.5	1.5	*
Not enough to keep price down	0.5	0.5	1.5	1	5	*	*	2	*
Don't see point of "FuelWatch"	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Total - Petrol "Concerns"	2	1.5	2	2	5	1.5	13.5	3.5	*
Disconnected/ Out of touch	2	1	2.5	2.5	*	4.5	13.5	*	*
Overworking his staff/ public service staff/ Expectations are too high	2	3	1.5	1.5	*	1	*	*	*
(All other "Concerns" 1.5% or less)
Total mentioned a "Concern"	46	34	61	61.5	55	46.5	52.5	49.5	25.5
Nothing	47	60	32.5	32.5	28	49	47.5	40	47.5
Can't Say	7	6	6.5	6	17	4.5	0	10.5	27
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Note: Some Electors gave more than one "Concern"; * Less than 0.5%; # Sample size = n < 50.

Table 4 — “Concerns” about Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson

Question - What, if anything, "concerns" you about the way Brendan Nelson is handling his job as Opposition Leader?

	Total	ALP	L-NP	Lib	NP#	Greens	Family First#	Others	Can't Say#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Leadership "Concerns"
Lacks leadership attributes (i.e. Courage / Charisma / Strength, etc.)	9	6.5	12	12	15	5.5	13	9.5	4
Decision-making ability/ Indecisive	3.5	3.5	3	3	*	4	*	7	*
Wrong person leading the party	3.5	4	4	3.5	10	2.5	*	4	*
Inaction / Too much "Talk" / Too many meetings / Committees	1.5	1	2	2	4.5	9.5	*	*	*
Doesn't provide a good alternative / Just agrees with everything	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	*	2	*	*	2.5
Total - Leadership "Concerns"	17	15	20.5	20.5	25	14	13	21.5	6
Disunity / Party instability / Infighting	8	9	7	7	10	5	7	12.5	1.5
Negativity / Shift blame / Muckraking	6	7.5	4	4	5	8	6.5	7.5	5
Dislike current or proposed policies	4	5	3	3	*	4	7	2	*
Not doing a good job (unspecified)	3	3.5	3.5	3.5	5	3	*	2	*
Experience (lack of)	2.5	1.5	3	2.5	5	8.5	*	2	6.5
Don't like him/ them (unspecified)	2.5	2	2.5	3	*	4.5	*	2.5	*
Never hear about him/ them/ Too quiet	2.5	1	5	5	2	*	*	2	*
Too early to tell	2	1	2.5	3	*	4	7	2	10
(All other "Concerns" 1.5% or less)
Total mentioned a "Concern"	51	50	54.5	54.5	52	49	41.5	53.5	30.5
Nothing	35.5	36.5	33	33.5	27	41.5	32.5	29	41.5
Can't Say	13.5	13.5	12.5	12	21	9.5	26	17.5	28
TOTAL	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Note: Some Electors gave more than one "Concern"; * Less than 0.5%; # Sample size = n < 50.

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Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

About Roy Morgan Research:

Roy Morgan Research is the largest independent Australian research company, with offices in each state of Australia, as well as in the United States, United Kingdom, New Zealand and Indonesia. A full service research organisation specialising in omnibus and syndicated data, Roy Morgan Research has more than 65 years experience in collecting objective, independent information on consumers. In Australia, Roy Morgan Research is considered to be the authoritative source of information on print media measurement, financial behaviour, voting intention and consumer confidence. Roy Morgan Research is a specialist in recontact customised surveys which provide invaluable and effective qualitative and quantitative information regarding customers and target markets.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors). The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).   The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election. Note: Regarding the 2004 Federal election, the recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading. The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.” The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member. No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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