ALP support up, although increasingly Australians believe we are ‘heading in the wrong direction’
| Finding No. 4304 -
Latest Roy Morgan Australian Federal Vote Result.:
June 27, 2008 |
In late June, ALP support is 52% (up 3.5%), L-NP support 34% (down 2%), support for the Greens 8% (down 0.5%), Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independent/Others 4.5% (down 0.5%). If a Federal election were held now, the ALP would win easily according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll.
On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 61% (up 2.5%), while support for the L-NP is 39% (down 2.5%).
However, the Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is 114, the lowest level since November 15-17, 2007 (pre-election) when the Howard L-NP Government scored 111. Only 48% (down 6%) of electors say “Australia is heading in the right direction” and 34% (up 7%) believe “Australia is heading in the wrong direction” — the highest “wrong direction” result since the ALP won Government on November 24, 2007. 18% (down 1%) can’t say if “Australia is headed in the right or the wrong direction!”
Australians are also less confident with the economy, measured by the June Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating of 90.7 - its lowest level since December 1991 — representing the increased number of Australians who say they and their family are financially worse than this time last year.
Gary Morgan says:
“In the 6 months since the Rudd ALP Government took office, Consumer Confidence and Government Confidence have both plummeted, yet ALP support is still strong.
“Roy Morgan Qualitative Research shows clearly that while the electorate is concerned about economic issues, it does not see the L-NP as a credible Opposition. If an election were held now, the ALP would be easily returned due to the weak Opposition.
“ Despite this, Mr. Rudd and his Cabinet colleagues must be concerned with the sharp drop in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating and the obvious effect the high interest rates and petrol prices are having on day-to-day Australians and small business — it is not good!”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of June 14/15 and 21/22, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,746 electors.
During the polling period:
- Prime Minister Kevin Rudd met with Japanese Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda. Rudd was criticised for his soft approach to Japan’s whaling, as well as not having visited Japan sooner.
- Federal Labor MP Belinda Neal and her husband (New South Wales Labor frontbencher John Della Bosca) were accused of being abusive and threatening to staff at a NSW nightclub. Conflicting statutory declarations were produced by both sides, and it was revealed that the apology written by the nightclub was drafted by John Della Bosca himself.
- It was the one year anniversary of the Federal Government intervention in the Northern Territory. Former Indigenous Minister Mal Brough revealed the intervention plans were created in just 48 hours, while Prime Minister Rudd announced that the Labor Government would remain committed the intervention.
- Prime Minister Rudd confirmed he would be attending the Beijing Olympics opening ceremony, receiving criticism from human rights groups, due to China’s human rights violations in Tibet.
- The Rudd Government was attacked for discontinuing the ‘Commercial Ready’ scheme, effectively ending an Australian company’s development if hybrid trucks, despite it’s decision to give Toyota $35 million to assist with manufacture of a hybrid Camry in Australia.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
|
|
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
|
|
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First# |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
† |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3, 1998^ |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
† |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
† |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.5) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face: Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32(2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5(3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17,18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34(3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5(2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998^ |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
| Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
| Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
MORGAN POLL |
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
34.5 |
65 |
35 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
64 |
36 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
64 |
36 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
** Phone Poll
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
| Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
| Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
| Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
| Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
| Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
| Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
| Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
| Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
| Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
| Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
| Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4. 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
55.5 |
49 |
49 |
48.5 |
47 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
49.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
32.5 |
33.5 |
31 |
30 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
33 |
34.5 |
37 |
32 |
32 |
34.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
117.5 |
116 |
118 |
120.5 |
125.5 |
115.5 |
114.5 |
115.5 |
112.5 |
111 |
120.5 |
120 |
115 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
19 |
15 |
17.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
16 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government |
| |
Oct
6/7 |
Oct
13/14 |
Oct
17/18 |
Oct
20/21 |
Oct
24/25 |
Oct
27/28 |
Nov
3/4 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
10/11 |
Nov
15-17 |
Nov
17/18 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
23 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
53 |
57.5 |
53 |
53.5 |
63.5 |
56 |
50 |
55.5 |
55.5 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
54 |
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
29 |
31.5 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
31 |
29 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
30 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
124.5 |
128.5 |
121.5 |
123.5 |
135.5 |
126 |
119.5 |
124.5 |
126.5 |
111 |
122.5 |
118 |
124 |
|
Can’t say |
18.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
8.5 |
14 |
19.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
15 |
17.5 |
14 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government |
| |
Dec
5/6 |
Dec 1/2
& 8/9 |
Jan 5/6
& 12/13 |
Jan
23/24 |
Jan 19/20
& 26/27 |
Jan
30/31 |
Feb 2/3
& 9/10 |
Feb 16/17
& 23/24 |
Mar 1/2
& 8/9 |
Mar
11/12 |
Mar 15/16
& 22/23 |
Mar 26/27
& Apr 2/3 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
64 |
64 |
61 |
59.5 |
62 |
62.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
51.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
|
Wrong direction |
15.5 |
16.5 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
18.5 |
22 |
20 |
29.5 |
27.5 |
26.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
144.5 |
147.5 |
147 |
142 |
139.5 |
142 |
144 |
139 |
142.5 |
122 |
126 |
127.5 |
|
Can’t say |
24.5 |
19.5 |
19 |
20 |
20.5 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
17.5 |
19 |
19 |
19.5 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government |
| |
Apr
5/6 |
Apr
9/10 |
Apr
12/13 |
Apr
16/17 |
Apr 19/20
& 26/27 |
May 3/4 |
May
7-11 |
May
17/18 |
May
24/25 |
May 31
& June 1 |
June 4-9 |
June 7/8 |
June 14/15 & 21/22 |
| |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
56.5 |
49.5 |
59 |
55 |
59 |
56.5 |
52 |
56 |
53 |
49.5 |
48 |
54 |
48 |
|
Wrong direction |
25 |
26 |
23 |
26.5 |
27.5 |
25.5 |
29 |
25 |
31.5 |
30 |
31 |
27 |
34 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
131.5 |
123.5 |
136 |
128.5 |
131.5 |
131 |
123 |
130 |
121.5 |
119.5 |
117 |
127 |
114 |
|
Can’t say |
18.5 |
24.5 |
18 |
18.5 |
13.5 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15.5 |
20.5 |
21 |
19 |
18 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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