New Zealand Labour Government Support remains weak as Election Nears
| Finding No. 4308 -
Latest Roy Morgan Poll on New Zealand voter intention.:
July 18, 2008 |
In mid July 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 52% (up 0.5%) clearly ahead of the Labour Party 31% (up 0.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.
Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 2.5% to its highest level since September 2006), Maori Party 1% (down 1.5%), United Future 1% (unchanged) and ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has fallen to a record low 87 (down 1) and the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating although up 3.7 points, is also at a near record low 85.7.
Gary Morgan says:
“The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows the Labour Government of Helen Clark (31%) failing to make any inroads into the lead of the National Party (52%).
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (85.7, up 3.7 points) remains near its record low with an equal record majority of New Zealanders (64%) saying they expect bad economic times over the next 12 months.
“These results present Helen Clark with a huge challenge to gain re-election. At the latest, the New Zealand Election must be held by early November and time is quickly running out for Clark to find away to connect with the electorate.”
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 871 electors from June 30 — July 13, 2008.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
41.3 |
20.9 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
7 |
6.7 |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
41.1 |
39.1 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
5.3 |
2.67 |
2.12 |
1.51 |
2.48 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 20 - October 2, 2005 |
36.5 |
41.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
October 4-16, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 18-31, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
9 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
November 15-27, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 28 - December 9, 2005 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
January 4-12, 2006 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 13—23, 2006 |
39 |
40.5 |
0 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 24 - February 5, 2006 |
38.5 |
39 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
9.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0 |
|
February 7-19, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 22 - March 6, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
March 7-19, 2006 |
42.5 |
41 |
0 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 20 - April 2, 2006 |
40 |
43 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 3-16, 2006 |
41.5 |
40 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 17-30, 2006 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
- |
|
May 1-14, 2006 |
39.5 |
41 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May 15-28, 2006 |
41 |
44 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
May 29 — June 11, 2006 |
40 |
44.5 |
- |
4.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
- |
|
June 12-25, 2006 |
37 |
45 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 3-16, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
- |
4.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 17 - 30, 2006 |
40 |
42 |
- |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 31 - August 13, 2006 |
39 |
41 |
- |
3.5 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 14-27, 2006 |
38.5 |
44 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 28 - September 10, 2006 |
41 |
38 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September 16 - October 1, 2006 |
36 |
41.5 |
- |
7 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2-15, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
^ |
5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
October 16-29, 2006 |
38.5 |
41 |
^ |
3 |
8 |
3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
|
October 30 — November 12, 2006 |
38.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 13 - 26, 2006 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 27 - December 12, 2006 |
37.5 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 3-21, 2007 |
41 |
41 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 23 - February 5, 2007 |
39.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 6-18, 2007 |
36 |
48.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
- |
|
February 19 - March 4, 2007 |
36 |
45 |
0.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
March 5-18, 2007 |
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
- |
|
March 19 - April 2, 2007 |
35.5 |
46 |
^ |
3.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
April 3-16, 2007 |
33.5 |
45.5 |
^ |
6 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 23 - May 6, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 7-20, 2007 |
32 |
49 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
May 21 - June 3, 2007 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
- |
3.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 4-17, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 18 - July 1, 2007 |
34 |
48.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 2-15, 2007 |
36 |
47 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 16-29, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
0.5 |
4 |
6 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
July 30 - August 12, 2007 |
31 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 20 - September 2, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 3-16, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 17-30, 2007 |
33 |
48.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 1-14, 2007 |
39 |
45.5 |
^ |
3 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
October 15-28, 2007 |
40.5 |
45 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
5.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November 12-25, 2007 |
35 |
48 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November 26-December 9, 2007 |
34.5 |
47.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
6 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1
|
|
January 3-20, 2008 |
33.5 |
52 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 21-February 3, 2008 |
36.5 |
45.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
February 4-17, 2008 |
32.5 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
8 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 18-March 2, 2008 |
35 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 3-16, 2008 |
34 |
51 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 24-April 6, 2008 |
34.5 |
47 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 7 - 20, 2008 |
35.5 |
50 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 21 - May 4, 2008 |
35.5 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
|
May 5-18, 2008 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May 19 - June 1, 2008 |
32 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 2 - 15, 2008 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
^ |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 16 - 29, 2008 |
30.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
8 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 30-July 13, 2008 |
31 |
52 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.
New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary
Auckland
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July 2006 |
38 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 2006 |
38.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 2006 |
41 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
October 2006 |
35 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
|
November 2006 |
33 |
47 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
December 2006 |
36 |
46 |
^ |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 2007 |
38 |
44 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
February 2007 |
34.5 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
March 2007 |
37.5 |
46 |
^ |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 2007 |
35.5 |
45 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
May 2007 |
35 |
48 |
^ |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
June 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
July 2007 |
32.5 |
52 |
^ |
2 |
5.5 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
August 2007 |
30 |
53 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 2007 |
32.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
2 |
6.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2007 |
35.5 |
51 |
^ |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
November 2007 |
36 |
50 |
^ |
5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
December 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 2008 |
34 |
52 |
^ |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
February 2008 |
36 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 2008 |
32.5 |
52 |
0.5 |
3 |
7.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 2008 |
32.5 |
51 |
^ |
3.5 |
8.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 2008 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
June 2008 |
32 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
July 2008 |
29.5 |
53.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
Wellington
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
47.5 |
36 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
September — October 2006 |
50 |
32.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
44.5 |
36.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
9 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2007 |
44 |
38 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
11.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
41.5 |
38.5 |
^ |
4 |
8.5 |
2 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
10.5 |
2 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
40.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September — October 2007 |
39.5 |
38 |
1 |
2.5 |
13.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2007 |
34 |
41 |
0.5 |
3 |
13 |
2 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2008 |
39.5 |
42 |
^ |
3.5 |
10 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2008 |
40 |
43.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2008 |
38 |
44.5 |
^ |
3 |
9 |
1 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
Christchurch
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
42 |
41 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
39 |
40 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
43.5 |
36.5 |
1 |
5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
38 |
40 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
2.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
March — April 2007 |
33.5 |
43.5 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
38 |
47.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
36 |
46 |
1.5 |
5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
^ |
2 |
|
September — October 2007 |
43 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
November — December 2007 |
39 |
47.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
January — February 2008 |
29 |
57 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
|
March — April 2008 |
39.5 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
8.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2008 |
38 |
49.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
Other North Island
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
6 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
34.5 |
42 |
^ |
8 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
35.5 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
37 |
45 |
^ |
5.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
32 |
49.5 |
^ |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
4 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
5.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
July — August 2007 |
32 |
50 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2007 |
32 |
49 |
^ |
4.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2007 |
35.5 |
46.5 |
^ |
6 |
5.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
January — February 2008 |
32 |
50 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
March — April 2008 |
31 |
51.5 |
^ |
6 |
5.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2008 |
31 |
51.5 |
^ |
5 |
6 |
0.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
|
