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In mid July, ALP support is 48% (down 0.5%) still well ahead of L-NP support 34.5% (down 0.5%). On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 60% (up 1%), while support for the L-NP is 40% (down 1%).

If the Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekend of July 12/13.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens (up 3.5% to 11.5%) is at a new record high after the release of the Garnaut Report, support for Family First is unchanged at 2.5% and Independent/Others 3.5% (down 2.5%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up 1 point to 112.5, as 47% (up 1.5%) of electors say Australia is “heading in the right direction” compared to 34.5% (up 0.5%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”

Gary Morgan says:

“Support for the Rudd Government remains strong. The Government has maintained a 13.5% lead over the Opposition as debate over how to regulate Australia’s carbon emissions picked up after the release of the Garnaut Report.

“The debate has caused an increase in support for the Greens to a record high 11.5% (up 3.5%), beating the previous record high for the Greens of 11% during March 2003 in the run-up to the Iraq War.

“The successful implementation of the carbon trading system is the Rudd Government’s biggest challenge and any mishandling of its implementation will see support for the Greens and Coalition increase at the Government’s expense.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of July 12/13, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 797 electors.

During the polling period:

• Debate over the Garnaut Report on mitigating Climate Change through a carbon-emissions trading system intensified as the Opposition stepped up its attacks on the Government over any rush to implementation of a carbon emissions trading scheme without doing the proper study and research of its impacts on the Australian economy.
• A new report by the CSIRO warned that the cost of petrol could rise to as high as $8 a litre in the next 10 years.
• The Federal Government confirmed it would donate $50m to the World Bank trust fund. This will be used to stimulate agricultural production in developing countries.
• Pope Benedict XVI announced he would use his visit to Australia to apologise for sexual abuse by Australian priests. He arrived in Australia on the last day of the period. Sydney prepared for 200,000 pilgrims about to arrive for World Youth Day.
• A leaked report revealed that Indonesia intended to acknowledge its support of militia violence in east Timor in 1999. This would be part of the Commission for Truth and Friendship aimed at mending relations between the two countries.
• A girl who posed nude as a six-year-old defended the use of the photograph on the front cover of an arts magazine. The picture reignited public debate about the use of children in art.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

.

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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