New Zealand National Party (48%) hold strong lead over Labour (34%)
| Finding No. 4314 -
Latest New Zealand Morgan Poll for mid August conducted with 834 New Zealand electors over the period of July 28 - August 10.:
August 15, 2008 |
In mid August 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 48% (up 0.5%) still well ahead of the Labour Party 34% (up 1.5%), if an election were held now the National Party would win.
Support for the Greens was 7.5% (down 0.5%), NZ First 6.5% (up 1.5%), Maori Party 2% (down 1%), ACT NZ 1.5% (down 1%) and Others 0.5% (down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen for the second New Zealand Morgan Poll in a row, rising strongly to 103.5 (up 12pts). It is now at its highest level since being at 104.5 in early May. Now more New Zealanders 44.5% (up 6%) say the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 41% (down 6%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”
There has been a similar rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating which has also strengthened, up 7.1 points to 94.9, and up 12.9 points since early July.
Gary Morgan says:
“Support for Helen Clark’s Government remains weak, although the National Party has lost the momentum it has held for much of the year.
“Revelations of a ‘secret agenda’ revealed by bugging at the recent National Party Conference have led voters to re-evaluate what the National Party is actually offering New Zealanders.
“If the vote continues to tighten New Zealanders can look forward to a Coalition Government perhaps comprising the Greens or New Zealand First.”
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 836 electors from July 28 - August 10, 2008.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
41.3 |
20.9 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
7 |
6.7 |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
41.1 |
39.1 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
5.3 |
2.67 |
2.12 |
1.51 |
2.48 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 20 - October 2, 2005 |
36.5 |
41.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
October 4-16, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 18-31, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
9 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
November 15-27, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 28 - December 9, 2005 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
January 4-12, 2006 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 13—23, 2006 |
39 |
40.5 |
0 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 24 - February 5, 2006 |
38.5 |
39 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
9.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0 |
|
February 7-19, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 22 - March 6, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
March 7-19, 2006 |
42.5 |
41 |
0 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 20 - April 2, 2006 |
40 |
43 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 3-16, 2006 |
41.5 |
40 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 17-30, 2006 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
- |
|
May 1-14, 2006 |
39.5 |
41 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May 15-28, 2006 |
41 |
44 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
May 29 — June 11, 2006 |
40 |
44.5 |
- |
4.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
- |
|
June 12-25, 2006 |
37 |
45 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 3-16, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
- |
4.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 17 - 30, 2006 |
40 |
42 |
- |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 31 - August 13, 2006 |
39 |
41 |
- |
3.5 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 14-27, 2006 |
38.5 |
44 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 28 - September 10, 2006 |
41 |
38 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September 16 - October 1, 2006 |
36 |
41.5 |
- |
7 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2-15, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
^ |
5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
October 16-29, 2006 |
38.5 |
41 |
^ |
3 |
8 |
3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
|
October 30 — November 12, 2006 |
38.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 13 - 26, 2006 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 27 - December 12, 2006 |
37.5 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 3-21, 2007 |
41 |
41 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 23 - February 5, 2007 |
39.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 6-18, 2007 |
36 |
48.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
- |
|
February 19 - March 4, 2007 |
36 |
45 |
0.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
March 5-18, 2007 |
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
- |
|
March 19 - April 2, 2007 |
35.5 |
46 |
^ |
3.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
April 3-16, 2007 |
33.5 |
45.5 |
^ |
6 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 23 - May 6, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 7-20, 2007 |
32 |
49 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
May 21 - June 3, 2007 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
- |
3.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 4-17, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 18 - July 1, 2007 |
34 |
48.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 2-15, 2007 |
36 |
47 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 16-29, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
0.5 |
4 |
6 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
July 30 - August 12, 2007 |
31 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 20 - September 2, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 3-16, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 17-30, 2007 |
33 |
48.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 1-14, 2007 |
39 |
45.5 |
^ |
3 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
October 15-28, 2007 |
40.5 |
45 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
5.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November 12-25, 2007 |
35 |
48 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November 26-December 9, 2007 |
34.5 |
47.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
6 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
January 3-20, 2008 |
33.5 |
52 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 21-February 3, 2008 |
36.5 |
45.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
February 4-17, 2008 |
32.5 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
8 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 18-March 2, 2008 |
35 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 3-16, 2008 |
34 |
51 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 24-April 6, 2008 |
34.5 |
47 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 7 - 20, 2008 |
35.5 |
50 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 21 - May 4, 2008 |
35.5 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
|
May 5-18, 2008 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May 19 - June 1, 2008 |
32 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 2-15, 2008 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
^ |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 16-29, 2008 |
30.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
8 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 30-July 13, 2008 |
31 |
52 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
|
July 14-27, 2008 |
32.5 |
47.5 |
^ |
5 |
8 |
0.5 |
3 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
July 28-August 10, 2008 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
6.5 |
7.5 |
^ |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.
New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary
Auckland
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July 2006 |
38 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 2006 |
38.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 2006 |
41 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
October 2006 |
35 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
|
November 2006 |
33 |
47 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
December 2006 |
36 |
46 |
^ |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 2007 |
38 |
44 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
February 2007 |
34.5 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
March 2007 |
37.5 |
46 |
^ |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 2007 |
35.5 |
45 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
May 2007 |
35 |
48 |
^ |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
June 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
July 2007 |
32.5 |
52 |
^ |
2 |
5.5 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
August 2007 |
30 |
53 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 2007 |
32.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
2 |
6.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2007 |
35.5 |
51 |
^ |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
November 2007 |
36 |
50 |
^ |
5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
December 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 2008 |
34 |
52 |
^ |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
February 2008 |
36 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 2008 |
32.5 |
52 |
0.5 |
3 |
7.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 2008 |
32.5 |
51 |
^ |
3.5 |
8.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 2008 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
June 2008 |
32 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
July 2008 |
29.5 |
53.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
Wellington
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
47.5 |
36 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
September — October 2006 |
50 |
32.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
44.5 |
36.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
9 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2007 |
44 |
38 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
11.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
41.5 |
38.5 |
^ |
4 |
8.5 |
2 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
10.5 |
2 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
40.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September — October 2007 |
39.5 |
38 |
1 |
2.5 |
13.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2007 |
34 |
41 |
0.5 |
3 |
13 |
2 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2008 |
39.5 |
42 |
^ |
3.5 |
10 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2008 |
40 |
43.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2008 |
38 |
44.5 |
^ |
3 |
9 |
1 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
Christchurch
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
42 |
41 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
39 |
40 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
43.5 |
36.5 |
1 |
5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
38 |
40 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
2.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
March — April 2007 |
33.5 |
43.5 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
38 |
47.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
36 |
46 |
1.5 |
5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
^ |
2 |
|
September — October 2007 |
43 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
November — December 2007 |
39 |
47.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
January — February 2008 |
29 |
57 |
1 |
3 |
8 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
|
March — April 2008 |
39.5 |
44 |
1 |
2 |
8.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2008 |
38 |
49.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
Other North Island
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
6 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
34.5 |
42 |
^ |
8 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
35.5 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
37 |
45 |
^ |
5.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
32 |
49.5 |
^ |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
4 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
5.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
July — August 2007 |
32 |
50 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2007 |
32 |
49 |
^ |
4.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2007 |
35.5 |
46.5 |
^ |
6 |
5.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
January — February 2008 |
32 |
50 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
March — April 2008 |
31 |
51.5 |
^ |
6 |
5.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2008 |
31 |
51.5 |
|
