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In mid August, ALP support is 47% (up 1.5%) well ahead of L-NP support 37.5% (down 2%). On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP is 57% (up 2%), while support for the L-NP is 43% (down 2%).

If the Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekends of August 9/10 & 16/17.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8.5% (up 0.5%), support for Family First 2% (up 0.5%) and Independents/Others 5% (down 1%).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has leapt 11 points to 123 points — the highest Government Confidence Rating since early June (127 points). Australia is “heading in the right direction” according to 52% (up 4.5% and 8.5% in a month) of Australians, compared to 29% (down 6.5%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”

Gary Morgan says:

“Kevin Rudd has enjoyed a bounce in support as the Beijing Olympics begin with ALP support up to 57% on a Two-Party Preferred basis, well ahead of the L-NP (43%).

“Strong hints from the Reserve Bank that it is about to start cutting interest rates are a relief to working Australians struggling with higher food and energy prices.

“The strong rise in the Government Confidence Rating, to a two-month high of 123 points, is a positive for the Government as leadership tensions continue to distract the Opposition from keeping the Government accountable.”

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,799 electors.

During the polling period:

• The Beijing Olympics opened at 8.08pm on 08/08/08 as world leaders gathered in Beijing to enjoy the spectacle. Prime Minister Kevin Rudd was joined by US President George Bush, Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and many other Heads of State for the Opening Ceremony.
• In conjunction with the Olympics Opening Ceremony, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili sent the Georgian armed forces into the breakaway enclave of South Ossetia in an apparent attempt to recapture the autonomous province. The move backfired as the Russian army marched in and quickly retook South Ossetia, and also another breakaway region, Abkhazia.
• Western Australian Opposition Leader Troy Buswell announced his resignation from the leadership of the Liberal Party after a series of scandals. He was replaced by former leader Colin Barnett, who led the party to electoral defeat in 2005. ALP Premier Alan Carpenter immediately announced a snap election for Western Australians set for September 5.
• The Reserve Bank decided to keep interest rates steady at their 12 year high of 7.25%, despite renewed concerns about a slowing economy. Economists are tipping a certain cut at the next meeting of the RBA Board in September.
• The NT Election was held with the governing ALP retaining power despite a strong swing against new leader Paul Henderson. The ALP won 13 of the 25 seats, with the CLP winning 11 and Independent Gerry Wood retaining his seat.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

			The	Family	Ind./
	ALP	L-NP	Greens	First#	Others
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS	%	%	%	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	38.8	47.3 (8.6)	1.7	†	12.2
Election October 3, 1998^	40.1	39.5 (5.3)	2.1	†	18.3
Election November 10, 2001	37.8	43 (5.6)	4.4	†	13.8
Election October 9, 2004	37.6	46.4 (5.9)	7.2	2.0	6.8
Election November 24, 2007	43.4	42.1 (5.5)	7.8	2.0	4.7
MORGAN POLL
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)	49	36.5 (3.5)	7	1.5	6
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face: Face)	49.5	34 (2.5)	10.5	2.5	3.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	51.5	33 (2.5)	8	2	5.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)	53	32(2)	10	1	4
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face)	49	36 (3)	8.5	1.5	5
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)	50	34.5 (3)	8	1	6.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)	54	33 (3)	7.5	1.5	4
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)	56.5	31.5(3)	6.5	1.5	4
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)	55.5	30.5 (2.5)	9	1.5	3.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)	53.5	34 (2.5)	5.5	1.5	5.5
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)	55	31 (2)	7	3	4
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)	51	34 (2)	7.5	2	5.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	53.5	33.5 (2)	7.5	1.5	4
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)	54	32 (3)	8.5	1	4.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	54	33.5 (4.5)	6.5	1	5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)	55	33 (2.5)	6	1	5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	54.5	33.5 (3.5)	5.5	2.5	4
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)	52.5	32.5 (2)	8	2	5
May 7-11, 2008(Phone)	47	37 (2.5)	9	1	6
May 17,18, 2008 (Face : Face)	51.5	35 (2.5)	8	1	4
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)	53	34(3)	5.5	2.5	5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)	52.5	31.5 (2.5)	9	2	5
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)	45.5	38.5(2)	8.5	1.5	6
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)	48.5	36 (3)	8.5	2	5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)	52	34 (2)	8	1.5	4.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	48.5	35 (2.5)	8	2.5	6
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	48	34.5 (2.5)	11.5	2.5	3.5
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)	45.5	39.5 (2)	7.5	2	5.5
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)	45.5	39.5 (2.5)	8	1.5	6
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)	47	37.5 (4)	8.5	2	5

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

	ALP	L-NP
	%	%
Election March 2, 1996	46.4	53.6
Election October 3, 1998^	51	49
Election November 10, 2001	49	51
Election October 9, 2004	47.3	52.7
Election November 24, 2007	52.7	47.3
	Preferences distributed by how electors say they will vote		Preferences distributed by how electors voted at the 2007 election
	%	%	%	%
MORGAN POLL	ALP	L-NP	ALP	L-NP
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)	58.5	41.5	58.5	41.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)	61.5	38.5	60.5	39.5
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	62	38	61.5	38.5
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)	63	37	63	37
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	60	40	59	41
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)	60	40	60	40
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)	63	37	62.5	37.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)	64.5	35.5	64.5	35.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)	65.5	34.5	65	35
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)	62	38	61	39
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)	63.5	36.5	63.5	36.5
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)	61.5	38.5	60.5	39.5
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	61.5	38.5	62	38
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)	64.5	35.5	63.5	36.5
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	62.5	37.5	62	38
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)	64	36	62.5	37.5
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	62.5	37.5	61.5	38.5
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face)	64	36	62	38
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone)	58	42	58	42
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)	61	39	60.5	39.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)	62	38	61	39
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)	63.5	36.5	63	37
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)	56	44	56	44
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)	59	41	58.5	41.5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)	61.5	38.5	61	39
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	59	41	59	41
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	59.5	40.5	60	40
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)	55	45	55	45
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)	54.5	45.5	55	45
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)	57.5	42.5	57	43

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

Think Will Win	ALP	L-NP	Can't Say
	%	%	%
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone)	58	14.5	27.5
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face)	61	17	22
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	65	15	20
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone)	65	10.5	24.5
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	64	16	20
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone)	65.5	9	25.5
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face)	65.5	17	17.5
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face)	69.5	15	15.5
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face)	70.5	14	15.5
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone)	71	13	16
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face)	70.5	14.5	15
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone)	71.5	12.5	16
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	71.5	15	13.5
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone)	71.5	10	15
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	72	15.5	12.5
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone)	73	12	15
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face)	72.5	15.5	12
May 3/4. 2008 (Face : Face)	72.5	14	13.5
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone)	70.5	11.5	18
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face)	69.5	17	13.5
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face)	68	15.5	16.5
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face)	63.5	20.5	16
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone)	65.5	21	13.5
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face)	61.5	20	18.5
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face)	64.5	21	14.5
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face)	61.5	23.5	15
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face)	66	22	12
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face)	61	24	15
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face)	59.5	24.5	16
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face)	62	23	15

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	May 26/27	June 2/3	June 9/10 & 16/17	June 23/24 & June 30/July 1	July 7/8 & 14/15	July 21/22 & 28/29	Aug 4/5 & 11/12	Aug 18/19 & 25/26	Sep 1/2	Sep 8/9	Sep 15/16	Sep 22/23	Sep 29/30
	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	50.5	48.5	51.5	51.5	55.5	49	49	48.5	47	48	52.5	52	49.5
Wrong direction	33	32.5	33.5	31	30	33.5	34.5	33	34.5	37	32	32	34.5
Roy Morgan GCR*	117.5	116	118	120.5	125.5	115.5	114.5	115.5	112.5	111	120.5	120	115
Can’t say	16.5	19	15	17.5	14.5	17.5	16.5	18.5	18.5	15	15.5	16	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government
	Oct 6/7	Oct 13/14	Oct 17/18	Oct 20/21	Oct 24/25	Oct 27/28	Nov 3/4	Nov 7/8	Nov 10/11	Nov 15-17	Nov 17/18	Nov 21/22	Nov 23
	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Phone
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	53	57.5	53	53.5	63.5	56	50	55.5	55.5	48	52.5	52	54
Wrong direction	28.5	29	31.5	30	28	30	30.5	31	29	37	30	34	30
Roy Morgan GCR*	124.5	128.5	121.5	123.5	135.5	126	119.5	124.5	126.5	111	122.5	118	124
Can’t say	18.5	13.5	15.5	16.5	8.5	14	19.5	13.5	15.5	15	17.5	14	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government
	Dec 5/6	Dec 1/2 & 8/9	Jan 5/6 & 12/13	Jan 23/24	Jan 19/20 & 26/27	Jan 30/31	Feb 2/3 & 9/10	Feb 16/17 & 23/24	Mar 1/2 & 8/9	Mar 11/12	Mar 15/16 & 22/23	Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3	Apr 5/6
	Phone	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Phone	Face
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	60	64	64	61	59.5	62	62.5	61	62.5	51.5	53.5	54	56.5
Wrong direction	15.5	16.5	17	19	20	20	18.5	22	20	29.5	27.5	26.5	25
Roy Morgan GCR*	144.5	147.5	147	142	139.5	142	144	139	142.5	122	126	127.5	131.5
Can’t say	24.5	19.5	19	20	20.5	18	19	17	17.5	19	19	19.5	18.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Interviewing Dates — ALP Government
	Apr 9/10	Apr 12/13	Apr 16/17	Apr 19/20 & 26/27	May 3/4	May 7-11	May 17/18	May 24/25	May 31 & June 1	June 4-9	June 7/8	June 14/15 & 21/22	June 28/29 & July 5/6	July 12/13	July 19/20	July 26/27 & Aug 2/3	Aug 9/10 & 16/17
	Phone	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Phone	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face	Face
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	49.5	59	55	59	56.5	52	56	53	49.5	48	54	48	45.5	47	43.5	47.5	52
Wrong direction	26	23	26.5	27.5	25.5	29	25	31.5	30	31	27	34	34	34.5	36.5	35.5	29
Roy Morgan GCR*	123.5	136	128.5	131.5	131	123	130	121.5	119.5	117	127	114	111.5	112.5	107	112	123
Can’t say	24.5	18	18.5	13.5	18	19	18	15.5	20.5	21	19	18	20.5	18.5	20	17	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1
2,000	±2.2	±1.9	±1.3	±1

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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