New Zealand Labour (38%) closes the gap on National Party (44.5%) as election looms.
| Finding No. 4316 -
This is the latest result from the Roy Morgan New Zealand Poll conducted with 841 electors over the period August 18 - 31, 2008.:
September 04, 2008 |
In early September 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 44.5% (down 3.5%) only 6.5% ahead of the Labour Party 38% (up 4%) — the closest the two major parties have been for nearly a year, since October 2007 when the National Party led 45% cf. 40.5%. If an election were held now New Zealand would have a Coalition Government likely to be led by the National Party.
Support for the NZ First Party of Winston Peters has dropped significantly in the wake of the party funding scandal with NZ First down 4% to 2.5% — the lowest result for NZ First since September 2007.
Support for the Greens was 8% (up 0.5%), Maori Party 3.5% (up 1.5%), ACT NZ 1.5% (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 1%) and Others 1% (up 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has risen strongly for the third New Zealand Morgan Poll in a row, rising 11.5pts to 115. It is now at its highest level since being at 118.5 in late February. For the first time since February, a majority of New Zealanders 50.5% (up 6%) say the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 35.5% (down 5.5%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”
There has been a similar strong rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating which has leapt 12.4 points to 107.3 and is up 25.3 points since early July.
Gary Morgan says:
“Helen Clark’s Labour Government has closed the gap on the National Party as Election Day draws nearer. Since trailing by 21%, 30.5% cf. 51.5% in late June, Clark has closed the gap to only 6.5%.
“The first cut in interest rates in five years in July, down 0.25% to 8.00%, has driven the strong increase in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating — and given renewed strength to the electability of Labour with the prospect of further rate cuts to come.
“A personal tragedy on a camping trip taken by Helen Clark and some of her closest friends has also given voters a chance to see that Clark is not just the ‘consummate politician’ she is often portrayed as. Her efforts to revive a dying friend have given New Zealanders a renewed perspective and respect for the tough Prime Minister they’ve known for nearly a decade.
“The lack of a clear policy direction from the opposition National Party has given Helen Clark and Labour renewed hope of winning an unlikely election victory as the National Party has yet to make the case for why it deserves to form the next New Zealand Government.
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 841 electors from August 18 — 31, 2008.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
41.3 |
20.9 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
7 |
6.7 |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
41.1 |
39.1 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
5.3 |
2.67 |
2.12 |
1.51 |
2.48 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 20 - October 2, 2005 |
36.5 |
41.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
October 4-16, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 18-31, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
9 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
November 15-27, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 28 - December 9, 2005 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
January 4-12, 2006 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 13—23, 2006 |
39 |
40.5 |
0 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 24 - February 5, 2006 |
38.5 |
39 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
9.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0 |
|
February 7-19, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 22 - March 6, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
March 7-19, 2006 |
42.5 |
41 |
0 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 20 - April 2, 2006 |
40 |
43 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 3-16, 2006 |
41.5 |
40 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 17-30, 2006 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
- |
|
May 1-14, 2006 |
39.5 |
41 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May 15-28, 2006 |
41 |
44 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
May 29 — June 11, 2006 |
40 |
44.5 |
- |
4.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
- |
|
June 12-25, 2006 |
37 |
45 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 3-16, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
- |
4.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 17 - 30, 2006 |
40 |
42 |
- |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 31 - August 13, 2006 |
39 |
41 |
- |
3.5 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 14-27, 2006 |
38.5 |
44 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 28 - September 10, 2006 |
41 |
38 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September 16 - October 1, 2006 |
36 |
41.5 |
- |
7 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2-15, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
^ |
5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
October 16-29, 2006 |
38.5 |
41 |
^ |
3 |
8 |
3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
|
October 30 — November 12, 2006 |
38.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 13 - 26, 2006 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 27 - December 12, 2006 |
37.5 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 3-21, 2007 |
41 |
41 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 23 - February 5, 2007 |
39.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 6-18, 2007 |
36 |
48.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
- |
|
February 19 - March 4, 2007 |
36 |
45 |
0.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
March 5-18, 2007 |
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
- |
|
March 19 - April 2, 2007 |
35.5 |
46 |
^ |
3.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
April 3-16, 2007 |
33.5 |
45.5 |
^ |
6 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 23 - May 6, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 7-20, 2007 |
32 |
49 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
May 21 - June 3, 2007 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
- |
3.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 4-17, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 18 - July 1, 2007 |
34 |
48.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 2-15, 2007 |
36 |
47 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 16-29, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
0.5 |
4 |
6 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
July 30 - August 12, 2007 |
31 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 20 - September 2, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 3-16, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 17-30, 2007 |
33 |
48.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 1-14, 2007 |
39 |
45.5 |
^ |
3 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
October 15-28, 2007 |
40.5 |
45 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
5.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November 12-25, 2007 |
35 |
48 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November 26-December 9, 2007 |
34.5 |
47.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
6 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1
|
|
January 3-20, 2008 |
33.5 |
52 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 21-February 3, 2008 |
36.5 |
45.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
February 4-17, 2008 |
32.5 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
8 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 18-March 2, 2008 |
35 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 3-16, 2008 |
34 |
51 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 24-April 6, 2008 |
34.5 |
47 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 7 - 20, 2008 |
35.5 |
50 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 21 - May 4, 2008 |
35.5 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
|
May 5-18, 2008 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May 19 - June 1, 2008 |
32 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 2-15, 2008 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
^ |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 16-29, 2008 |
30.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
8 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 30-July 13, 2008 |
31 |
52 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
|
July 14-27, 2008 |
32.5 |
47.5 |
^ |
5 |
8 |
0.5 |
3 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
July 28-August 10, 2008 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
6.5 |
7.5 |
^ |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 18-31, 2008 |
38 |
44.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.
New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary
Auckland
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July 2006 |
38 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 2006 |
38.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 2006 |
41 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
October 2006 |
35 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
|
November 2006 |
33 |
47 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
December 2006 |
36 |
46 |
^ |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 2007 |
38 |
44 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
February 2007 |
34.5 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
March 2007 |
37.5 |
46 |
^ |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 2007 |
35.5 |
45 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
May 2007 |
35 |
48 |
^ |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
June 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
July 2007 |
32.5 |
52 |
^ |
2 |
5.5 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
August 2007 |
30 |
53 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 2007 |
32.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
2 |
6.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2007 |
35.5 |
51 |
^ |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
November 2007 |
36 |
50 |
^ |
5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
December 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 2008 |
38 |
46.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
2 |
^ |
|
February 2008 |
34 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
8 |
^ |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
March 2008 |
29 |
53 |
^ |
3 |
9 |
1 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
April 2008 |
34 |
51.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
^ |
|
May 2008 |
31 |
53.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
June 2008 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
|
July 2008 |
31 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
August 2008 |
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
6 |
6 |
^ |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
Wellington
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
47.5 |
36 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
September — October 2006 |
50 |
32.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
44.5 |
36.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
9 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2007 |
44 |
38 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
11.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
41.5 |
38.5 |
^ |
4 |
8.5 |
2 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
10.5 |
2 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
40.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September — October 2007 |
39.5 |
38 |
1 |
2.5 |
13.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2007 |
34 |
41 |
0.5 |
3 |
13 |
2 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2008 |
38.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
10.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2008 |
41 |
42.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
|
May — June 2008 |
38.5 |
43 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
|
July — August 2008 |
36.5 |
43 |
^ |
4.5 |
11 |
0.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
Christchurch
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
42 |
41 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
39 |
40 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
43.5 |
36.5 |
1 |
5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
38 |
40 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
2.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
March — April 2007 |
33.5 |
43.5 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
38 |
47.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
36 |
46 |
1.5 |
5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
^ |
2 |
|
September — October 2007 |
43 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
November — December 2007 |
39 |
47.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
January — February 2008 |
31.5 |
55 |
1 |
3 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2008 |
38.5 |
44 |
1 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2008 |
34.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
7 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
1 |
|
July — August 2008 |
38.5 |
46 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
1 |
Other North Island
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Alliance |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
6 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
34.5 |
42 |
^ |
8 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
35.5 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
37 |
45 |
^ |
5.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
32 |
49.5 |
^ |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
4 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
5.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
July — August 2007 |
32 |
50 |
0.5 |
| |
