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A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (September 10/11, 2008) finds:

Although Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has a substantial lead over Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson 65% cf. 18%, over the last six months since the last special Preferred Leader Morgan Poll in February Rudd’s lead has dropped by 21%. For the “poll academics” the latest two-party preferred results show the ALP: 55% lead the L-NP: 45%.

Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as Australia’s Prime Minister: 65% (down 12% since February 21/22, 2008) of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Dr Nelson (18%, up 9%) while 17% (up 3%) can’t say or chose someone else;

Most preferred Opposition leader is Peter Costello (31%, up 13% since February 21/22, 2008) ahead of Malcolm Turnbull (20%, down 4%), Joe Hockey 11% (down 2%) and current Opposition Leader Dr Brendan Nelson (10%, up 1%). Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (8%, up 1%), Tony Abbott (7%, up 1%) and Andrew Robb 1% (unchanged) are well behind.

Amongst L-NP supporters the resigning Peter Costello (45%) is clearly the preferred leader well ahead of Mr Turnbull (20%) and even further ahead of Dr Nelson (10%), Mr Hockey (9%), Mr Abbott (6%) and Ms Bishop (5%).

Although Rudd’s support has dropped, he is still clearly the preferred leader of the ALP. Now 49% (down 17%) of electors (and 60% of ALP supporters) would prefer Kevin Rudd to lead the Labor Party to the next Federal election while 21% (up 6%) would prefer Julia Gillard. Stephen Smith is preferred by 4% (up 2%), while Wayne Swan, Bill Shorten, Lindsay Tanner and Jenny Macklin are all preferred by 3% of electors. (14%, up 4%, can’t say or chose someone else).

If Prime Minister Rudd were to resign for any reason, Deputy PM Julia Gillard has the clear support of electors (44%, down 6%). Gillard’s support among ALP voters (57%) is even stronger. Wayne Swan (12%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, ahead of Mr Smith (8%), Mr Tanner (6%), Mr Shorten and Ms Macklin (both 5%).

If Dr Nelson were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Costello (33%, up 14%) is clearly preferred by electors as the Liberal to replace him, ahead of Mr Turnbull (22%, down 4%), Mr Hockey (12%, down 2%), Ms Bishop (10%, up 2%), Mr Abbott (8%, up 1%) and Mr Robb (2%, unchanged).

If Peter Costello follows through with his stated aim of leaving Parliament, Malcolm Turnbull (28%) is clearly the preferred new leader of the Opposition ahead of Joe Hockey (16%), current Opposition Leader Dr Brendan Nelson (15%), current Deputy Opposition Leader Julie Bishop (12%), Tony Abbott (12%) and Andrew Robb (2%).

Gary Morgan says:

“The leadership speculation surrounding the Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson is undermining his leadership. Peter Costello has finally confirmed he is not seeking Dr Nelson’s job and it is time the Liberal Party ‘bit the bullet’ and made a change to a new leader before their credibility as an alternative Government is completely undermined.

“This special Morgan Poll shows that with Dr Nelson and Mr Costello out of the running, Malcolm Turnbull, Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop and Tony Abbott are the four candidates that the Liberal Party must choose between to find a new Liberal leader.”

Read my Paper:

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia? A Woman and it will be sooner than you think!

By Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research

Wednesday September 10, 2008

&

The reply of the Former Federal Liberal Party Member for Corangamite, Stewart McArthur

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of September 10/11, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 544 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:    Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Nelson

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr Rudd and Dr Nelson.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr Rudd or Dr Nelson?”

	Electors 18+				Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	65	87	39	90	65	52
Nelson	44*	38*	9	18	6	35	4	23	13
Other / Can’t say	5	10	14	17	7	26	6	12	35
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

	Electors 18+				Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	65	66	64	76	69	66	60
Nelson	44*	38*	9	18	15	20	12	16	15	22
Other / Can’t say	5	10	14	17	19	16	12	15	19	18
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

Preferred Labor Leader

Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	49	60	42	47	45	36
Gillard	15	21	24	15	30	12	21
Smith	2	4	1	7	5	12	2
Swan	2	3	1	5	3	10	7
Shorten	2	3	2	3	2	*	10
Tanner	2	3	2	4	5	*	*
Macklin	1	3	1	4	6	*	*
Someone else	1	2	1	3	*	*	10
Can’t say	9	12	8	17	2	21	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	49	51	47	57	56	40	49
Gillard	15	21	18	23	27	14	26	18
Smith	2	4	5	3	2	1	5	5
Swan	2	3	4	2	2	6	3	3
Shorten	2	3	3	4	*	3	4	3
Tanner	2	3	2	3	1	2	2	4
Macklin	1	3	2	4	4	3	4	2
Someone else	1	1	2	1	*	2	1	3
Can’t say	9	13	13	13	7	13	15	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd

Respondents who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP Leader were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Julia Gillard,Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin, Lindsay Tanner?”

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	44	57	28	62	35	35
Swan	8	12	9	14	8	21	15
Smith	5	8	4	12	7	23	10
Tanner	6	6	6	6	6	*	4
Shorten	5	5	6	4	6	*	10
Macklin	5	5	3	6	6	*	3
Someone else	1	2	1	4	*	*	10
Can’t say	20	18	14	26	5	21	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	44	40	47	56	41	47	39
Swan	8	12	15	8	14	13	11	11
Smith	5	8	10	7	8	6	8	10
Tanner	6	6	6	5	3	6	3	8
Shorten	5	5	5	5	*	4	6	6
Macklin	5	5	3	6	4	4	5	4
Someone else	1	2	3	2	*	3	2	3
Can’t say	20	18	18	20	15	23	18	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Preferred Coalition Leader

Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	18	31	22	45	23	42	40
Turnbull	24	20	20	20	38	*	7
Nelson	9	10	13	10	11	*	3
Hockey	13	11	13	9	5	46	11
Bishop	7	8	11	5	5	*	13
Abbott	6	7	5	6	9	*	22
Robb	1	1	2	*	*	*	*
Someone else	2	1	2	1	*	*	4
Cant’ say	11	11	12	4	9	12	*
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	18	31	37	26	34	31	32	31
Turnbull	24	20	23	17	9	17	22	22
Nelson	9	10	8	13	8	8	10	12
Hockey	13	11	9	13	16	16	10	9
Bishop	7	8	6	9	6	3	9	9
Abbott	6	7	6	7	10	12	5	5
Robb	1	1	1	1	*	1	1	1
Someone else	2	1	2	*	*	1	2	1
Cant’ say	11	11	8	14	17	11	9	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Brendan Nelson

Respondents who preferred Brendan Nelson were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Peter Costello, Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Brendan Nelson.

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	19	33	23	48	24	42	40
Turnbull	26	22	23	22	40	*	7
Hockey	14	12	15	10	7	46	11
Bishop	8	10	15	6	5	*	16
Abbott	7	8	5	9	11	*	22
Robb	2	2	3	1	*	*	*
Someone else	1	1	2	1	2	*	4
Cant’ say	12	12	14	3	11	12	*
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+		Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	19	33	38	28	34	33	33	32
Turnbull	26	22	24	20	9	17	25	25
Hockey	14	12	12	13	16	16	10	11
Bishop	8	10	8	12	6	4	13	12
Abbott	7	8	7	9	12	12	6	6
Robb	2	2	1	2	*	2	1	2
Someone else	1	1	2	1	*	1	2	2
Cant’ say	12	12	8	15	23	15	10	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Peter Costello

Respondents who preferred Peter Costello were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Peter Costello.

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep 10/11, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Nelson	15	16	17	11	11	3
Turnbull	28	22	35	40	12	21
Hockey	16	16	16	9	46	18
Bishop	12	15	12	8	*	16
Abbott	12	9	13	15	10	28
Robb	2	3	*	3	*	*
Someone else	1	2	1	*	*	5
Cant’ say	14	17	6	14	21	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Sep 10/11, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Nelson	15	12	17	16	13	13	16
Turnbull	28	34	22	12	23	30	32
Hockey	16	15	17	16	26	16	12
Bishop	12	10	15	13	4	15	14
Abbott	12	13	11	24	16	8	10
Robb	2	2	2	2	1	1	2
Someone else	1	2	*	*	1	2	2
Cant’ say	14	12	16	17	16	15	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:    Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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