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In mid September 2008 the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 47.5% (up 3%), a lead of 11% (up 4.5%) over the Labour Party 36.5% (down 1.5%) as the 2008 Election campaign begins. If the Election were this weekend the National Party would lead the winning Coalition.

Support for NZ First 5% (up 2.5%) has rebounded after the party funding scandal that engulfed leader Winston Peters while support for the Greens 6.5% (down 1.5%) has fallen back.

Support for the Maori Party was 1.5% (down 2%), ACT NZ 1.5% (unchanged), United Future 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others 1% (unchanged).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating at 103 points (down 12) has fallen with the calling of the New Zealand Election with 44% (down 6.5%) of New Zealanders saying the country is “heading in the right direction” compared to 41% (up 5.5%) that say the country is “heading in the wrong direction.”

The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating has continued to rise, increasing 2.6 points to 109.9 points.

Gary Morgan says:                         

“Helen Clark has finally put an end to the speculation regarding the election date, announcing the New Zealand election to be held on November 8 — the same week that Americans go to the polls to elect a new President.

“The bounce that Helen Clark’s Government enjoyed in the wake of the Olympics and the tragic camping story has passed and the National Party has consolidated its lead as New Zealanders turn their focus to the election.

“With a little over seven weeks until polling day the National Party remain in the best position to form Government. The National Party has led consistently since early February and currently holds an 11% lead.(47.5% cf. 36.5%)

“The small rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating, up 2.6 points to 109.9, should give the Government some hope that Helen Clark can be re-elected as Prime Minister in November.”

 

Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” 

This latest Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 823 electors from September 1 — 14, 2008.

During the Period

• Prime Minister Helen Clark announced the date of the 2008 New Zealand election to be November 8, 2008 — which happens to be only four days after the US Presidential Election.

• The political week of September 8-12 was almost exclusively devoted to the “Winston Peters/Owen Glen donations fiasco”. In front of the Privileges Committee, both Peters and millionaire business man Owen Glen told their side of the story. Glen — who flew in from Monaco — came over to clear his name and gave compelling evidence that he donated $100,000 to Peters and NZ First. The evidence was so unequivocal that Peters was backed into a corner that he cannot escape — despite his denials. Some are now calling him a liar.  Many are predicting the end of his 30 year political career.

• As Labour had also evaded the truth in their partial knowledge in this, coupled with Helen Clark’s support of Peters, they are also tarred with the same brush. The net result may be some fallout in support for NZ First and Labour.

• The Governing Labour Party has been leaking National Party draft policy documents. Releasing National Party policy on Conservation and Environment on September 3. On September 9 it was Research Science and Technology. On September 10 it was Health. The National Party were forced to officially launch some of the health party policy on September 11.

• ACT leader Rodney Hide has laid a complaint with the police over one of Winston Peters’ unaccounted for political donations. Hide feels that a police enquiry may be conducted quicker than one done by a government department.

• National commence their election campaign with a series of outdoor billboards.

• National Party leader John Key compares himself with Barak Obama in a (British) Financial Times interview. Helen Clark has labelled this comparison as “absolutely ludicrous”.

• In the US, the US Treasury effectively nationalised the giant mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in an effort to confront the turmoil in American — and global — stock-markets. As we look back a week later, it looks like far more will be needed to achieve this aim.

VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY

The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:

PRIMARY VOTE	Labour	National	Progressive Party	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
General Election, July 27, 2002	41.3	20.9	1.7	10.4	7	6.7	n/a	7.1	6.6
General Election, September 17, 2005	41.1	39.1	1.16	5.72	5.3	2.67	2.12	1.51	2.48
MORGAN POLL
September 20 - October 2, 2005	36.5	41.5	1	4.5	9	3	1	1.5	3
October 4-16, 2005	39	40.5	1	5	7	3.5	2	1.5	0.5
October 18-31, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	6	9	3.5	1	1	1.5
November 1-14, 2005	37.5	40	0.5	7	7	3	2	2	1
November 15-27, 2005	39	40.5	1	5.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	1
November 28 - December 9, 2005	40	40	0.5	6	7.5	2.5	1	1.5	1
January 4-12, 2006	40.5	42.5	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	2	0.5	1.5
January 13—23, 2006	39	40.5	0	4.5	8.5	3	1.5	1.5	1.5
January 24 - February 5, 2006	38.5	39	0.5	5.5	9.5	3	1.5	2.5	0
February 7-19, 2006	40	40	0.5	3.5	10	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
February 22 - March 6, 2006	43	39	0.5	4.5	7.5	1.5	1.5	1.5	1
March 7-19, 2006	42.5	41	0	3.5	7.5	2	2	1	0.5
March 20 - April 2, 2006	40	43	0.5	4.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1.5
April 3-16, 2006	41.5	40	1	3.5	7	2	2	2.5	0.5
April 17-30, 2006	40.5	40.5	0.5	3.5	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	-
May 1-14, 2006	39.5	41	0.5	5	7.5	3	1	1.5	1
May 15-28, 2006	41	44	0.5	3	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	1
May 29 — June 11, 2006	40	44.5	-	4.5	6.5	2	1	1.5	-
June 12-25, 2006	37	45	0.5	5	6.5	1.5	2	1.5	1
July 3-16, 2006	43	39	-	4.5	8	2	1	1.5	1
July 17 - 30, 2006	40	42	-	3.5	8.5	2	2	1	1
July 31 - August 13, 2006	39	41	-	3.5	9	3	2	1.5	1
August 14-27, 2006	38.5	44	0.5	4	7	1	2.5	1.5	1
August 28 - September 10, 2006	41	38	0.5	5.5	8.5	2	3	1.5	^
September 16 - October 1, 2006	36	41.5	-	7	8.5	2.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
October 2-15, 2006	40	40	^	5	8.5	1.5	1.5	2	1.5
October 16-29, 2006	38.5	41	^	3	8	3	2.5	1.5	2.5
October 30 — November 12, 2006	38.5	42.5	0.5	5	7.5	1.5	2.5	0.5	1.5
November 13 - 26, 2006	37.5	42.5	^	4.5	8	3	2	1.5	1
November 27 - December 12, 2006	37.5	44.5	0.5	4	9.5	2	1	0.5	0.5
January 3-21, 2007	41	41	0.5	4	7.5	1	2	1.5	1.5
January 23 - February 5, 2007	39.5	41.5	0.5	4	8	1.5	2	2.5	0.5
February 6-18, 2007	36	48.5	^	3	8.5	1.5	1.5	1	-
February 19 - March 4, 2007	36	45	0.5	2	8.5	1.5	3.5	2.5	0.5
March 5-18, 2007	37.5	45	^	4	7.5	1.5	3.5	1	-
March 19 - April 2, 2007	35.5	46	^	3.5	9.5	1	2.5	1	1
April 3-16, 2007	33.5	45.5	^	6	8.5	2	2	1	1.5
April 23 - May 6, 2007	36	49.5	^	4.5	6	1.5	1.5	0.5	0.5
May 7-20, 2007	32	49	0.5	4.5	7	1.5	2.5	1.5	1.5
May 21 - June 3, 2007	33.5	50.5	-	3.5	6.5	2	1.5	2	0.5
June 4-17, 2007	36	49.5	0.5	3	6.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1
June 18 - July 1, 2007	34	48.5	1	2.5	8.5	1.5	2	1	1
July 2-15, 2007	36	47	0.5	5	6.5	1	2	1.5	0.5
July 16-29, 2007	35	49	0.5	4	6	0.5	3	0.5	1.5
July 30 - August 12, 2007	31	50.5	0.5	4	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
August 20 - September 2, 2007	34	48	0.5	2.5	9.5	0.5	3	1	1
September 3-16, 2007	35	49	^	2.5	7.5	1	3	1.5	0.5
September 17-30, 2007	33	48.5	0.5	3	9.5	1.5	2.5	1	0.5
October 1-14, 2007	39	45.5	^	3	7.5	1.5	2	0.5	1
October 15-28, 2007	40.5	45	^	3.5	6.5	1.5	1.5	1	0.5
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007	34	48	^	5.5	7.5	1	2.5	1	0.5
November 12-25, 2007	35	48	0.5	5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
November 26-December 9, 2007	34.5	47.5	0.5	5	6	1.5	2	2	1
January 3-20, 2008	33.5	52	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	2	1	0.5
January 21-February 3, 2008	36.5	45.5	0.5	4	9	0.5	1.5	2	0.5
February 4-17, 2008	32.5	51.5	0.5	3	8	0.5	3	0.5	0.5
February 18-March 2, 2008	35	49.5	0.5	4	7	0.5	2	1	0.5
March 3-16, 2008	34	51	0.5	3	6.5	1	2	2	0.5
March 24-April 6, 2008	34.5	47	0.5	4	9	0.5	3	1.5	^
April 7 - 20, 2008	35.5	50	^	3.5	6.5	0.5	2.5	1.5	^
April 21 - May 4, 2008	35.5	49.5	^	4.5	6.5	1	2	1	^
May 5-18, 2008	35	49	^	4	7.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
May 19 - June 1, 2008	32	50.5	0.5	4	7	1	3	1.5	0.5
June 2-15, 2008	31.5	52.5	^	4	7	0.5	2	2	0.5
June 16-29, 2008	30.5	51.5	^	4	8	1	2.5	2	0.5
June 30-July 13, 2008	31	52	0.5	6.5	7.5	1	1	0.5	^
July 14-27, 2008	32.5	47.5	^	5	8	0.5	3	2.5	1
July 28-August 10, 2008	34	48	^	6.5	7.5	^	2	1.5	0.5
August 18-31, 2008	38	44.5	^	2.5	8	1	3.5	1.5	1
September 1-14, 2008	36.5	47.5	^	5	6.5	0.5	1.5	1.5	1

*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.

New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary

Auckland

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July 2006	38	44.5	0.5	5.5	6	2	1.5	1.5	0.5
August 2006	38.5	43.5	^	3	8.5	2.5	2	1.5	0.5
September 2006	41	41.5	0.5	2.5	8	2.5	1.5	1.5	1
October 2006	35	44.5	^	5	9.5	2	2	2	^
November 2006	33	47	0.5	5.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
December 2006	36	46	^	4	9	1.5	2	1	0.5
January 2007	38	44	0.5	3.5	7.5	1.5	2	1.5	1.5
February 2007	34.5	49.5	0.5	3.5	6.5	0.5	1	3	1
March 2007	37.5	46	^	2.5	8	1.5	2.5	1.5	0.5
April 2007	35.5	45	^	2.5	10	2	2.5	2	0.5
May 2007	35	48	^	3.5	7	2	3	0.5	1
June 2007	30.5	54.5	^	3.5	6.5	1	1	2	1
July 2007	32.5	52	^	2	5.5	2	3	2	1
August 2007	30	53	^	4.5	6.5	1.5	2.5	1	1
September 2007	32.5	54.5	^	2	6.5	^	3.5	0.5	0.5
October 2007	35.5	51	^	2.5	6.5	1	2.5	1	^
November 2007	36	50	^	5	4.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
December 2007	33.5	51.5	^	4	5	1	2	2.5	0.5
January 2008	38	46.5	0.5	4	7.5	0.5	1	2	^
February 2008	34	51.5	0.5	2	8	^	2	1	1
March 2008	29	53	^	3	9	1	1.5	2.5	1
April 2008	34	51.5	^	4.5	6	0.5	1.5	2	^
May 2008	31	53.5	0.5	3.5	6	1	3.5	1	^
June 2008	33.5	50.5	^	3.5	8	0.5	1.5	2.5	^
July 2008	31	51.5	0.5	4	7	1	2.5	2	0.5
August 2008	37.5	45	^	6	6	^	2.5	2.5	0.5

Wellington

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	47.5	36	^	2.5	7.5	1.5	2	2	1
September — October 2006	50	32.5	0.5	1.5	8	2	1.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	44.5	36.5	^	1.5	9	3.5	2	1.5	1.5
January — February 2007	44	38	0.5	1.5	11.5	1	2	1	0.5
March — April 2007	41.5	38.5	^	4	8.5	2	4	0.5	1
May — June 2007	36.5	43.5	^	3	10.5	2	2	1.5	1
July — August 2007	40.5	41.5	0.5	2.5	9	2	2.5	1.5	^
September — October 2007	39.5	38	1	2.5	13.5	2	2	1	0.5
November — December 2007	34	41	0.5	3	13	2	2.5	2.5	1.5
January — February 2008	38.5	43.5	^	3	10.5	0.5	2.5	1	0.5
March — April 2008	41	42.5	^	2.5	10	1	2	1	^
May — June 2008	38.5	43	^	2.5	10	0.5	1.5	3.5	0.5
July — August 2008	36.5	43	^	4.5	11	0.5	2	1.5	1

Christchurch

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	42	41	^	2.5	10	2	0.5	1	0.5
September — October 2006	39	40	0.5	6.5	8	1.5	0.5	2.5	1.5
November — December 2006	43.5	36.5	1	5	8.5	2.5	0.5	2	1
January — February 2007	38	40	1	3	11	2.5	1	2.5	1
March — April 2007	33.5	43.5	1	6	10	2.5	1	1.5	1
May — June 2007	38	47.5	1	2.5	6.5	1	1.5	1	1
July — August 2007	36	46	1.5	5	7	1.5	1	^	2
September — October 2007	43	42.5	0.5	1	8	1	2	1	1
November — December 2007	39	47.5	1	3.5	7	0.5	0.5	1	^
January — February 2008	31.5	55	1	3	7.5	0.5	0.5	0.5	0.5
March — April 2008	38.5	44	1	1.5	9.5	1	2	2	0.5
May — June 2008	34.5	51.5	^	4.5	7	1	0.5	^	1
July — August 2008	38.5	46	0.5	3.5	8.5	0.5	0.5	1	1

Other North Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	36.5	43.5	^	6	7	2	3	1.5	0.5
September — October 2006	34.5	42	^	8	7.5	1.5	4.5	1.5	0.5
November — December 2006	35.5	44.5	^	5	7	2.5	3.5	1	1
January — February 2007	37	45	^	5.5	6	1.5	3.5	1	0.5
March — April 2007	32	49.5	^	5	6.5	1	4	1.5	0.5
May — June 2007	33.5	51.5	^	5.5	4.5	1.5	2	1	0.5
July — August 2007	32	50	0.5	4.5	7	1	3.5	1	0.5
September — October 2007	32	49	^	4.5	8.5	1	4	0.5	0.5
November — December 2007	35.5	46.5	^	6	5.5	1	3.5	1	1
January — February 2008	31	47.5	^	8.5	5	0.5	6.5	0.5	0.5
March — April 2008	26	55	^	7.5	6	1	3.5	1	^
May — June 2008	33	46.5	0.5	5	5	0.5	7.5	1	1
July — August 2008	24	53	^	11.5	6.5	0.5	3.5	0.5	0.5

Other South Island

MORGAN POLL	Labour	National	Progressive Alliance	NZ First	Green Party	United Future	Maori Party*	ACT NZ	Other
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
July — August 2006	41	40.5	^	3	11	2.5	0.5	^	1.5
September — October 2006	43.5	42	^	3.5	7	2	1	1	^
November — December 2006	40.5	42.5	1	2.5	9	3	1	^	0.5
January — February 2007	46.5	40.5	^	1.5	8.5	1.5	^	0.5	1
March — April 2007	40	44	^	3	10	1	1	0.5	0.5
May — June 2007	36	49.5	^	3	7	1	1	1.5	1
July — August 2007	38	46	1	3	7	1	1.5	0.5	2
September — October 2007	35.5	49.5	^	1.5	8.5	2	1	1.5	0.5
November — December 2007	39	44.5	^	5	9	2	^	0.5	^
January — February 2008	32.5	57.5	^	2	3.5	1.5	1.5	1	0.5
March — April 2008	42.5	50.5	^	1.5	2	^	1	1	1.5
May — June 2008	25	55.5	^	5.5	10	2.5	^	0.5	1
July — August 2008	32.5	47	0.5	5	11	1	1.5	0.5	1

NEW ZEALAND: HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION?

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in New Zealand are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Aug 20-Sep 2, 2007	Sep 3-16, 2007	Sep 17-30, 2007	Oct 1-14, 2007	Oct 15-28, 2007	Oct 29-Nov 11, 2007	Nov 12-25, 2007	Nov 26-Dec 9, 2007	Jan 3-20, 2008	Jan 21-Feb 3, 2008	Feb 4-17, 2008	Feb 18-Mar 2, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	51.5	54	49.5	53	50.5	43.5	47	47.5	46.5	46	47	52.5
Wrong direction	35.5	32.5	34.5	32	33	37.5	37	38	39	38.5	41	34
Roy Morgan GCR#	116	121.5	115	121	117.5	106	110	109.5	107.5	107.5	106	118.5
Can’t say	13	13.5	16	15	16.5	19	16	14.5	14.5	15.5	12	13.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

	New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating: Interviewing Dates
	Mar 3-16, 2008	Mar 24- Apr 6, 2008	Apr 7-20, 2008	April 21-May 4, 2008	May 5-18, 2008	May 19-June 1, 2008	June 2-15, 2008	June 16-29, 2008	June 30-July 13, 2008	July 14-27, 2008	July 28-Aug 10, 2008	Aug 18-31, 2008	Sep 1-14, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Right direction	45.5	47.5	50.5	44.5	38	38	42.5	37	36.5	38.5	44.5	50.5	44
Wrong direction	37.5	37.5	34.5	40.5	44.5	44.5	40.5	49	49.5	47	41	35.5	41
Roy Morgan GCR#	108	110	116	104.5	93.5	93.5	102	88	87	91.5	103.5	115	103
Can’t say	17	15	15	15	17.5	17.5	17	14	14	14.5	14.5	14	15
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (The Roy Morgan GCR is 100 plus the difference between the percentage of New Zealanders who say the country is “heading in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “seriously heading in the wrong direction”).

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Finding No. 4319 is taken from Computer Report No. 2257

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

Finding No. 4319 is taken from Computer Report No. 2257

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