ALP well ahead before Nelson replaced by Turnbull
| Finding No. 4320 -
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,703 electors.:
September 19, 2008 |
In mid September, ALP support was 45% (down 5%) comfortably ahead of L-NP support 38% (up 1%). On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was 55.5% (down 2.5%), while support for the L-NP is 44.5% (up 2.5%).
If the Federal Election were held today the ALP would win according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekends of September 6/7 & 13/14.
Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 8% (up 1.5%), support for Family First 1.5% (down 0.5%) and Independents/Others 7.5% (up 3%).
The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is unchanged at 119 points. Australia is “heading in the right direction” according to 51.5% (up 0.5%) of Australians, compared to 32.5% (up 0.5%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”
The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating (conducted on the weekend of September 13/14) has rebounded strongly in the last month from a 17-year low reached in early August of 90.1, rising 9.2 points to 99.3 in late August. After the RBA cut interest rates by 0.25% on September 2, the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating rose a further 1.9 points to 101.2 — the highest since March.
Gary Morgan says:
“After becoming Opposition Leader in the aftermath of electoral defeat last November, Brendan Nelson battled to establish himself as a credible alternative Prime Minister.
“Our latest Morgan Poll shows Dr. Nelson was making little impression on the electorate, with the Liberal Party trailing 44.5% cf. 55.5% on a two-party preferred basis — even as the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating recently reached a 17-year low.
“The decision by the Liberal Party to elect Malcolm Turnbull as its new leader earlier this week gives the party a chance to redefine itself in the minds of the electorate and provide the Government with some renewed Opposition.
“Vale Brendan Nelson.”
Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?”
This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,703 electors.
During the polling period:
- The Reserve Bank cut interest rates by 0.25%, down to 7%. Interest rates have been raised twelve times since 2002.
- Professor Ross Garnaut released his report recommending Australia reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 10% by 2020 and supporting a carbon trading scheme. The report was criticised by many as being too soft.
- The West Australian election ended in a hung parliament, with the Nationals joining with the Liberals to form a minority government. The Liberals agreed to the Nationals leader Brendon Grylls’ demand that 25% of the state’s mining royalties be spent in regional areas.
- John McCain accepted the Republican Party’s presidential nomination at the party’s national convention. Sarah Palin accepted the vice presidential nomination, amidst more intense media attention.
- The Federal Government’s luxury car tax was rejected in the Senate by the Opposition and Family First Senator Steve Fielding.
- Fairfax journalists ended their strike which began after Fairfax cut 550 jobs, mainly editorial positions.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)
|
|
|
|
The |
Family |
Ind./ |
|
|
ALP |
L-NP |
Greens |
First# |
Others |
|
RECENT ELECTION RESULTS |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
38.8 |
47.3 (8.6) |
1.7 |
† |
12.2 |
|
Election October 3, 1998^ |
40.1 |
39.5 (5.3) |
2.1 |
† |
18.3 |
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
37.8 |
43 (5.6) |
4.4 |
† |
13.8 |
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
37.6 |
46.4 (5.9) |
7.2 |
2.0 |
6.8 |
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
43.4 |
42.1 (5.5) |
7.8 |
2.0 |
4.7 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
49 |
36.5 (3.5) |
7 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face: Face) |
49.5 |
34 (2.5) |
10.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
33 (2.5) |
8 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
53 |
32(2) |
10 |
1 |
4 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008(Face : Face) |
49 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
5 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
50 |
34.5 (3) |
8 |
1 |
6.5 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33 (3) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56.5 |
31.5(3) |
6.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55.5 |
30.5 (2.5) |
9 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
53.5 |
34 (2.5) |
5.5 |
1.5 |
5.5 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
31 (2) |
7 |
3 |
4 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
51 |
34 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53.5 |
33.5 (2) |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
54 |
32 (3) |
8.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54 |
33.5 (4.5) |
6.5 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
55 |
33 (2.5) |
6 |
1 |
5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
33.5 (3.5) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
52.5 |
32.5 (2) |
8 |
2 |
5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008(Phone) |
47 |
37 (2.5) |
9 |
1 |
6 |
|
May 17,18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
51.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
1 |
4 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
53 |
34(3) |
5.5 |
2.5 |
5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52.5 |
31.5 (2.5) |
9 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
45.5 |
38.5(2) |
8.5 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
36 (3) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
52 |
34 (2) |
8 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48.5 |
35 (2.5) |
8 |
2.5 |
6 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
48 |
34.5 (2.5) |
11.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2) |
7.5 |
2 |
5.5 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
45.5 |
39.5 (2.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
6 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
47 |
37.5 (4) |
8.5 |
2 |
5 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
50 |
37 (3) |
6.5 |
2 |
4.5 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14. 2008 (Face : Face) |
45 |
38 (3.5) |
8 |
1.5 |
7.5 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15 |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
Note: National Party results are in brackets
# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004
TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)
| |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
|
| |
% |
% |
|
|
|
Election March 2, 1996 |
46.4 |
53.6 |
|
|
|
Election October 3, 1998^ |
51 |
49 |
|
|
|
Election November 10, 2001 |
49 |
51 |
|
|
|
Election October 9, 2004 |
47.3 |
52.7 |
|
|
|
Election November 24, 2007 |
52.7 |
47.3 |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Preferences distributed
by how electors
say they will vote |
Preferences distributed
by how electors voted
at the 2007 election |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
| MORGAN POLL |
ALP |
L-NP |
ALP |
L-NP |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58.5 |
41.5 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
63 |
37 |
63 |
37 |
|
Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60 |
40 |
59 |
41 |
|
Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
60 |
40 |
60 |
40 |
|
Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63 |
37 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
64.5 |
35.5 |
|
Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
34.5 |
65 |
35 |
|
Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
64.5 |
35.5 |
63.5 |
36.5 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
62 |
38 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
64 |
36 |
62.5 |
37.5 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62.5 |
37.5 |
61.5 |
38.5 |
|
May 3/4, 2008(Face : Face) |
64 |
36 |
62 |
38 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
58 |
42 |
58 |
42 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
39 |
60.5 |
39.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
38 |
61 |
39 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
36.5 |
63 |
37 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
56 |
44 |
56 |
44 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58.5 |
41.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
38.5 |
61 |
39 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
59 |
41 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
40.5 |
60 |
40 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
55 |
45 |
55 |
45 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
54.5 |
45.5 |
55 |
45 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
42.5 |
57 |
43 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59 |
41 |
58 |
42 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
56 |
44 |
55.5 |
44.5 |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15 |
| |
|
|
|
|
** Phone Poll
^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle
THINK WILL WIN
Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"
|
Think Will Win |
ALP |
L-NP |
Can't Say |
|
|
% |
% |
% |
|
Dec 5/6, 2007 (Phone) |
58 |
14.5 |
27.5 |
| Dec 1/2 & 8/9, 2007 (Face : Face) |
61 |
17 |
22 |
| Jan 5/6 & 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65 |
15 |
20 |
| Jan 23/24, 2008 (Phone) |
65 |
10.5 |
24.5 |
| Jan 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64 |
16 |
20 |
| Jan 30/31, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
9 |
25.5 |
| Feb 2/3 & 9/10, 2008 (Face : Face) |
65.5 |
17 |
17.5 |
| Feb 16/17 & 23/24, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
| Mar 1/2 & 8/9, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14 |
15.5 |
| Mar 11/12, 2008 (Phone) |
71 |
13 |
16 |
| Mar 15/16 & 22/23, 2008 (Face : Face) |
70.5 |
14.5 |
15 |
| Mar 26/27 & Apr 2/3, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
12.5 |
16 |
|
Apr 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
71.5 |
15 |
13.5 |
|
Apr 9/10, 2008 (Phone) |
71.5 |
10 |
15 |
|
Apr 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72 |
15.5 |
12.5 |
|
Apr 16/17, 2008 (Phone) |
73 |
12 |
15 |
|
Apr 19/20 & 26/27, 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
15.5 |
12 |
|
May 3/4. 2008 (Face : Face) |
72.5 |
14 |
13.5 |
|
May 7-11, 2008 (Phone) |
70.5 |
11.5 |
18 |
|
May 17/18, 2008 (Face : Face) |
69.5 |
17 |
13.5 |
|
May 24/25, 2008 (Face : Face) |
68 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
|
May 31 - June 1, 2008 (Face : Face) |
63.5 |
20.5 |
16 |
|
June 4-9, 2008 (Phone) |
65.5 |
21 |
13.5 |
|
June 7/8, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
20 |
18.5 |
|
June 14/15 & 21/22, 2008 (Face : Face) |
64.5 |
21 |
14.5 |
|
June 28/29 & July 5/6, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61.5 |
23.5 |
15 |
|
July 12/13, 2008 (Face : Face) |
66 |
22 |
12 |
|
July 19/20, 2008 (Face : Face) |
61 |
24 |
15 |
|
July 26/27 & August 2/3, 2008 (Face : Face) |
59.5 |
24.5 |
16 |
|
August 9/10 & 16/17, 2008 (Face : Face) |
62 |
23 |
15 |
|
August 23/24 & 30/31, 2008 (Face : Face) |
60.5 |
23.5 |
14 |
|
September 6/7 & 13/14, 2008 (Face : Face) |
57.5 |
26.5 |
16 |
| |
|
Malcolm Turnbull replaces Brendan Nelson as Leader of the Opposition on September 15 |
| |
|
|
|
AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION
Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”
| |
Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government |
| |
May
26/27 |
June
2/3 |
June 9/10
& 16/17 |
June 23/24 &
June 30/July 1 |
July 7/8
& 14/15 |
July 21/22
& 28/29 |
Aug 4/5
& 11/12 |
Aug 18/19
& 25/26 |
Sep
1/2 |
Sep
8/9 |
Sep
15/16 |
Sep
22/23 |
Sep
29/30 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
50.5 |
48.5 |
51.5 |
51.5 |
55.5 |
49 |
49 |
48.5 |
47 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
49.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
33 |
32.5 |
33.5 |
31 |
30 |
33.5 |
34.5 |
33 |
34.5 |
37 |
32 |
32 |
34.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
117.5 |
116 |
118 |
120.5 |
125.5 |
115.5 |
114.5 |
115.5 |
112.5 |
111 |
120.5 |
120 |
115 |
|
Can’t say |
16.5 |
19 |
15 |
17.5 |
14.5 |
17.5 |
16.5 |
18.5 |
18.5 |
15 |
15.5 |
16 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — L-NP Government |
| |
Oct
6/7 |
Oct
13/14 |
Oct
17/18 |
Oct
20/21 |
Oct
24/25 |
Oct
27/28 |
Nov
3/4 |
Nov
7/8 |
Nov
10/11 |
Nov
15-17 |
Nov
17/18 |
Nov
21/22 |
Nov
23 |
| |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Phone |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
53 |
57.5 |
53 |
53.5 |
63.5 |
56 |
50 |
55.5 |
55.5 |
48 |
52.5 |
52 |
54 |
|
Wrong direction |
28.5 |
29 |
31.5 |
30 |
28 |
30 |
30.5 |
31 |
29 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
30 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
124.5 |
128.5 |
121.5 |
123.5 |
135.5 |
126 |
119.5 |
124.5 |
126.5 |
111 |
122.5 |
118 |
124 |
|
Can’t say |
18.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
16.5 |
8.5 |
14 |
19.5 |
13.5 |
15.5 |
15 |
17.5 |
14 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Brendan Nelson) |
| |
Dec
5/6 |
Dec 1/2
& 8/9 |
Jan 5/6
& 12/13 |
Jan
23/24 |
Jan 19/20
& 26/27 |
Jan
30/31 |
Feb 2/3
& 9/10 |
Feb 16/17
& 23/24 |
Mar 1/2
& 8/9 |
Mar
11/12 |
Mar 15/16
& 22/23 |
Mar 26/27
& Apr 2/3 |
Apr
5/6 |
Apr
9/10 |
Apr
12/13 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
60 |
64 |
64 |
61 |
59.5 |
62 |
62.5 |
61 |
62.5 |
51.5 |
53.5 |
54 |
56.5 |
49.5 |
59 |
|
Wrong direction |
15.5 |
16.5 |
17 |
19 |
20 |
20 |
18.5 |
22 |
20 |
29.5 |
27.5 |
26.5 |
25 |
26 |
23 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
144.5 |
147.5 |
147 |
142 |
139.5 |
142 |
144 |
139 |
142.5 |
122 |
126 |
127.5 |
131.5 |
123.5 |
136 |
|
Can’t say |
24.5 |
19.5 |
19 |
20 |
20.5 |
18 |
19 |
17 |
17.5 |
19 |
19 |
19.5 |
18.5 |
24.5 |
18 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
| |
Interviewing Dates — ALP Government (v Brendan Nelson) |
| |
Apr
16/17 |
Apr 19/20
& 26/27 |
May 3/4 |
May
7-11 |
May
17/18 |
May
24/25 |
May 31
& June 1 |
June 4-9 |
June 7/8 |
June 14/15 & 21/22 |
June 28/29 & July 5/6 |
July
|
July
19/20 |
July 26/27 & Aug 2/3 |
Aug 9/10 & 16/17 |
Aug 23/24 & 30/31 |
Sep 6/7
& 13/14 |
| |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Phone |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
Face |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
Right direction |
55 |
59 |
56.5 |
52 |
56 |
53 |
49.5 |
48 |
54 |
48 |
45.5 |
47 |
43.5 |
47.5 |
52 |
51 |
51.5 |
|
Wrong direction |
26.5 |
27.5 |
25.5 |
29 |
25 |
31.5 |
30 |
31 |
27 |
34 |
34 |
34.5 |
36.5 |
35.5 |
29 |
32 |
32.5 |
|
Roy Morgan GCR* |
128.5 |
131.5 |
131 |
123 |
130 |
121.5 |
119.5 |
117 |
127 |
114 |
111.5 |
112.5 |
107 |
112 |
123 |
119 |
119 |
|
Can’t say |
18.5 |
13.5 |
18 |
19 |
18 |
15.5 |
20.5 |
21 |
19 |
18 |
20.5 |
18.5 |
20 |
17 |
19 |
17 |
16 |
|
Total |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
100 |
Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.
* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
500 |
±4.5 |
±3.9 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
| 1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
2,000 |
±2.2 |
±1.9 |
±1.3 |
±1 |
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).
The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors). The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.
Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.
The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%). Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll. On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”
View Federal Voting Intention Trend
The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
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