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A series of polls have been released this week in the wake of Malcolm Turnbull’s election to the leadership of the Federal Liberal Party to replace outgoing leader Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader. These polls suggest that Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed an immediate bounce in support after becoming Liberal leader on Tuesday, September 16.

Roy Morgan is conducting special research to quantify the “Honeymoon effect” for Malcolm Turnbull as the special Morgan Poll taken September 10/11 can be directly measured against a new special Morgan Poll being conducted this week across Australia.

Preferred Prime Minister / Better Prime Minister

	Before Turnbull as Opposition Leader*	After Turnbull elected Opposition Leader*
Polling Organisation	Morgan Poll	Galaxy/ News Ltd.	ACNielsen/Fairfax	Newspoll	Morgan Poll
Interviewing Dates	Sep. 10-11	Sep. 17-18	Sep. 18-20	Sep. 19-21	Sep. 24-25
	%	%	%	%	%
Mr. Rudd	63	58	56	54	tba
Mr. Turnbull	24	28	33	24	tba
Rudd lead over Turnbull	39	30	23	30	tba
Other / Can’t say	13	14	11	22	tba
Total	100	100	100	100	100

* Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008.

Gary Morgan says:

“The special Morgan Polls we are undertaking this week will gauge community support for new Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull.

“Even before being elected Opposition Leader Turnbull’s support amongst Coalition supporters was already strong with Malcolm Turnbull preferred over Kevin Rudd 52% cf. 36% - this is far better than predecessor Brendan Nelson who trailed Kevin Rudd 35% cf. 39% even amongst Coalition supporters”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of September 10/11, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 544 electors.

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Electors 18+				Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	63	91	36	83	66	49
Turnbull	44*	38*	9**	24	5	52	13	-	13
Other / Neither	5	10	14	13	4	12	4	34	38
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

** Brendan Nelson was Coalition Leader

	Electors 18+				Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	63	63	63	71	72	58	60
Turnbull	44*	38*	9**	24	25	23	13	17	25	29
Other / Neither	5	10	14	13	12	14	16	11	17	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

** Brendan Nelson was Coalition Leader

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

For further information:

Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

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