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The latest Morgan Poll taken this week finds 55% (down 8% in 2 weeks) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, 30% (up 6% in 2 weeks) prefer Malcolm Turnbull while 15% (up 2%) are undecided or prefer someone else. The special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last 2 nights (September 24/25, 2008) during heavy publicity covering the Worldwide Financial Crisis and with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in New York.

The Morgan Poll also finds 55% (down 1% since September 10/11) of electors approve of the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister, 31% (down 2%) disapprove and 14% (up 3%) are undecided. In comparison in 14 days 43% of Australian electors approve of the way Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull is handling his job while 24% (9% fewer than Mr Rudd) disapprove and a ‘high’ 33% are still undecided.

Analysis by voting intention shows that of ALP supporters 83% approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, 7% disapprove and 10% are undecided. In comparison, of L-NP supporters 51% approve of the way Mr Turnbull is handling his job, 15% disapprove and 34% are undecided.

The latest Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted in conjunction with this Special Morgan Poll finds the ALP ahead 57% cf. 43% of the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis after the election of Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader.

Better Prime Minister — Rudd v Turnbull

	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008#	Sep. 24/25, 2008
	%	%	%
Mr. Rudd	77	63	55
Mr. Turnbull	9*	24	30
Rudd lead over Turnbull	68	39	25
Other / Can’t say	14	13	15
Total	100	100	100

*Brendan Nelson was the Leader of the Opposition

# Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008; this Special Morgan Poll was taken with Rudd v Turnbull before Turnbull became Leader of the Opposition.

Gary Morgan says:

“The latest Morgan Poll clearly shows that Kevin Rudd’s preference as ‘Better Prime Minister’ has dropped to 55% (down 8% in two weeks and 22% since February 2008) while Malcolm Turnbull (30%, up 6%) has gained support after his election as the new Opposition Leader.

“Support is split strongly along party lines with ALP voters preferring Rudd 86% cf. only 4% for Turnbull. L-NP supporters strongly support Turnbull, 68% cf. 18% - with 14% undecided.

“Malcolm Turnbull is providing sterner opposition to Kevin Rudd than did his predecessor Brendan Nelson. A large number of voters have still not made up their minds about Turnbull with a ‘high’ 33% undecided about their approval of the new Opposition Leader.

“This presents an opportunity to Turnbull to appeal to more voters as the World Financial Crisis is presenting a ‘huge’ challenge to the Rudd Government.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of September 24/25, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 574 electors.

A Special Morgan Poll next week looks at voters concerns about Kevin Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull. Common themes emerging are:

Some Concerns about Kevin Rudd:

Economic Concerns about Rudd

“He is far more interested in other issues like climate change, while the economy is going so badly.”

“He's not doing anything. The economy is going down since he came in, things just keep getting worse. The unions have too much power over him.”

Rudd is all talk/ doesn’t fulfil promises/ lack of action

“Too many meetings, not enough action.”

“There’s a series of issues, none of them ever get resolved. He’s constantly moving to next issue. Lots of ‘verbage’ about 'new' issues. No decisions. Nothing is resolved.”

Rudd is always overseas/ never here/ travels too much

“He lacks the ability to stay put and deal with the issues. He's always jet-setting about rather than dealing with people.”

“He is not handling his job properly and he is mostly overseas. He is needed more here in Australia."

Some Concerns about Malcolm Turnbull:

Lack of Experience

“I don’t think he is politically experienced yet.”

“He hasn't really got any policies out, but it's probably too early to say.”       

Turnbull’s Arrogance

“He is an arrogant bulldozer.”

“He is arrogant and out of touch with most voters.”

Turnbull’s Wealth and Class

“He's a very wealthy man by birth, how can he look at real life for the average Australian?”

“He doesn't know what it's like to struggle. He's too rich to be aware of how other people live.”

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull. In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Electors 18+					Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%		%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	63	55	86	18	73	47	41
Turnbull	44*	38*	9**	24**	30	4	68	14	26	26
Other / Neither	5	10	14	13	15	10	14	13	27	33
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

** Brendan Nelson was Coalition Leader

		Electors 18+				Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%		%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	63	55	53	56	61	63	51	53
Turnbull	44*	38*	9**	24**	30	30	30	18	21	32	34
Other / Neither	5	10	14	13	15	17	14	21	16	17	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* John Howard was Coalition Leader

** Brendan Nelson was Coalition Leader

Approval of Leaders — Kevin Rudd v Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Electors 18+
	Nov 3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007*	May 16/17, 2007*	Aug 21/22, 2007*	Feb 20/21, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	59	56	53	44	71	56	55
Disapprove	34	39	42	51	14	33	31
Approve - Disapprove	25	17	11	-7	57	23	24
Other / Can’t say	7	5	5	5	15	11	14
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* John Howard (L-NP) was Prime Minister

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep 24/25, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	83	25	67	48	34
Disapprove	31	7	62	15	37	54
Approve - Disapprove	24	76	-37	52	11	-20
Other / Can’t say	14	10	13	18	15	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Sep 24/25, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	57	54	57	63	56	52
Disapprove	31	32	31	24	21	32	36
Approve - Disapprove	24	25	23	33	42	24	16
Other / Can’t say	14	11	15	19	16	12	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Electors 18+
	Nov 3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007^	May 16/17, 2007^	Aug 21/22, 2007^	Feb 20/21, 2008**	Sep 10/11, 2008**	Sep 24/25, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	64	72	74	32	38	43
Disapprove	43	11	17	19	42	44	24
Approve - Disapprove	4	53	55	55	-10	-6	19
Other / Can’t say	10	25	11	7	26	18	33
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Mark Latham (ALP) was Opposition Leader

^ Kevin Rudd (ALP) was Opposition Leader

** Brendan Nelson (L-NP) was Opposition Leader

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep 24/25, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	43	38	51	46	53	19
Disapprove	24	30	15	33	23	31
Approve - Disapprove	19	8	36	13	30	-12
Other / Can’t say	33	32	34	21	24	50
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Sep 24/25, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	43	40	45	36	39	48	42
Disapprove	24	26	21	19	24	21	27
Approve - Disapprove	19	14	24	17	15	27	15
Other / Can’t say	33	34	34	45	37	31	31
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

 

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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