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Republican Presidential nominee John McCain was most effective when pledging to “hold people accountable” for those who have caused the US Financial Crisis that is threatening Global economic stability.

In contrast, Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama appealed most strongly to the uncommitted voters that will decide the US Presidential Election when promising to “restore America’s standing in the World” and " … bringing that war (Iraq) to a close.”

On Saturday (September 27, 2008), voters all over the United States reacted to the 1st US Presidential Debate between Democratic Presidential nominee Barack Obama and Republican Presidential nominee John McCain held at the University of Mississippi on the evening of Friday September 26, 2008 using the Roy Morgan Reactor.

An America-wide sample of 503 voters (198 voters for Barack Obama, 196 voters for John McCain and 109 uncommitted voters) was selected by Roy Morgan Research using a representative sample of the American electorate.

Using the Roy Morgan Reactor, respondents reacted online to the 1st US Presidential Debate between Barack Obama and John McCain as they outlined their plans on seven key issues each. Respondents reacted according to whether the candidates’ proposals made them “more inclined to Barack Obama or John McCain.”

The Reactor graph shows clearly how McCain supporters (the Red line) reacted, how Obama supporters (the Blue line) reacted and importantly, how “uncommitted” voters (the Black line) reacted. The higher on the graph the more ‘inclined to vote for the candidate’ speaking at that moment, the lower on the graph the less ‘inclined to vote for the candidate’ speaking at that moment.

Importantly, the strongest impact John McCain had on the uncommitted voters was pledging to “hold people accountable” (for the Financial Crisis) and “reward people who succeed” McCain’s pledge that “As President of the United States, people are going to be held accountable in my Administration and I promise you, that’ll happen,” was the most effective argument he used during the debate to appeal to the uncommitted voters he is after.

Arguments that did not work for McCain among uncommitted voters centred around Iraq and his talk of “social economic progress” in Iraq and “the people of the country then become allied with you (America), they inform on the bad guys and peace comes to the country and prosperity — that’s what's happening in Iraq.” These sentiments heavily turned off uncommitted voters and Obama supporters.

The biggest turn-off for Obama supporters was when McCain challenged Obama’s preparedness for the Presidency, “There are some advantages to experience and knowledge and judgment, and I honestly don’t believe that Senator Obama has the knowledge or experience and has made the wrong judgments in a number of areas.”

Democratic candidate Barack Obama scored his strongest blow when he stated that “One of the things I intend to do as President is to restore America’s standing in the World.” Uncommitted voters reacted very positively to these sentiments and it was the strongest argument put forward by Obama in appealing to uncommitted voters.

Another strong argument by Obama was when he pointed out the drain on American wallets by the War in Iraq, Obama’s statement that “We’re currently spending $10 billion a month in Iraq when they have a $79 billion surplus. If we’re going to be strong at home as well as being strong abroad we’ve got to look at bringing that war to a close,” resonated strongly with uncommitted voters as well as his own supporters.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Typically, voters react positively to the candidate they intend to vote for, or on issues where the candidates have differing views or policies.  The voters’ reaction to the Presidential candidates displayed some of the usual ‘party-line’ response.

“Although Barack Obama was the ‘hero’ of uncommitted voters with his comments on restoring America’s standing in the World, given the crucial concerns of the electorate about the current World Financial Crisis, John McCain’s strength in that area put him ahead on the issue of the day.”

“This Roy Morgan Reactor test is a first for the US. All previous US audience measures of TV debates have been studio-based. In the past, while every effort may have been made to select a well-defined audience sample they were necessarily based in one geographic location.

“It is also of particular interest that the Roy Morgan Reactor results are able to be segmented into different demographic subgroups and regions.

“As we have seen from the data, McCain and Obama supporters respond very differently to the issues and speakers.”

Click to see the live Reactor.

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9

More details available at: /products/the-reactor/the-reactor.cfm

If a TV Station would like to run this Reactor Test with a better quality resolution please email Morgan Poll Manager: Julian.McCrann@RoyMorgan.com

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                    Office + 61 3 9224 5213          Mobile + 61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:                 Office + 61 3 9224 5215          Mobile + 61 411 129 093

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