12% of Australians are ‘underemployed’ or unemployed
1.3 million Australians want work or more work
RBA Interest rate cut to 6.00% is a ‘step in the right direction’
| Finding No. 4326 -
This Special Roy Morgan estimate on Australia’s ‘underemployed’* is based on interviews with 92,641 Australians aged 14 and over face-to-face on the weekends between January 2007 – September 2008.:
October 07, 2008 |
During the September 2008 Quarter the Roy Morgan ‘underemployed’* estimate was 735,000 (6.7%) Australian workers, 16,000 higher than the corresponding September 2007 Quarter result.
The Roy Morgan September 2008 Quarter unemployment estimate of 584,000 (5.3%) means there are 1,319,000 (12.0%) Australians either unemployed or ‘underemployed.’*
The Roy Morgan September 2008 Quarter ‘underemployed’* estimate is virtually unchanged from the June 2008 Quarter - falling by 16,000 from the June Quarter estimate of 751,000 ‘underemployed.’*
The Roy Morgan September 2008 Quarter estimate for the number of Australians who are part of the workforce (i.e. employed or looking for work) is up 196,000 from the June Quarter to 10,954,000 — and 283,000 above the September 2007 Quarter — “Work Choices” has worked.
| |
2007 |
2008 |
Change |
| |
Unemployed or Underemployed |
Unemployed |
Underemployed |
Unemployed or Underemployed |
Unemployed |
Underemployed |
% |
|
Jan—Mar# |
1,500,000 |
757,000 |
743,000 |
1,382,000 |
646,000 |
736,000 |
-7.9% |
|
Apr—June |
1,275,000 |
596,000 |
679,000 |
1,383,000 |
632,000 |
751,000 |
8.5% |
|
July—Sep |
1,333,000 |
614,000 |
719,000 |
1,319,000 |
584,000 |
735,000 |
-1.1% |
|
Oct—Dec |
1,406,000 |
647,000 |
759,000 |
|
|
|
| # The revised Howard Government Work Choices legislation was implemented in 2006, just prior to the time period when the survey began.
To find detailed statistics on Australia’s true unemployment rate please see the Roy Morgan Quarterly Unemployment release for the September Quarter released yesterday and showing an Australian unemployment rate of 5.3% - a full 1.2% above the 4.1% figure currently quoted by the ABS.
Gary Morgan says:
“The Reserve Bank has taken the correct action today with a 1.0% cut in official interest rates to 6.0% - the first time it has cut by 1.0% since May 1992. However, interest rates should never have been put up in November 2007 nor twice in 2008.
“The immediate bounce in both the share-market and the value of the Australian dollar from the overnight lows shows the wisdom of the RBA’s decision.
“We said just before the Federal Election in November 2007 (“Reserve Bank turns up the heat on Australian workers.”) “…the RBA… needs to look across the Pacific Ocean to the turbulent state of the US credit market and US stock market to find ample reason for the RBA to tread cautiously on raising Australian interest rates at the present time.” — unfortunately they took little notice of this advice!
“As Roy Morgan’s real unemployment and ‘underemployment’* estimates show for July — September 2008 more than 1.3 million Australians are either unemployed or ‘underemployed’* looking for more work.
“The Roy Morgan ‘underemployed’* statistics show Australia has a ‘hidden resource’ - a vast ‘army of workers’ under-utilised and overlooked.
“In the US, where the news is all about the ‘Financial crisis’ facing the country, yesterday CNN pointed out their concern regarding the number of ‘underemployed’* in the US.
“In Australia, this issue is well known among those who follow real measures of unemployment and the economy, and articulated clearly in Michele Levine’s paper ‘The Fantasy of Full Employment’ presented at the National Press Club, ACT on March 14, 2008. Yet Australia’s media ignores the ‘underemployment’* issue — is Australia’s media’ ignorant’ or just biased by 'sins of omission’? (probably both)
“The Reserve Bank has finally realised the extent of the problems facing the Australian economy, and those looking for work and looking for more work
“The world ‘Financial crisis’ means both the Government and the Reserve Bank need to provide increased stimulus to the economy to prevent an Australian recession and to provide employment opportunities for the more than 12% of the Australian workforce that want work or more work — a very simple point.
“Unless there is continued quick and decisive action the issue today is: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Australia? A Woman and it will be sooner than you think!”
This Special Roy Morgan estimate on Australia’s ‘underemployed’* is based on interviews with 92,641 Australians aged 14 and over face-to-face on the weekends between January 2007 — September 2008.
*The ‘underemployed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment estimate.)
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
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The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews. An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when. The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews. Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month. The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they have been actively looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.
Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published!
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