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Now 62.5% (up 7.5% in 3 weeks) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, 24% (down 6% in 3 weeks) prefer Malcolm Turnbull while 13.5% (down 1.5%) are undecided or prefer someone else. This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last 2 nights (October 15/16, 2008) as the ‘World Financial crisis’ panicked markets around the world.

This Morgan Poll also finds 64% (up 9% since September 24/25) of electors approve of the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister, 23% (down 8%) disapprove and 13% (down 1%) are undecided.

Malcolm Turnbull has enjoyed a strong rise in his approval, up 12% to 55% — the highest it has been for an Opposition Leader since last year’s election. Only 24% (unchanged) of Australians disapprove and a 21% (down 12%) are still undecided about Turnbull’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader.

Analysis by voting intention shows that of ALP supporters 88% (up 5%) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, only 5.5% (down 1.5%) disapprove and 6.5% (down 3.5%) are undecided.

In comparison, of L-NP supporters 70.5% (up 19.5%) approve of the way Mr Turnbull is handling his job, 14.5% (down 0.5%) disapprove and 15% (up 19%) are undecided.

The latest face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention conducted with this special Morgan Poll finds the ALP ahead 57.5% cf. 42.5% of the L-NP on a two-party preferred basis, while this telephone Morgan Poll conducted on the nights of October 15/16 shows the ALP 57% well ahead of the L-NP 43%.

Better Prime Minister — Rudd v Turnbull

	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008#	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008
	%	%	%	%
Mr. Rudd	77	63	55	62.5
Mr. Turnbull	9*	24	30	24
Rudd lead over Turnbull	68	39	25	38.5
Other / Can’t say	14	13	15	13.5
Total	100	100	100	100

*Brendan Nelson was the Leader of the Opposition; # Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008; this Special Morgan Poll was taken with Rudd v Turnbull before Turnbull became Leader of the Opposition.

Gary Morgan says:

“This special Morgan Poll shows that as ‘chaos’ has engulfed world financial markets, 62.5% (up 7.5%) of Australians support incumbent Kevin Rudd as Australia’s “Better Prime Minister.”

“Supporting the country’s leadership is a natural response in times of crisis and Kevin Rudd has been the prime beneficiary, although Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (55%, up 12%) should take comfort in the strong rise in his approval rating

“The ‘World Financial crisis’ offers both challenges and opportunities to both leaders. The drop in the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating to a 17-year low of 89.5 is a signal to Kevin Rudd that he must provide strong leadership and implement proactive policies to prevent Australia sliding into a recession.

"As the alternative Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull must establish his credibility as an economic manager and to do this must keep the pressure on the Government to deliver results for all Australians.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of October 15/16, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 795 electors.

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	63	55	62.5	91	20.5	90.5	42	58.5
Turnbull	44*	38*	9**	24**	30	24	3.5	61.5	2.5	24	16
Rudd Lead	7	14	68	39	25	38.5	87.5	— 41	88	18	42.5
Other / Neither	5	10	14	13	15	13.5	5.5	18	7	34	25.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; * John Howard was Coalition Leader; ** Brendan Nelson was Coalition Leader

	Electors 18+						Analysis by Sex and Age
	May 2007	Aug 2007	Feb 21/22, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	51	52	77	63	55	62.5	63	62	78	72.5	65	53
Turnbull	44*	38*	9**	24**	30	24	25	23.5	13.5	16	23.5	31
Rudd Lead	7	14	68	39	25	38.5	38	38.5	64.5	56.5	41.5	22
Other / Neither	5	10	14	13	15	13.5	12	14.5	8.5	11.5	11.5	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; * John Howard was Coalition Leader; ** Brendan Nelson was Coalition Leader

Approval of Leaders — Kevin Rudd v Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Electors 18+
	Nov 3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007*	May 16/17, 2007*	Aug 21/22, 2007*	Feb 20/21, 2008	Sep 10/11, 2008	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	59	56	53	44	71	56	55	64
Disapprove	34	39	42	51	14	33	31	23
Approve - Disapprove	25	17	11	-7	57	23	24	41
Other / Can’t say	7	5	5	5	15	11	14	13
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* John Howard (L-NP) was Prime Minister

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Oct 15/16, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	64	88	33.5	72	72	61
Disapprove	23	5.5	52	9.5	24	10.5
Approve - Disapprove	41	82.5	-18.5	62.5	48	50.5
Other / Can’t say	13	6.5	14.5	18.5	4	28.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Oct 15/16, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	64	64.5	63.5	71.5	62	65	62.5
Disapprove	23	23.5	22.5	11	18	24	27.5
Approve - Disapprove	41	41	41	60.5	44	41	35
Other / Can’t say	13	12	14	17.5	20	11	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Electors 18+
	Nov 3/4, 2004*	Jan 4-7, 2007^	May 16/17, 2007^	Aug 21/22, 2007^	Feb 20/21, 2008**	Sep 10/11, 2008**	Sep 24/25, 2008	Oct 15/16, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	47	64	72	74	32	38	43	55
Disapprove	43	11	17	19	42	44	24	24
Approve - Disapprove	4	53	55	55	-10	-6	19	31
Other / Can’t say	10	25	11	7	26	18	33	21
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Mark Latham (ALP) was Opposition Leader; ^ Kevin Rudd (ALP) was Opposition Leader; ** Brendan Nelson (L-NP) was Opposition Leader

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Oct 15/16, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	53	70.5	34.5	34.5	37.5
Disapprove	24	28.5	14.5	43.5	39	28.5
Approve - Disapprove	31	24.5	56	-9	-4.5	9
Other / Can’t say	21	18.5	15	22	26.5	34
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Oct 15/16, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	55	55.5	54.5	37	48	56.5	60
Disapprove	24	23.5	25	32.5	29	24	23
Approve - Disapprove	31	32	29.5	4.5	19	32.5	37
Other / Can’t say	21	21	20.5	30.5	23	19.5	17
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:          Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2012 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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