A special poll conducted on the Melbourne City Council elections shows that failed former Liberal Party leader Robert Doyle, who led the Liberal Party to a crushing defeat in the 2002 Victorian State election — the heaviest defeat the Liberal Party had ever suffered in Victoria, winning only 17 out of 88 Lower House seats, is nonetheless favoured to win the upcoming Melbourne City Council Election for a new Lord Mayor.

Robert Doyle was preferred by 26.5% of electors, clearly ahead of Greens candidate Adam Bandt (16.5%), current Councillor Catherine Ng (10%), current Deputy Lord Mayor Gary Singer (5%) and Roy Morgan Executive Chairman, Gary Morgan, 3.5%.

On second preferences, Gary Morgan received 18%, ahead of Robert Doyle (16%), Catherine Ng (15%), Peter McMullin (8%), Gary Singer (6%) and Adam Bandt (4.5%).

Candidate	MCC Electors (Oct. 29/30, 2008)
	1st Preference			2nd Preference#			1st or 2nd Preference
	%			%			%
Robert Doyle	26.5			16			42.5
Adam Bandt (Greens)	16.5			4.5			21
Catherine Ng	10			15			25
Gary Singer	5			6			11
Gary Morgan	3.5			18			21.5
Nick Columb	3			2			5
Peter McMullin	2			8			10
Will Fowles	1.5			3			4.5
Others*	0.5			2			2.5
Can’t Say/ Undecided	31.5
TOTAL		100

* Other candidates for the role of Lord Mayor of Melbourne are Joseph Toscano, Bob Crawford & Shelley Roberts.
# The 31.5% of people who were can’t say/undecided have been eliminated from the 2nd Preference.

Gary Morgan says:

“Robert Doyle is clearly favoured to become Melbourne’s new Lord Mayor in a matter of weeks, however, no candidate has sufficient votes to secure the position and preferences will decide the successful candidate.”

This special telephone poll on all Melbourne City Council Lord Mayor candidates was conducted on October 29-30, 2008, with a representative sample of 330 electors, both residents and business, in the City of Melbourne.

The survey was conducted for concerned residents of the City of Melbourne including residents groups in Carlton and Docklands.

The survey was conducted under the “Gallup Poll” name to ensure the name ‘Morgan’ — in the Morgan Poll — did not influence respondents. (Roy Morgan Research is the Australian and New Zealand Member of Gallup International.)

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4