National Party with lead but Maori Party the key on Election eve
| Finding No. 4334 -
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,038 electors from October 20 – November 2, 2008.:
November 07, 2008 |
On the eve of the 2008 Election the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National Party support at 42% (down 1%), a 7.5% lead over the Labour Party at 34.5% (up 2.5%).
The MMP system used to elect Parliament means the next Government is likely to be a Coalition led by the National Party with support from ACT NZ, United Future and perhaps the Maori Party. The alternative is a Labour Party led Coalition with support from the Greens, NZ First and the Maori Party.
Support for the Greens 10% (down 1.5%) is near its record high of 11.5%, while support for NZ First is 4.5% (unchanged), ACT NZ 4% (up 0.5%), the Maori Party 2.5% (unchanged), United Future 1% (up 0.5%) and Others and Independents 1.5% (down 0.5%).
The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating (98.3 points, up 1.3 points) has risen slightly after the RBNZ cut interest rates by 1% to 6.5%.
Gary Morgan says:
“The New Zealand Election is almost here and electors go to the polls tomorrow to elect a new Government. In recent weeks the New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll has shown a ‘tightening in the race’ between the Governing Labour Party led by Helen Clark and Opposition Leader John Key’s National Party.
“Despite this, the National Party is still favoured to lead a Coalition Government with support from minor parties ACT NZ, United Future and perhaps the Maori Party.
“The recent rises in support for the Labour Party though have given real hope to the Clark Government that it could yet form a Coalition Government with the support of the Greens, Progressive Party and the Maori Party.
“The Maori Party have been heavily courted by both major parties but are yet to declare which of the major parties they would support to form a Government. In the event of a hung Parliament in which they hold the balance of power, the Maori Party are potential ‘kingmakers.’
Electors were asked: “If an election were held today which party would receive your party vote?”
This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone with a New Zealand-wide cross-section of 1,038 electors from October 20 — November 2, 2008.
VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY
The following table compares the latest NZ Morgan Polls on Voting Intention with the result from the September 17, 2005 General Election:
|
PRIMARY VOTE |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
General Election, July 27, 2002 |
41.3 |
20.9 |
1.7 |
10.4 |
7 |
6.7 |
n/a |
7.1 |
6.6 |
|
General Election, September 17, 2005 |
41.1 |
39.1 |
1.16 |
5.72 |
5.3 |
2.67 |
2.12 |
1.51 |
2.48 |
|
MORGAN POLL |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
September 20 - October 2, 2005 |
36.5 |
41.5 |
1 |
4.5 |
9 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
3 |
|
October 4-16, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5 |
7 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 18-31, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
9 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
November 1-14, 2005 |
37.5 |
40 |
0.5 |
7 |
7 |
3 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
November 15-27, 2005 |
39 |
40.5 |
1 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 28 - December 9, 2005 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
6 |
7.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
January 4-12, 2006 |
40.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 13—23, 2006 |
39 |
40.5 |
0 |
4.5 |
8.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 24 - February 5, 2006 |
38.5 |
39 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
9.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0 |
|
February 7-19, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
10 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 22 - March 6, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
March 7-19, 2006 |
42.5 |
41 |
0 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 20 - April 2, 2006 |
40 |
43 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 3-16, 2006 |
41.5 |
40 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 17-30, 2006 |
40.5 |
40.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
- |
|
May 1-14, 2006 |
39.5 |
41 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
3 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May 15-28, 2006 |
41 |
44 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
May 29 — June 11, 2006 |
40 |
44.5 |
- |
4.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
- |
|
June 12-25, 2006 |
37 |
45 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 3-16, 2006 |
43 |
39 |
- |
4.5 |
8 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July 17 - 30, 2006 |
40 |
42 |
- |
3.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 31 - August 13, 2006 |
39 |
41 |
- |
3.5 |
9 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 14-27, 2006 |
38.5 |
44 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
August 28 - September 10, 2006 |
41 |
38 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8.5 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September 16 - October 1, 2006 |
36 |
41.5 |
- |
7 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2-15, 2006 |
40 |
40 |
^ |
5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
|
October 16-29, 2006 |
38.5 |
41 |
^ |
3 |
8 |
3 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
|
October 30 — November 12, 2006 |
38.5 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
November 13 - 26, 2006 |
37.5 |
42.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
8 |
3 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
November 27 - December 12, 2006 |
37.5 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 3-21, 2007 |
41 |
41 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January 23 - February 5, 2007 |
39.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
8 |
1.5 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 6-18, 2007 |
36 |
48.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
- |
|
February 19 - March 4, 2007 |
36 |
45 |
0.5 |
2 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
March 5-18, 2007 |
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
- |
|
March 19 - April 2, 2007 |
35.5 |
46 |
^ |
3.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
April 3-16, 2007 |
33.5 |
45.5 |
^ |
6 |
8.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1.5 |
|
April 23 - May 6, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
May 7-20, 2007 |
32 |
49 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
May 21 - June 3, 2007 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
- |
3.5 |
6.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 4-17, 2007 |
36 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
June 18 - July 1, 2007 |
34 |
48.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
July 2-15, 2007 |
36 |
47 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
July 16-29, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
0.5 |
4 |
6 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
|
July 30 - August 12, 2007 |
31 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 20 - September 2, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 3-16, 2007 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 17-30, 2007 |
33 |
48.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
9.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 1-14, 2007 |
39 |
45.5 |
^ |
3 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
October 15-28, 2007 |
40.5 |
45 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
October 29-Novmber 11, 2007 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
5.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November 12-25, 2007 |
35 |
48 |
0.5 |
5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November 26-December 9, 2007 |
34.5 |
47.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
6 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1
|
|
January 3-20, 2008 |
33.5 |
52 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 21-February 3, 2008 |
36.5 |
45.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
February 4-17, 2008 |
32.5 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
3 |
8 |
0.5 |
3 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
February 18-March 2, 2008 |
35 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March 3-16, 2008 |
34 |
51 |
0.5 |
3 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
March 24-April 6, 2008 |
34.5 |
47 |
0.5 |
4 |
9 |
0.5 |
3 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 7 - 20, 2008 |
35.5 |
50 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
April 21 - May 4, 2008 |
35.5 |
49.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
|
May 5-18, 2008 |
35 |
49 |
^ |
4 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
May 19 - June 1, 2008 |
32 |
50.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
June 2-15, 2008 |
31.5 |
52.5 |
^ |
4 |
7 |
0.5 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 16-29, 2008 |
30.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
8 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
June 30-July 13, 2008 |
31 |
52 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
|
July 14-27, 2008 |
32.5 |
47.5 |
^ |
5 |
8 |
0.5 |
3 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
July 28-August 10, 2008 |
34 |
48 |
^ |
6.5 |
7.5 |
^ |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 18-31, 2008 |
38 |
44.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
8 |
1 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
September 1-14, 2008 |
36.5 |
47.5 |
^ |
5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
September 22-October 5, 2008 |
37.5 |
40.5 |
1 |
4 |
9 |
1 |
2 |
3.5 |
1.5 |
|
October 6-19, 2008 |
32 |
43 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
2 |
|
October 20-November 2, 2008 |
34.5 |
42 |
^ |
4.5 |
10 |
1 |
2.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
*The Maori Party was launched in July 2004; ^ Result less than 0.5%
The Morgan Poll was the most accurate in predicting the small margin between the two major parties (a Labour lead of 1.5%) for the September 2005 General Election.
New Zealand Regional Voting Intention Summary
Auckland
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July 2006 |
38 |
44.5 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
6 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
August 2006 |
38.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September 2006 |
41 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
8 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
October 2006 |
35 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
9.5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
^ |
|
November 2006 |
33 |
47 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
December 2006 |
36 |
46 |
^ |
4 |
9 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
January 2007 |
38 |
44 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
February 2007 |
34.5 |
49.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
|
March 2007 |
37.5 |
46 |
^ |
2.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
April 2007 |
35.5 |
45 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
May 2007 |
35 |
48 |
^ |
3.5 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
June 2007 |
30.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
|
July 2007 |
32.5 |
52 |
^ |
2 |
5.5 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
August 2007 |
30 |
53 |
^ |
4.5 |
6.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
September 2007 |
32.5 |
54.5 |
^ |
2 |
6.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
October 2007 |
35.5 |
51 |
^ |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
November 2007 |
36 |
50 |
^ |
5 |
4.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
December 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4 |
5 |
1 |
2 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
January 2008 |
38 |
46.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
2 |
^ |
|
February 2008 |
34 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
8 |
^ |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
March 2008 |
29 |
53 |
^ |
3 |
9 |
1 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
April 2008 |
34 |
51.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
6 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
^ |
|
May 2008 |
31 |
53.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
6 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
June 2008 |
33.5 |
50.5 |
^ |
3.5 |
8 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
^ |
|
July 2008 |
31 |
51.5 |
0.5 |
4 |
7 |
1 |
2.5 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
|
37.5 |
45 |
^ |
6 |
6 |
^ |
2.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
|
|
32.5 |
47.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
4 |
1.5 |
|
|
34 |
42 |
0.5 |
5 |
8 |
1 |
3 |
5 |
1.5 |
Wellington
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
47.5 |
36 |
^ |
2.5 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
September — October 2006 |
50 |
32.5 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
8 |
2 |
1.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
44.5 |
36.5 |
^ |
1.5 |
9 |
3.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2007 |
44 |
38 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
11.5 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
41.5 |
38.5 |
^ |
4 |
8.5 |
2 |
4 |
0.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
10.5 |
2 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
40.5 |
41.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
9 |
2 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
^ |
|
September — October 2007 |
39.5 |
38 |
1 |
2.5 |
13.5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2007 |
34 |
41 |
0.5 |
3 |
13 |
2 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
January — February 2008 |
38.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
3 |
10.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2008 |
41 |
42.5 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
^ |
|
May — June 2008 |
38.5 |
43 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
|
|
36.5 |
43 |
^ |
4.5 |
11 |
0.5 |
2 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
|
37 |
37.5 |
^ |
4 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Christchurch
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
42 |
41 |
^ |
2.5 |
10 |
2 |
0.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
39 |
40 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
8 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
43.5 |
36.5 |
1 |
5 |
8.5 |
2.5 |
0.5 |
2 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
38 |
40 |
1 |
3 |
11 |
2.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
1 |
|
March — April 2007 |
33.5 |
43.5 |
1 |
6 |
10 |
2.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
|
May — June 2007 |
38 |
47.5 |
1 |
2.5 |
6.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
July — August 2007 |
36 |
46 |
1.5 |
5 |
7 |
1.5 |
1 |
^ |
2 |
|
September — October 2007 |
43 |
42.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
8 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
November — December 2007 |
39 |
47.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
7 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
January — February 2008 |
31.5 |
55 |
1 |
3 |
7.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2008 |
38.5 |
44 |
1 |
1.5 |
9.5 |
1 |
2 |
2 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2008 |
34.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
4.5 |
7 |
1 |
0.5 |
^ |
1 |
|
|
38.5 |
46 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
38.5 |
40.5 |
1 |
4 |
11.5 |
0.5 |
1 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
Other North Island
|
MORGAN POLL |
Labour |
National |
Progressive
Party |
NZ
First |
Green
Party |
United
Future |
Maori
Party* |
ACT NZ |
Other |
| |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
% |
|
July — August 2006 |
36.5 |
43.5 |
^ |
6 |
7 |
2 |
3 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2006 |
34.5 |
42 |
^ |
8 |
7.5 |
1.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2006 |
35.5 |
44.5 |
^ |
5 |
7 |
2.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
January — February 2007 |
37 |
45 |
^ |
5.5 |
6 |
1.5 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2007 |
32 |
49.5 |
^ |
5 |
6.5 |
1 |
4 |
1.5 |
0.5 |
|
May — June 2007 |
33.5 |
51.5 |
^ |
5.5 |
4.5 |
1.5 |
2 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
July — August 2007 |
32 |
50 |
0.5 |
4.5 |
7 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
0.5 |
|
September — October 2007 |
32 |
49 |
^ |
4.5 |
8.5 |
1 |
4 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
November — December 2007 |
35.5 |
46.5 |
^ |
6 |
5.5 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
January — February 2008 |
31 |
47.5 |
^ |
8.5 |
5 |
0.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
March — April 2008 |
26 |
55 |
^ |
7.5 |
6 |
1 |
3.5 |
1 |
^ |
|
May — June 2008 |
33 |
46.5 |
0.5 |
5 |
5 |
0.5 |
7.5 |
1 |
1 |
|
|
24 |
53 |
^ |
11.5 |
6.5 |
0.5 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
|
31 |
45 |
^ |
6 |
9 |
1 |
4 |
2.5 |
1.5 |
Other South Island
|
