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Unemployment to increase / decrease

The “World Financial Crisis” has hit Australians and 70% (up 44% since October 2007 and the highest since November 1990) now expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months while only 20% (up 3%) say that unemployment will fall and 8% (down a large 39%) say unemployment will remain the same over the next 12 months. Just 2% (down 8%) don’t know.

Job security

Despite a majority of Australians expecting unemployment in Australia to rise in the next 12 months, 80% (unchanged) of Australians who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 18% (unchanged) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and only 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

Finding a new job

In Australia, 63% (down 9% from the 2007 record-high of 72%) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly.  Thirty-four per cent (up 13%) say it might take longer to find a new job and 3% (down 4%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or don’t know.

Gary Morgan says:

 

“The latest annual Australian Roy Morgan International survey on attitude towards employment shows a never before seen jump in the number of Australians expecting unemployment to increase in 2009. Now 70% (up a record 44%) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in 2009 — the highest since November 1990 during Australia’s last recession.

“Although Australians are worried about unemployment, they are not yet worried about their own employment — with an unchanged 80% of Australians saying their present job is safe — Unfortunately, that can’t be the case for all of them!

“Australia already has more than 1.3 million unemployed or ‘underemployed.’* The Rudd Government needs to take decisive action to support business by cutting corporate taxes and allowing Australian business’ to ‘start hiring again.’ If not, the unemployed and ‘underemployed.’* will soar past 2 million in 2009.

“In this week’s BRW magazine, Chairman of IbisWorld, and economic commentator, Phil Ruthven refers directly to the problems of unemployment and ‘underemployment’* Australia currently faces.

“In the new year, Gallup International will be releasing comparable results from more than 50 countries.”

These findings come from a special Morgan Poll conducted in Australia on attitudes towards employment in the coming 12 months. In Australia, a cross-section of 648 men and women aged 14 or over were interviewed by telephone on November 1-4, 2008.

*The ‘underemployed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment estimate.)

NEW ZEALAND RESULTS WILL BE RELEASED IN TWO WEEKS

For further information:

Gary Morgan:     Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:   Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

1. Unemployment

Respondents were first asked: “In the next 12 months, do you expect the number of unemployed in Australia  to increase a lot, to increase slightly, remain the same, fall slightly, or fall a lot?”

Nearly three-quarters (70%, up 44% since Oct. 2007) of Australians expect unemployment to increase in the next 12 months — the highest since November 1990 (81%), 20% (up 3%) expect unemployment to fall, while only 8% (down 39%), and the lowest since December 1982, believe there will be no change (2% didn’t know).

Expect Unemployment to…	Increase	Fall	No change	Don’t know
	%	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	88	6	6	*
Nov ‘91	76	11	13	*
Nov ‘92	52	25	23	*
Nov ‘93	38	33	29	*
Nov ‘98	68	14	18	*
Nov ‘99	32	31	37	*
Dec ‘00	33	30	37	*
Dec ‘01	36	27	37	*
Dec ‘02	37	31	32	*
Dec ‘03	35	28	37	*
Dec ‘04	29	29	42	*
Nov ‘05	44	19	37	*
Nov ‘06	37	21	38	4
Nov ‘07	31	20	45	4
Australia:
1975	64	21	15	*
1976	60	19	21	*
1977	64	20	16	*
1978	73	10	17	*
1979	69	10	21	*
1980	67	11	22	*
Dec ‘82	88	5	7	*
Oct ‘83	54	23	23	*
Nov ‘84	44	30	26	*
Nov ‘85	49	27	24	*
Nov ‘86	63	13	24	*
Dec ‘87	59	16	25	*
Nov ‘88	48	22	30	*
Nov ‘89	50	18	32	*
Nov ‘90	81	10	9	*
Aug ‘91	65	17	18	*
Nov ‘91	62	22	16	*
Jul ‘92	54	24	22	*
Nov ‘92	55	22	23	*
Nov ‘93	44	27	29	*
Nov ‘94	32	42	26	*
Nov ‘95	49	23	28	*
Jul ‘97	47	25	28	*
Nov ‘97	45	26	29	*
Nov ‘98	53	20	27	*
Nov ‘99	38	29	33	*
Dec ‘00	50	20	30	*
Dec ‘01	60	16	24	*
Dec ‘02	44	19	37	*
Dec ‘03	39	22	39	*
Dec ‘04	36	24	40	*
Nov ‘05	40	21	39	*
Nov ‘06	40	24	32	4
Oct ‘07	26	17	47	10
Nov '08	70	20	8	2

* “Don’t know” result included in “No change” Australia 1975-2005, New Zealand 1991-2005

2. Job Security in Australia and New Zealand

Those respondents who work full-time or part-time were then asked: “Do you think your present job is safe, or do you think there's a chance you may become unemployed?”

Four-in-five Australians (80% unchanged since Oct. 2007) who work full or part-time say their present job is safe, while 18% (unchanged) say there is a chance they may become unemployed and 2% (unchanged) don’t know.

Job Security	Present job safe	Chance of unemployment	Don't know
	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	54	41	5
Nov ‘91	60	36	4
Nov ‘92	66	29	5
Nov ‘98	73	20	7
Nov ‘99	76	21	3
Dec ‘00	80	17	3
Dec ‘01	84	15	1
Dec ‘02	81	14	5
Dec ‘03	84	14	2
Dec ‘04	85	13	2
Nov ‘05	84	13	3
Nov ‘06	85	13	2
Nov ‘07	83	13	4
Australia:
1975	76	21	3
1976	78	17	5
1977	82	15	3
1978	79	19	2
1979	77	20	3
1980	73	23	4
Dec ‘82	72	25	3
Oct ‘83	79	18	3
Nov ‘84	82	17	1
Nov ‘85	79	18	3
Nov ‘86	80	17	3
Dec ‘87	80	18	2
Nov ‘88	81	18	1
Nov ‘89	82	17	1
Nov ‘90	70	28	2
Aug ‘91	70	28	2
Nov ‘91	69	27	4
Jul ‘92	69	29	2
Nov ‘92	65	32	3
Nov ‘93	73	25	2
Nov ‘94	74	22	4
Nov ‘95	74	23	3
Jul ‘97	73	24	3
Nov ‘97	77	21	2
Nov ‘98	81	16	3
Nov ‘99	74	25	1
Dec ‘00	75	20	5
Dec ‘01	75	22	3
Dec ‘02	79	20	1
Dec ‘03	78	20	2
Dec ’04	79	19	2
Nov ‘05	83	15	2
Nov ‘06	81	17	2
Oct ‘07	80	18	2
Nov '08	80	18	2

3. Finding a New Job If Unemployed

Full-time and part-time workers were then asked: “If you became unemployed, do you think you'd be able to find a new job fairly quickly — or do you think it might take longer?”

In Australia, 63% (down 9% since Oct. 2007) of workers say that if they were to become unemployed they’d be able to find a new job fairly quickly. Thirty-four per cent (up 13%) say it might take longer to find a new job and 3% (down 4%) either wouldn’t look for a new job or don’t know.

Finding a New Job if Unemployed	New job found quickly	May take longer	Wouldn't look / Don’t know
	%	%	%
New Zealand:
Aug ‘91	30	58	12
Nov ‘91	35	54	11
Nov ‘92	39	50	11
Nov ‘98	50	40	10
Nov ‘99	64	29	7
Dec ‘00	51	39	10
Dec ‘01	58	31	11
Dec ‘02	67	26	7
Dec ‘03	66	28	6
Dec ‘04	69	24	7
Nov ‘05	71	23	6
Nov ‘06	70	25	5
Nov ‘07	72	21	7*
Australia:
1975	57	33	10
1976	57	33	10
1977	55	35	10
1978	50	41	9
1979	54	36	10
1980	50	39	11
Dec ‘82	44	46	10
Oct ‘83	51	41	8
Nov ‘84	61	33	6
Nov ‘85	58	34	8
Nov ‘86	61	30	9
Dec ‘87	65	30	5
Nov ‘88	69	26	5
Nov ‘89	68	26	6
Nov ‘90	49	45	6
Aug ‘91	39	53	8
Nov ‘91	39	53	8
Jul ‘92	38	53	9
Nov ‘92	39	54	7
Nov ‘93	50	43	7
Nov ‘94	60	33	7
Nov ‘95	58	32	10
Jul ‘97	52	42	6
Nov ‘97	58	36	6
Nov ‘98	55	38	7
Nov ‘99	63	30	7
Dec ‘00	59	33	8
Dec ‘01	54	39	7
Dec ‘02	66	29	5
Dec ‘03	64	33	3
Dec ‘04	67	28	5
Nov ‘05	62	34	4
Nov ‘06	63	32	5
Oct ‘07	72	21	7**
Nov '08	63	34	3**

* Includes “Don’t know” result of 3%

** Includes “Don’t know” result of 3%

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4
1,500	±2.6	±2.2	±1.5	±1.1

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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