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In mid November, ALP support was 50.5% (up 1.5%) well ahead of L-NP support 35.5% (down 0.5%). On a two-party preferred basis, support for the ALP was 59.5% (up 1%), while support for the L-NP is 40.5% (down 1%).

If the Federal Election were held today the ALP would win easily according to the latest face-to-face Morgan Poll conducted on the weekends of November 15/16 & 22/23.

Among the minor parties, support for the Greens is 7.5% (down 1%), support for Family First 2% (unchanged) and Independents/Others 4.5% (unchanged).

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down 1 point to 132 points. Australia is “heading in the right direction” according to 56% (down 1.5%) of Australians, compared to 24% (down 0.5%) that say Australia is “heading in the wrong direction.”

Gary Morgan says: 

“The Rudd Government has opened up its largest lead over the Opposition since Malcolm Turnbull defeated Brendan Nelson for the leadership.

“ALP primary support at 50.5% (up 1.5%) is at its highest since June 2008 (52%) and the two-party preferred lead of 59.5% cf. 40.5% is the highest since a lead of 60% cf. 40% in mid July 2008.

“The pro-active actions taken by the Government to stop the “World Financial Crisis” causing an Australian recession are helping to solidify support for the Rudd Government during these tough times.

“However, there is still more work to be done, the Government must increase the fiscal stimulus and keep the pressure on the Reserve Bank to lower interest rates by at least 1% at their meeting next Tuesday to provide the support the Australian economy needs.”

 

Electors were asked: “If a Federal election for the House of Representatives were being held today — which party would receive your first preference?” 

This face-to-face Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the weekends of November 15/16 & 22/23, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 1,778 electors.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:           Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

During the polling period:

• 400 ABC Learning childcare centres threatened with closure
  The union representing 12,000 ABC Learning staff has met receivers to ensure as many ABC Learning childcare centres as possible stay open.

• Australia’s Governor-General makes emotional visit to Fromelles mass grave
  Governor-General Quentin Bryce has made an emotional visit to a mass grave holding the remains of Australian and British soldiers killed at Fromelles in northern France in 1916.

• Car industry welcomes Rudd Government rescue package
  Australia's car industry has welcomed the Federal Government's $6.2 billion investment plan to take the sector to 2020.

• Rudd's economic measures will 'wage war on unemployment'
  Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has described a series of measures to tackle a slowing economy as the "Government's war on unemployment".

• G20 World leaders, including Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, agree six-point plan
  Leaders from the 20 biggest economic powers, including Australia's Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, have agreed to a six-point plan for tackling slumping economic activity with stepped-up cooperation.

• Obama vows to exit Iraq, rebuild US 'moral stature'
  President-elect Barack Obama vowed to pull troops out of Iraq, crush Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and shut down the Guantanamo Bay camp as part of a dramatic foreign policy break with George W Bush

• $300m in 3 months: PM details infrastructure plan
  The Federal Government has made $300 million of new infrastructure spending for local governments conditional on it being spent by September next year.

• Oil prices have slumped to near $US50 a barrel — down nearly $US100 in the last 4 months

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION SUMMARY - HOUSE OF REPS (%)

Note: National Party results are in brackets

# Sample Sizes under 50 should be treated with caution

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

* The Family First Party were included as an option on Federal Voting Intention from October 30, 2004

TWO-PARTY PREFERRED VOTE (%)

** Phone Poll

^ 1998 Federal election results have been updated to include results from the electorate of Newcastle supplementary election. The L-NP did not have a candidate contesting the electorate of Newcastle

THINK WILL WIN

Respondents were asked: "Regardless of who you'd like to win, who to you THINK will win the next Federal election - the Liberal-National Coalition or the Labor Party?"

AUSTRALIA HEADING IN “RIGHT” OR “WRONG” DIRECTION

Electors were asked: “Generally speaking, do you feel that things in Australia are heading in the right direction or would you say things are seriously heading in the wrong direction?”

Phone: Telephone survey method; Face: Face-to-face survey method.

* Roy Morgan GCR = Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating (100 plus the difference between the percentage of people who say the country is “going in the right direction” and the percentage who say the country is “going in seriously the wrong direction”)

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

The Morgan Poll was the most accurate of all polling companies at the 2007 Federal election for both primary vote and two-party preferred predictions (sample 2,115 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Queensland election with a reduced majority (sample 604 electors).

The Morgan Poll accurately predicted that the ALP would win the 2006 Victorian election with a reduced majority (sample 956 electors).  The Morgan Poll was also the most accurate on the primary vote of the major parties for the Victorian election.

Note: The recent discussion on Possum Pollytics regarding Morgan and Newspoll is well worth reading.

The following included comment says it all: “I find it interesting that for the only poll in the last five years for which there is any ‘real’ figure with which to compare, i.e. the polls immediately before the 2004 election, Morgan (45.5%) was closer to the actual Coalition Primary (46.7%) than Newspoll (45%) or Nielsen (49%), and Morgan (38.5%) was also closer to the ALP actual primary (37.6%) than Newspoll (39%), and only marginally further away than Nielsen (37%).  Since we have no idea of how far away the ongoing polls are from ‘reality’ (whatever that means), surely we should just go with what we know, that in the most recent testable case, Morgan was better at forecasting the actual primary vote than Newspoll.  On what possible basis should we decide that the Newspoll or Nielsen primary vote estimate is ‘better’ than Morgan’s.”

View Federal Voting Intention Trend

The Roy Morgan Research Centre conducts the Morgan Poll in Australia and New Zealand and is the Gallup International Association Member

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

Finding No. 4339 is taken from Computer Report No. 2284

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