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A Morgan Gallup Poll conducted on the Melbourne City Council elections by Roy Morgan prior to campaigning for the MCC Election showed Robert Doyle as the clear favourite to be elected. The results of the MCC election show that the special Morgan Gallup Poll correctly predicted Robert Doyle’s Election as Melbourne’s new Lord Mayor.

MCC Election results show Robert Doyle secured 26.1% of first preference votes in the MCC election, well ahead of second-placed Greens candidate, Adam Bandt (15.1%). ALP candidate Peter McMullin (12.5%) and former Councillors Catherine Ng (10.9%) and Gary Singer (10.5%) all received a substantial share of first preference votes.

* Other candidates for the role of Lord Mayor of Melbourne are Joseph Toscano, Bob Crawford & Shelley Roberts.

Gary Morgan says:

“Firstly, I wish to extend to Robert Doyle my personal congratulations for his victory in the Melbourne City Council election. As Melbourne’s new Lord Mayor I look forward to working with Robert Doyle and the other 8 Councillors to improve Melbourne and ensure it remains the World’s most liveable city in the 21st Century.

“As shown by the special Morgan Gallup Poll in October Robert Doyle was the clear favourite to be elected from the outset.

“Doyle’s name recognition carried him over the line despite Doyle’s non-attendance at many campaign related events. A low-profile campaign by Doyle saw his primary vote drop from 38.7% to 26.1%, a drop of 12.6% - but key preference deals with ALP candidates Peter McMullin and Will Fowles were enough to secure the Mayoral robes for Doyle.

“The incredible spending spree by Peter McMullin and Will Fowles, estimated to be around $800,000 between them, saw their vote increase substantially during the campaign. McMullin’s primary vote increased by 10% to 12.5% and Fowles by 6.1% to 8.6%.

“Once again, the Greens vote did not match their pre-election polling, with Greens Candidate Adam Bandt’s primary vote dropping 8.7% from 23.8% in late October to a final result of 15.1%.

“The primary vote figures for Bandt indicate that the Greens Party still has problems ‘pulling people across the line’ on election day. Pre-election polling shows electors often express a willingness to vote for the Greens, but because the Greens exclude themselves from serious debate on ‘ financial, business and economic policies’ many moderate voters do not vote Green.

“Incumbent Councillor Catherine Ng (polling 10.9%, down 3.6%), despite some ‘canny’ preference deals, fell short because her primary vote numbers fell away during the campaign as Peter McMullin’s supporters raised the issue of her non-attendance at many Melbourne City Council meetings.”

The special Morgan Gallup telephone on all Melbourne City Council Lord Mayor candidates was conducted on October 29-30, 2008, with a representative sample of 330 electors, both residents and business, in the City of Melbourne.

The survey was conducted for concerned residents of the City of Melbourne including residents groups in Carlton and Docklands.

The survey was conducted under the “Gallup Poll” name to ensure the name ‘Morgan’ — in the Morgan Poll — did not influence respondents. (Roy Morgan Research is the Australian and New Zealand Member of Gallup International.)

For further information:

Gary Morgan:            Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:        Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
500	±4.5	±3.9	±2.7	±1.9
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

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