Australian Real Unemployment rises for the 2nd straight month
To 6.4% - not 4.3% as ABS would have us believe
13.8% (1.5 million) Australian workers are ‘underemployed’ or unemployed
| Finding No. 4342 -
This Special Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘underemployed’* is based on weekly interviews covering January 2007 – November 2008 and in total 101,227 Australians aged 14 and over face-to-face, including 4,319 interviews in October 2008 and 4,267 interviews in November 2008. *The ‘underemployed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.):
December 08, 2008 |
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The Roy Morgan November 2008 unemployment estimate was 696,000 (6.4%), up 71,000 on October 2008 and 112,000 higher than the September 2008 Quarter estimate of 584,000 (5.3%).
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The November 2008 Roy Morgan unemployed and ‘underemployed’* estimate was 1,504,000 (13.8%) up 19,000 on October 2008, and 185,000 higher than the September 2008 Quarter.
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The Roy Morgan November 2008 unemployed and ‘underemployed’* estimate of 1,504,000 is the highest since the January—March 2007 estimate of 1,500,000. (Immediately following the introduction of the Howard Government’s ‘Work Choices’.)
|
Roy Morgan Unemployed and Underemployed Estimate |
|
2007 |
Unemployed or ‘Underemployed’*
Number % |
Unemployed
Number % |
‘Underemployed’*
Number % |
|
Jan—Mar 2007 |
1,500,000 14.3 |
757,000 7.2 |
743,000 7.1 |
|
Apr—June 2007 |
1,275,000 11.9 |
596,000 5.6 |
679,000 6.3 |
|
July—Sep 2007 |
1,333,000 12.5 |
614,000 5.8 |
719,000 6.7 |
|
Oct—Dec 2007 |
1,406,000 13.2 |
647,000 6.1 |
759,000 7.1 |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
Jan—Mar 2008 |
1,382,000 12.9 |
646,000 6.0 |
736,000 6.9 |
|
Apr—June 2008 |
1,383,000 12.9 |
632,000 5.9 |
751,000 7.0 |
|
July—Sep 2008 |
1,319,000 12.0 |
584,000 5.3 |
735,000 6.7 |
|
October 2008 |
1,485,000 13.5 |
625,000 5.7 |
860,000 7.8 |
|
November 2008 |
1,504.000 13.8 |
696,000 6.4 |
808,000 7.4 | # The revised Howard Government ‘Work Choices’ Legislation was implemented in late 2006, just prior to the time period when the survey began in January 2007.
Gary Morgan says:
“Exclusive Roy Morgan figures show that Australia’s unemployed and ‘underemployed,’ which had come down after the introduction of the Howard Government’s WorkChoices Legislation — and reached a low of 1.275 million in mid-2007, has started to rise again and is now back to more than 1.5 million for November 2008.
“The “Global Financial Crisis” is everyday presenting new problems and challenges for the Rudd Government. Rupert Murdoch’s comments in his sixth Boyer Lecture that if Australia does not ‘observe and embrace change’ the ‘consequences will probably not be dire’, is I believe misguided.
"Australia is in 'dire straits' now; 13.8% of Australian workers already unemployed or ‘underemployed’* can’t be accepted by anyone.
“Although the October ABS Unemployment estimate of 4.3% was unchanged despite massive sackings across the finance, automotive and media industries, the latest Roy Morgan unemployment and ‘underemployment’* data shows unemployment and ‘underemployment’* are already moving up and are at high levels.
“It is well known that those who really suffer in a recession are those who lose their jobs — the unemployed — or those who are unable to get enough work — the ‘underemployed’*
“The Rudd Government must take the right policy actions that will give Australia the best protection possible from the global recession or run the risk of further increasing job losses in Australia.
“The Government’s proposed massive infrastructure spending and handouts to pensioners and welfare recipients do not address the underlying problem of unemployment and therefore cannot provide a lasting stimulus to the Australian economy.
“The Rudd Government needs to target Australia’s unemployed and ‘underemployed’* including such measures as reducing the taxation burden on business; and revisiting some of the work practices that ‘enshrine’ over-award payments and protected Public Service jobs for those lucky enough to have them but do nothing to create more employment opportunities — more jobs and more work for those who want to work ‘more hours.’
“On a positive note the Roy Morgan ‘underemployed’* statistics show Australia has a ‘hidden resource’ - a vast ‘army of workers’ under-utilised and overlooked.
“In Australia, this issue is well known among those who follow real measures of unemployment and the economy, and articulated clearly in Michele Levine’s paper ‘The Fantasy of Full Employment’ presented at the National Press Club, ACT on March 14, 2008.”
This Special Roy Morgan survey on Australia’s unemployment and ‘underemployed’* is based on weekly interviews covering January 2007 — November 2008 and in total 101,227 Australians aged 14 and over face-to-face, including 4,319 interviews in October 2008 and 4,267 interviews in November 2008.
*The ‘underemployed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment survey.)
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Monthly Unemployment Average (Roy Morgan v ABS)
Quarterly Unemployment Average (Roy Morgan v ABS)
The Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate is obtained by surveying an Australia-wide cross section by face-to-face interviews.
An unemployed person is classified as part of the labour force if they are looking for work, no matter when.
The results are not seasonally adjusted and provide an accurate measure of monthly unemployment estimates in Australia.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are obtained by mostly telephone interviews.
Households selected for the ABS Survey are interviewed each month for eight months, with one-eighth of the sample being replaced each month.
The first interview is conducted face-to-face. Subsequent interviews are then conducted by telephone.
The ABS classifies an unemployed person as part of the labour force only if, when surveyed, they have been actively
looking for work in the four weeks up to the end of the reference week and if they were available for work in the reference week.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are also seasonally adjusted.
For these reasons the Australian Bureau of Statistics Unemployment estimates are different from the Roy Morgan Unemployment estimate.
Gary Morgan's concerns regarding the ABS Unemployment estimate is clearly outlined in his letter to the Australian Financial Review, which was not published!
www.roymorgan.com/news/papers/2003/20030801
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
5,000 |
±1.4 |
±1.2 |
±0.8 |
±0.6 |
|
100,000 |
±0.3 |
±0.3 |
±0.2 |
±0.1 |
|
