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Now 69% (up 6.5% since October 15/16, 2008) of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister, 20% (down 4% since October 15/16, 2008) prefer Malcolm Turnbull while 11% (down 2.5%) are undecided or prefer someone else. This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted over the last 2 nights (December 17/18, 2008).

This Morgan Poll also finds 68% (up 4% since October 15/16) of electors approve of the way Kevin Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister, 21% (down 2%) disapprove and 11% (down 2%) are undecided.

Electors’ approval of Malcolm Turnbull has retreated after an early increase, now 42% (down 13% since October 15/16) of electors approve of Turnbull, while 37.5% (up 13.5%) of Australians disapprove and 20.5% (down 0.5%) are still undecided about Turnbull’s handling of the job as Opposition Leader.

Analysis by voting intention shows that of ALP supporters 91% (up 3% since October 15/16) approve of the way Mr Rudd is handling his job, only 3.5% (down 2%) disapprove and 5.5% (down 1%) are undecided.

In comparison, of L-NP supporters 52% (down 18.5% since October 15/16) approve of the way Mr Turnbull is handling his job, 26% (up 11.5%) disapprove and 22% (up 7%) are undecided.

Better Prime Minister — Rudd v Opposition Leader

# Malcolm Turnbull was elected as the leader of the Federal Liberal Party on September 16, 2008;

this Special Morgan Poll was taken with Rudd v Turnbull before Turnbull became Leader of the Opposition.

Gary Morgan says:

“Kevin Rudd’s popularity amongst Australian electors has soared in the face of the ‘Global Financial Crisis.’ The Crisis has presented many challenges to the Rudd Government and thus far its handling of these challenges has resulted in a strong rise in Kevin Rudd’s approval rating, now at 68% — the highest since February 2008.

“The national spotlight has been on the Rudd Government during this period and this has not been a good time for Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull. After initial enthusiasm for Turnbull, his disapproval ratings have risen strongly — now at 37.5% (up 13.5%).

“To be an effective Opposition Leader in 2009 and beyond Turnbull must provide a real vision for what the Liberal Party stands for and unite the Liberal Party behind that vision. Without the strong support of his Parliamentary colleagues, Turnbull has little chance of overturning Kevin Rudd’s lead and being electable at the next election — due in 2010.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of December 17/18, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 561 electors.

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Better Prime Minister: Rudd v Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Thinking of Mr. Rudd and Mr. Turnbull.  In your opinion, who would make the better Prime Minister — Mr. Rudd or Mr. Turnbull?”

	Brendan Nelson  as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	77	63	55	62.5	69	93.5	30	89.5	75	69.5
Turnbull	9	24	30	24	20	3.5	53	4	25	7
Rudd Lead	68	39	25	38.5	49	90	-23	85.5	50	62.5
Other / Neither	14	13	15	13.5	11	3	17	6.5	0	23.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Brendan Nelson  as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader			Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	77	63	55	62.5	69	70	67.5	71.5	70.5	72.5	65
Turnbull	9	24	30	24	20	21.5	18	20.5	17.5	17	22.5
Rudd Lead	68	39	25	38.5	49	48.5	49.5	51	53	55.5	42.5
Other / Neither	14	13	15	13.5	11	8.5	14.5	8	12	10.5	12.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Approval of Leaders — Kevin Rudd v Malcolm Turnbull

Prime Minister: Kevin Rudd

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Rudd is handling his job as Prime Minister?”

	Prime Minister Howard			Prime Minister Rudd
	Jan. 4-7, 2007	May 16/17, 2007	Aug. 21/22, 2007	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	56	53	44	71	56	55	64	68
Disapprove	39	42	51	14	33	31	23	21
Approve - Disapprove	17	11	-7	57	23	24	41	47
Other / Can’t say	5	5	5	15	11	14	13	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	68	91	34	84.5	100	58.5
Disapprove	21	3.5	48	13.5	0	19.5
Approve - Disapprove	47	87.5	-14	71	100	39
Other / Can’t say	11	5.5	18	2	0	22
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	68	71	65.5	71.5	69.5	65	68.5
Disapprove	21	19	22	13	18.5	22	22.5
Approve - Disapprove	47	52	43.5	58.5	51	43	46
Other / Can’t say	11	10	12.5	15.5	12	13	9
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

Opposition Leader: Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents were asked: “Do you APPROVE or DISAPPROVE of the way Mr. Turnbull is handling his job as Leader of the Opposition?”

	Kevin Rudd  as Opposition Leader			Brendan Nelson  as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader
	Jan. 4-7, 2007	May 16/17, 2007	Aug. 21/22, 2007	Feb. 20/21, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Sep. 24/25, 2008	Oct. 15/16, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	64	72	74	32	38	43	55	42
Disapprove	11	17	19	42	44	24	24	37.5
Approve - Disapprove	53	55	55	-10	-6	19	31	4.5
Other / Can’t say	25	11	7	26	18	33	21	20.5
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	42	37	52	38	54	41
Disapprove	37.5	44.5	26	52	23	33
Approve - Disapprove	4.5	-6.5	26	-14	31	8
Other / Can’t say	20.5	18.5	22	10	23	26
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Electors 18+	Analysis by Sex & Age
	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Approve	42	43	41	51	40.5	39.5	42
Disapprove	37.5	39	36	31.5	31	41	39
Approve - Disapprove	4.5	4	5	19.5	9.5	-1.5	3
Other / Can’t say	20.5	18	23	17.5	28.5	19.5	19
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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