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 A special telephone Morgan Poll over the last two nights (December 17/18, 2008) finds:

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has a substantial lead as preferred ALP Leader over Deputy Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Rudd is preferred as ALP Leader by 60% (up 11% since September 10/11, 2008) of electors well ahead of Gillard (19%, down 2%). No other member of the ALP rates above 3%.

Amongst ALP supporters Kevin Rudd is even more strongly preferred as ALP Leader with 74% of ALP supporters preferring Rudd as ALP Leader ahead of Julia Gillard (19%). Of other contenders, only Bill Shorten (2%) has more than 1% support.

Current Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull (28%, up 8% since September 10/11, 2008) and former Treasurer Peter Costello (28%, down 3%) are equally preferred as Liberal Party Leader.

Other Liberal Party members supported by a strong proportion of Australian electors are Joe Hockey (12%, up 1% since September 10/11, 2008), Brendan Nelson (7%, down 3%), Julie Bishop (7%, down 1%) and Tony Abbott (6%, down 1%).

However, Peter Costello is still the preferred Liberal leader amongst L-NP supporters. Costello 40% cf. Turnbull 28%. Supporters of other parties though prefer Turnbull as the Liberal Party leader with ALP supporters preferring Turnbull (26% cf. 25%) and Greens supporters strongly preferring Turnbull (36% cf. 18%).

If Prime Minister Rudd were to resign for any reason, Deputy PM Julia Gillard is clearly preferred as ALP Leader (50%, up 6%). Gillard’s support among ALP voters (61%) is even stronger. Wayne Swan (13%, up 1%) is the next best preferred leader of the ALP, ahead of Stephen Smith (6%, down 2%), Lindsay Tanner (6%, unchanged), Jenny Macklin (4%, down 1%) and Bill Shorten (2%, down 3%).

If Mr Turnbull were to resign as Opposition Leader tomorrow, Mr Costello (37%, up 4%) is clearly preferred as the Liberal to replace him, ahead of Joe Hockey (18%, up 6%), Julie Bishop (11%, up 1%), Brendan Nelson (10%) and Tony Abbott (7%, down 1%).

Overall, Kevin Rudd is clearly preferred as Australia’s Prime Minister: 69% (up 6.5% since October 15/16, 2008) of electors say that Mr Rudd would be a better PM than Mr Turnbull (20%, down 4%) while 11% (down 2.5%) can’t say or chose someone else. The full results of this Special Preferred Prime Minister Morgan Poll are available here.

Gary Morgan says: 

“A large majority of Australian electors prefer Kevin Rudd as well as substantial majorities in each major demographic measured. Rudd’s strong leadership in dealing with the “Global Financial Crisis” has cemented his leadership well ahead of any potential ALP leadership aspirant.

“However, his opponent Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull may face Liberal leadership speculation in 2009 as he is only level as the preferred Liberal Party Leader with former Treasurer Peter Costello, and, amongst Liberal and National Party supporters, is well behind the man once known as ‘Australia’s next Prime Minister.’

“Malcolm Turnbull needs to convey to the electorate how the Liberals can lead Australia through these worldwide difficult economic times or he will fail to make a dent in Kevin Rudd’s leadership — preferred over Turnbull 69% cf. 20% in the latest Morgan Poll on Better Prime Minister.”

This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted on the evenings of December 17/18, 2008, with an Australia-wide cross section of 561 electors.

Preferred Labor Leader

Respondents were then asked: “If you were a Labor Party voter and helping to choose the Labor leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	49	60	74	44	48	23	62
Gillard	15	21	19	19	15	33	52	27
Smith	2	4	3	1	9	-	-	4
Swan	2	3	3	1	6	3	25	-
Shorten	2	3	1	2	1	1	-	-
Tanner	2	3	3	1	8	4	-	-
Macklin	1	3	2	1	4	4	-	5
Someone else	1	2	1	*	1	-	-	-
Can’t say	9	12	8	1	12	7	-	2
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	49	60	63	56	64	58	58	61
Gillard	15	21	19	16	22	16	21	22	17
Smith	2	4	3	3	4	-	1	3	5
Swan	2	3	3	4	2	9	1	3	3
Shorten	2	3	1	2	1	-	4	*	1
Tanner	2	3	3	4	3	2	3	3	4
Macklin	1	3	2	2	3	2	2	2	2
Someone else	1	1	1	*	*	-	-	1	*
Can’t say	9	13	8	6	9	7	10	8	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

Preferred Labor Leader other than Kevin Rudd

Respondents who preferred Kevin Rudd as ALP leader were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Labor leader for the next Federal Election, who whould you prefer out of: Julia Gillard, Wayne Swan, Stephen Smith, Bill Shorten, Jenny Macklin or Lindsay Tanner?"

The answers were added to those preferred for Labor Leader from the previous question to show the preferred leaders other than Kevin Rudd.

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind / Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Gillard	50	44	50	61	33	58	52	66
Swan	8	12	13	12	17	9	25	10
Smith	5	8	6	3	13	1	-	4
Tanner	6	6	6	5	9	6	-	4
Shorten	5	5	2	4	1	3	-	-
Macklin	5	5	4	4	4	6	-	5
Someone else	1	2	1	2	1	2	-	4
Can’t say	20	18	18	9	22	15	23	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

	Electors 18+			Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Rudd	66	49	60	63	56	64	58	58	61
Gillard	15	21	19	16	22	16	21	22	17
Smith	2	4	3	3	4	-	1	3	5
Swan	2	3	3	4	2	9	1	3	3
Shorten	2	3	1	2	1	-	4	*	1
Tanner	2	3	3	4	3	2	3	3	4
Macklin	1	3	2	2	3	2	2	2	2
Someone else	1	1	1	*	*	-	-	1	*
Can’t say	9	13	8	6	9	7	10	8	7
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

* Less than 0.5%

Preferred Coalition Leader

Respondents were asked: “If you were a Liberal or National Party voter and helping to choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer?”

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First#	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	18	31	28	25	40	18	23	14
Turnbull	24	20	28	26	28	36	25	24
Nelson	9	10	7	9	6	5	-	14
Hockey	13	11	12	12	14	12	-	18
Bishop	7	8	7	9	2	15	29	5
Abbott	6	7	6	6	5	2	-	11
Robb	1	1	*	*	1	-	-	-
Someone else	2	1	*	1	-	-	-	4
Cant’ say	11	11	12	12	4	12	23	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution;

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	18	31	28	28	29	27	26	31	27
Turnbull	24	20	28	32	24	24	27	25	30
Nelson	9	10	7	7	8	15	7	6	7
Hockey	13	11	12	10	14	4	8	15	15
Bishop	7	8	7	7	8	10	14	7	5
Abbott	6	7	6	8	4	5	7	7	5
Robb	1	1	*	*	*	2	-	-	*
Someone else	2	1	*	1	*	-	-	1	*
Cant’ say	11	11	12	7	13	13	11	8	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Malcolm Turnbull

Respondents who preferred Malcolm Turnbull were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Peter Costello, Brendan Nelson, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Malcolm Turnbull.

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader*		Malcolm Turnbull as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	19	33	37	32	50	24	48	18
Turnbull*	26	22	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson*	na	na	10	11	8	13	-	23
Hockey	14	12	18	18	18	23	-	28
Bishop	8	10	11	13	6	18	29	5
Abbott	7	8	7	7	6	3	-	11
Robb	2	2	2	1	4	2	-	-
Someone else	1	1	1	1	-	-	-	4
Cant’ say	12	12	14	17	8	17	23	11
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution; *For these two Morgan Polls the question asked excluded then Opposition Leader Dr. Brendan Nelson; na = not applicable

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader*		Malcolm Turnbull  as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Feb. 21/22, 2008	Sep. 10/11, 2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Costello	19	33	37	38	35	35	34	37	38
Turnbull*	26	22	na	na	na	na	na	na	na
Nelson*	na	na	10	10	10	17	9	8	11
Hockey	14	12	18	19	17	9	17	20	19
Bishop	8	10	11	10	11	12	15	12	7
Abbott	7	8	7	8	5	11	7	7	5
Robb	2	2	2	3	1	4	2	-	3
Someone else	1	1	1	1	*	-	-	1	1
Cant’ say	12	12	14	11	21	12	16	15	16
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

*For these two Morgan Polls the question asked excluded then Opposition Leader Dr. Brendan Nelson; na = not applicable

Preferred Coalition Leader other than Peter Costello

Respondents who preferred Peter Costello were then asked:

“Still thinking about helping choose the Coalition leader for the next Federal election, who would you prefer out of: Brendan Nelson, Malcolm Turnbull, Julie Bishop, Joe Hockey, Tony Abbott, Andrew Robb?”

The answers were added to those preferred Coalition Leader from the previous question to show preferred leaders other than Peter Costello.

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader	Malcolm Turnbull  as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Federal Voting Intention
	Sep. 10/11,  2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	ALP	L-NP	The Greens#	Family First #	Ind/ Other#
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Nelson	15	9	11	7	5	-	18
Turnbull	28	35	31	41	43	25	33
Hockey	16	18	18	22	13	23	19
Bishop	12	12	13	8	20	29	5
Abbott	12	9	9	11	4	-	11
Robb	2	2	3	2	-	-	-
Someone else	1	1	2	-	2	-	4
Cant’ say	14	14	13	9	13	23	10
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

# Sample sizes less than 50 should be treated with caution

	Brendan Nelson as Opposition Leader	Malcolm Turnbull  as Opposition Leader	Analysis by Sex and Age
	Sep. 10/11,   2008	Dec. 17/18, 2008	Men	Women	18-24	25-34	35-49	50+
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
Nelson	15	9	8	11	18	8	8	9
Turnbull	28	35	38	32	30	34	31	40
Hockey	16	18	17	20	8	11	21	22
Bishop	12	12	10	13	13	17	12	8
Abbott	12	9	13	6	11	14	11	6
Robb	2	2	3	1	2	-	3	3
Someone else	1	1	1	1	-	1	3	*
Cant’ say	14	14	10	16	18	15	11	12
Total	100	100	100	100	100	100	100	100

For further information:

Gary Morgan:      Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:    Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No Other public opinion poll taken in Australia has this qualification.

© 2010 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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