New Zealand Consumer Confidence Drops Sharply to 106.6 Down 10.2 Pts to 22 Month Low
| Article No. 731 -
March 20, 2008 |
To register to directly receive future Roy Morgan Polls and other Roy Morgan Press Releases by email, please register here.
The mid March Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating dropped sharply to 106.6 — down 10.2 points, 8.7 points below the average for 2008 of 115.3 and 15.9 points below the March average of 122.5. The New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating has dropped to a 22 month low as all major indicators tracked by Roy Morgan have dropped significantly from the previous survey result.
The largest drops were recorded in relation to economic and financial conditions over the next 12 months as New Zealanders expecting good times economically for New Zealand over the next 12 months dropped to 30% (down 7%), a 20-month low, while those expecting bad times is 47% (up 11%), a 20-month high.
In terms of their personal financial situation, 47% (down 10%) of New Zealanders expect to be better off financially in 12 months time, the equal-lowest level since June 2004. 22% (up 5%) of New Zealanders expect to be worse off in 12 months time, the highest reading for over 18 months.
Looking further ahead, New Zealander’s views on the economic future for New Zealand over the next 5 years have also deteriorated with 41% (down 2%) of New Zealanders expecting good times economically for New Zealand over the next 5 years compared to 30% (up 6%) expecting bad times.
The number of New Zealanders saying now is a good time to buy major household items dropped for the second poll in a row to 46% (down 3%) while those saying now is a bad time to buy is at a record high of 33% (up 1%).
When thinking of whether their family was better off financially compared to the same time last year, 36% (down 4%) thought they were better off, while 35% (unchanged) thought they were worse off compared to a year ago. Both of these readings are at record low results since the survey started.
Gary Morgan says:
“New Zealanders have lost confidence about the economic conditions in the country. Worries about the next 12 months have risen significantly and the record low results for New Zealanders saying now is a good time to buy must be a major concern to retailers in New Zealand. At the same time the Opposition National Party has maintained its strong lead in the latest New Zealand Morgan Poll.
“The high interest rate policies of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, combined with the uncertainty about the health of the American economy have dragged down New Zealand Consumer Confidence to its lowest level since May 2006, which at 104.8 was a record low Consumer Confidence result for New Zealand.
“The Easter holidays offer some respite from all the bad news, and a chance for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to consider the impact their high interest rate policy is having. The RBNZ must be careful not to put New Zealanders into a recession they don’t need to have.”
This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from March 3-15, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,002 people aged 14 and over.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
|
Percentage Estimate |
|
Sample Size |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
ROY MORGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RATING
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yearly |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct* |
Nov |
Dec |
Average |
|
2004 |
135.7 |
131.7 |
130.2 |
133.5 |
129.8 |
130 |
134.4 |
132.9 |
133.9 |
135.4 |
135 |
136.1 |
133.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2005 |
140.9 |
139.1 |
136 |
125.2 |
125.5 |
128 |
127.7 |
125.6 |
126.2 |
121.4 |
121.3 |
121.4 |
119.8 |
121.1 |
117.5 |
126.4 |
|
|
Beg Jan |
Mid Jan |
Beg Feb |
Mid Feb |
Beg Mar |
Mid Mar |
Beg Apr |
Mid Apr |
Beg May |
Mid May |
Beg Jun |
Mid Jun |
Beg
Jul |
Mid
Jul |
Beg Aug |
Mid Aug |
Beg Sep |
Mid
Sep |
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2006 |
118.3 |
123 |
111 |
115 |
115.1 |
116.5 |
115.7 |
116.7 |
104.8 |
112.5 |
110.8 |
114 |
115.4 |
118.8 |
112.1 |
113.3 |
115.5 |
123.8 |
123.4 |
124.8 |
124.0 |
123.3 |
128.2 |
127.8 |
117.7 |
|
2007 |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
125.1 |
| 2008 |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
115.3 |
|
Monthly Average |
129.3 |
124.5 |
122.5 |
124.7 |
119.4 |
120.8 |
123.1 |
121.5 |
123.7 |
124.3 |
123.9 |
126.3 |
123.6 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005
^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:
| |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,930 |
1,033 |
1,016 |
983 |
1,002 |
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
44 |
46 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
29 |
28 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
15 |
18 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
^ |
57 |
58 |
56 |
57 |
47 |
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
19 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
|
|
Question 2 difference |
^ |
38 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
25 |
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
^ |
37 |
36 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
|
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
32 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
47 |
|
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
5 |
-2 |
-8 |
1 |
-17 |
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
40 |
43 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
|
| |
Bad times |
^ |
22 |
25 |
26 |
24 |
30 |
|
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
18 |
18 |
14 |
19 |
11 |
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
|
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
57 |
46 |
51 |
49 |
46 |
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
28 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
|
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
29 |
14 |
20 |
17 |
12 |
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,956 |
967 |
990 |
1,080 |
1,092 |
938 |
1,084 |
1,072 |
1,195 |
1,040 |
1,001 |
1,054 |
1,077 |
1,003 |
1,036 |
980 |
1,023 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
41 |
40 |
44 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
37 |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
21 |
23 |
22 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
23 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
20 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
7 |
16 |
8 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
| |
Better off |
^ |
58 |
56 |
56 |
55 |
59 |
57 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
50 |
50 |
48 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
51 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
12 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
|
Question 2 difference |
|
^ |
46 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
46 |
42 |
37 |
34 |
36 |
33 |
31 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
33 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good Times |
^ |
52 |
51 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
45 |
38 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
37 |
33 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
18 |
20 |
23 |
28 |
26 |
26 |
28 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
37 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
34 |
31 |
27 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
-4 |
0 |
7 |
9 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
52 |
53 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
54 |
47 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
45 |
46 |
44 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
47 |
| |
Bad times |
^ |
17 |
17 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
35 |
36 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
34 |
23 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
66 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
57 |
61 |
58 |
61 |
59 |
57 |
58 |
55 |
60 |
61 |
64 |
56 |
50 |
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
17 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
28 |
32 |
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
49 |
45 |
48 |
44 |
35 |
40 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
29 |
38 |
39 |
42 |
28 |
18 |
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
Interviews |
|
1,010 |
985 |
952 |
974 |
958 |
1,028 |
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
37 |
43 |
38 |
37 |
48 |
49 |
|
| |
Worse off |
29 |
24 |
27 |
29 |
28 |
25 |
|
|
Question 1 difference |
8 |
19 |
11 |
8 |
20 |
24 |
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
48 |
54 |
49 |
52 |
58 |
59 |
|
| |
Worse off |
21 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Question 2 difference |
|
27 |
38 |
33 |
37 |
42 |
43 |
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
37 |
45 |
40 |
40 |
43 |
43 |
|
| |
Bad Times |
36 |
26 |
29 |
27 |
27 |
29 |
|
|
Question 3 difference |
1 |
19 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand
as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or
so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
46 |
48 |
44 |
44 |
50 |
45 |
|
| |
Bad times |
24 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
|
|
Question 4 difference |
22 |
29 |
25 |
23 |
28 |
24 |
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
|
| |
Good time to buy |
52 |
57 |
56 |
51 |
55 |
54 |
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
30 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
Question 5 difference |
22 |
35 |
33 |
24 |
28 |
26 |
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
|
*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.
No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.
|
