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Australian Confidence down since January but still well ahead of American Confidence
To register to directly receive future Roy Morgan Polls and other Roy Morgan Press Releases by email, please register here. Using the ABC News Consumer Confidence Index Australian Confidence has dropped significantly in the past 2 months as the global credit crunch and the well-documented dangers confronting the local economy has seen concerns about the local economy mount. Despite this Australian Consumer Confidence remains well ahead of American Consumer Confidence a special Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence telephone survey conducted in conjunction with ABC America in the USA finds. Australian Consumer Confidence measured by Roy Morgan using the US ABC News Consumer Comfort Index (on a scale of -100 to 100) is now 12 — down 15pts since January 30/31. On the same measure, Consumer Confidence in America is now -34. (Down 7 points from -27 in late January)
In Australia, all indicators of Consumer Confidence have dropped since January. 63% of Australians, (up 10%), say now is either not a good time or a poor time to buy things compared to only 37% (down 10%) who say now is an excellent or good time to buy things. Americans are even more pessimistic, with only 25% (down 3%) of Americans saying now is a good or excellent time to buy things compared to nearly three-quarters of Americans, 75% (up 3%), who say now is not a good time or a poor time to buy things. Australians are more positive when thinking of the state of Australia’s economy overall. 65% of Australians (down 10%) describe Australia’s economy as being in excellent or good shape, compared to 35% (up 10%) who describe it as not good or poor. This is a stark contrast with Americans, of whom only 17% (down 10%) describe the American economy as being in excellent or good shape, compared to a large 83% (up 10%) who say it is in a not good or poor shape. When thinking of their personal finances, Americans are, perhaps surprisingly, more positive than 3 months ago. 57% (up 3%) of Americans, compared to 66% (down 3%) of Australians, describe their personal finances as being excellent or good. This is the only indicator on which Americans are more positive than negative, yet they are still well behind their counterparts in Australia. Gary Morgan says:
Consumer Confidence Indicators in Australia & USA
Australia’s economy — 65% of Australians rate the Australian economy as excellent or good, which is down 10% from late January. In contrast, only 35% rate the Australian economy as not good or poor.
America’s Economy — Only 17% of Americans rate the American economy as excellent or good, which is down 10% from late January. In contrast, over four-fifths of Americans, 83% (up 10%), rate the American economy as not good or poor.
Personal finances (Australia) — 66% of Australians rate their personal finances as excellent or good, down 3% on late January, while there are 34% of Australians that rate their personal finances as not good or poor.
Personal finances (USA) — 57% (up 3%) of Americans rate their personal finances as excellent or good, the only measure that is rated positively by a majority of Americans, while there are 43% of Americans that rate their personal finances as not good or poor.
Good time to buy things (Australia) — Only 37% of Australians say now is a good time to buy things, which is down 10% since late January. This is the only reading on which a majority of Australians have a negative viewpoint with 63% (up 10%), of Australians saying now is not good or a poor time to buy things.
Good time to buy things (USA) — 25% (down 3%) of Americans say now is a good time to buy things. In contrast, 75% of Americans say now is not good or a poor time to buy things.
Australian Consumer Confidence Indicator* - The drops in all 3 measures have led to a decline in the Australian CCI from a January level of +27 to that measured in early April of just +12. This low level is mainly driven by the low number of Australians believing now is an excellent or good time to buy things.
American Consumer Confidence Indicator*- The large drop in the ratings given by Americans of the state of their economy is the reason for the decline in the American CCI since January. That 20pt increase in negative sentiment (from -46 to -66) has driven a 6pt decline in the overall measure of American CCI. The overall measure has declined over the past 3 months from -27 to -34.
This special Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Survey is based on 611 telephone interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over on April 1-2, 2008. For further information: Gary Morgan: Office + 61 3 9224 5213 Mobile + 61 411 129 094 Michele Levine: Office + 61 3 9224 5215 Mobile + 61 411 129 093
Margin of Error The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
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