New Zealand Consumer Confidence Continues Downward Plunge to Record Low 99.7 (Down 26.6pts in 2008)
| Article No. 738 -
April 11, 2008 |
To register to directly receive future Roy Morgan Polls and other Roy Morgan Press Releases by email, please register here.
The early April Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating has continued its freefall, down again to a record low — 99.7. This is down 6.9 points from mid-March and is 13 points below the average for 2008 of 112.7 and 21.4 points below the April average of 121.1. The New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating has suffered a record steep decline during 2008, dropping 26.6pts in only 3 ½ months.
In the more than 4 year history of this index, New Zealand Consumer Confidence has never suffered such a rapid decline. This is the also the first time in the history of the index that New Zealand Consumer Confidence has dropped below 100.
The plunging index has been driven lower by large drops of confidence amongst New Zealanders concerned about their financial positions compared to the same time last year and also their expectations for the next 12 months including both their personal financial situation and the economic situation of New Zealand as a whole.
The largest reversal was amongst New Zealanders expecting good times financially for New Zealand over the next 12 months. 52% (up 5% - and a record high) expect bad times financially for New Zealand coming up over the next 12 months compared to 24% (down 6% - and a record low) of New Zealanders that expect good times.
A large drop in confidence was also evident in relation to New Zealander’s comparison of their current financial situation with that of a year ago, with 41% (up 6%) of New Zealanders saying they and their family are worse off now than a year ago compared to 32% (down 4%) that say they are now better off financially than a year ago.
There was also a large increase in negativity in terms of New Zealander’s expectation for their financial position in 12 months time with only 42% (down 5% - and a record low) of New Zealanders expecting they and their family to be better off in 12 months time compared to 26% (up 4%) expecting to be worse off.
Looking further ahead, New Zealanders are more confident about the economic outlook for the country over the next 5 years with 39% (down 2%) of New Zealanders expecting continuous good times for New Zealand compared to only 29% (down 1%) expecting continuous bad times for New Zealand.
The number of New Zealanders saying now is a good time to buy major household items dropped for the third poll in a row to 45% (down 1%) while those saying now is a bad time to buy has jumped to a new record high of 36% (up 2%).
Gary Morgan says:
“As the bad US economic news continues, New Zealanders are becoming ever more negative about their own prospects and the prospects for the country as a whole over the next year. The steady newsbeat of bad news has continued in recent weeks with reports of slumping house prices and the continued rises in the price of petrol putting the pressure on consumers to keep their confidence up.
“As the record low Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating of 99.7 shows, the bad news is getting to consumers and they’re finding it tough to make ends meet at the moment. The Reserve Bank of NZ is due to next meet on April 24 to consider the level of interest rates.
“Overnight the Bank of England cut a further 25 basis points off UK interest rates, down to a seventeen month low of 5%. The Reserve Bank must now seriously consider following the lead of its overseas counterpart and quickly drop New Zealand’s record high interest rates which are amongst the highest in the developed world. This is the only way to avoid soon plunging New Zealand into a recession.”
This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from March 24 — April 6, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 992 people aged 14 and over.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
|
Percentage Estimate |
|
Sample Size |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yearly |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct* |
Nov |
Dec |
Average |
|
2004 |
135.7 |
131.7 |
130.2 |
133.5 |
129.8 |
130 |
134.4 |
132.9 |
133.9 |
135.4 |
135 |
136.1 |
133.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2005 |
140.9 |
139.1 |
136 |
125.2 |
125.5 |
128 |
127.7 |
125.6 |
126.2 |
121.4 |
121.3 |
121.4 |
119.8 |
121.1 |
117.5 |
126.4 |
|
|
Beg Jan |
Mid Jan |
Beg Feb |
Mid Feb |
Beg Mar |
Mid Mar |
Beg Apr |
Mid Apr |
Beg May |
Mid May |
Beg Jun |
Mid Jun |
Beg
Jul |
Mid
Jul |
Beg Aug |
Mid Aug |
Beg Sep |
Mid
Sep |
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2006 |
118.3 |
123 |
111 |
115 |
115.1 |
116.5 |
115.7 |
116.7 |
104.8 |
112.5 |
110.8 |
114 |
115.4 |
118.8 |
112.1 |
113.3 |
115.5 |
123.8 |
123.4 |
124.8 |
124.0 |
123.3 |
128.2 |
127.8 |
117.7 |
|
2007 |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
125.1 |
| 2008 |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
112.7 |
|
Monthly Average |
129.3 |
124.5 |
122.5 |
121.1 |
119.4 |
120.8 |
123.1 |
121.5 |
123.7 |
124.3 |
123.9 |
126.3 |
123.0 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005
^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:
| |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
|
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,930 |
1,033 |
1,016 |
983 |
1,002 |
992 |
|
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
44 |
46 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
32 |
|
|
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
29 |
28 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
41 |
|
|
|
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
15 |
18 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
-9 |
|
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
^ |
57 |
58 |
56 |
57 |
47 |
42 |
|
|
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
19 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
Question 2 difference |
^ |
38 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
25 |
16 |
|
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
^ |
37 |
36 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
24 |
|
|
|
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
32 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
47 |
52 |
|
|
|
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
5 |
-2 |
-8 |
1 |
-17 |
-28 |
|
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
40 |
43 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
39 |
|
|
|
| |
Bad times |
^ |
22 |
25 |
26 |
24 |
30 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
18 |
18 |
14 |
19 |
11 |
10 |
|
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
57 |
46 |
51 |
49 |
46 |
45 |
|
|
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
28 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
36 |
|
|
|
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
29 |
14 |
20 |
17 |
12 |
9 |
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,956 |
967 |
990 |
1,080 |
1,092 |
938 |
1,084 |
1,072 |
1,195 |
1,040 |
1,001 |
1,054 |
1,077 |
1,003 |
1,036 |
980 |
1,023 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
41 |
40 |
44 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
37 |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
21 |
23 |
22 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
23 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
20 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
7 |
16 |
8 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
| |
Better off |
^ |
58 |
56 |
56 |
55 |
59 |
57 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
50 |
50 |
48 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
51 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
12 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
|
Question 2 difference |
|
^ |
46 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
46 |
42 |
37 |
34 |
36 |
33 |
31 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
33 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good Times |
^ |
52 |
51 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
45 |
38 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
37 |
33 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
18 |
20 |
23 |
28 |
26 |
26 |
28 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
37 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
34 |
31 |
27 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
-4 |
0 |
7 |
9 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
52 |
53 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
54 |
47 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
45 |
46 |
44 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
47 |
| |
Bad times |
^ |
17 |
17 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
35 |
36 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
34 |
23 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
66 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
57 |
61 |
58 |
61 |
59 |
57 |
58 |
55 |
60 |
61 |
64 |
56 |
50 |
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
17 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
28 |
32 |
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
49 |
45 |
48 |
44 |
35 |
40 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
29 |
38 |
39 |
42 |
28 |
18 |
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
Interviews |
|
1,010 |
985 |
952 |
974 |
958 |
1,028 |
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
37 |
43 |
38 |
37 |
48 |
49 |
|
| |
Worse off |
29 |
24 |
27 |
29 |
28 |
25 |
|
|
Question 1 difference |
8 |
19 |
11 |
8 |
20 |
24 |
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
48 |
54 |
49 |
52 |
58 |
59 |
|
| |
Worse off |
21 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Question 2 difference |
|
27 |
38 |
33 |
37 |
42 |
43 |
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
37 |
45 |
40 |
40 |
43 |
43 |
|
| |
Bad Times |
36 |
26 |
29 |
27 |
27 |
29 |
|
|
Question 3 difference |
1 |
19 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand
as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or
so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
46 |
48 |
44 |
44 |
50 |
45 |
|
| |
Bad times |
24 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
|
|
Question 4 difference |
22 |
29 |
25 |
23 |
28 |
24 |
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
|
| |
Good time to buy |
52 |
57 |
56 |
51 |
55 |
54 |
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
30 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
Question 5 difference |
22 |
35 |
33 |
24 |
28 |
26 |
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
|
*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
