New Zealand Consumer Confidence (100.0 - Down 26.3 pts in 2008) Near Record Low as Reserve Bank Considers Interest Rates
| Article No. 744 -
Latest Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence:
April 24, 2008 |
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The mid April Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating of 100.0 (up 0.3pts) is close to its record low — 99.7 — reached in early April and down 26.3 points from December 2007 and 10.9 points below the 110.9 average for 2008 and 18.5 points below the 118.5 April average.
Now a record low 39% (down 6%) of New Zealanders say ‘now is a good time to buy major household items’ while 40% (up 4%) of New Zealanders say now is a bad time to buy major household items.
More than half of New Zealanders, 52% (unchanged), expect bad times financially for New Zealand over the next 12 months while just 28% of New Zealanders (up 4%) expect good times financially.
New Zealanders are slightly more optimistic about their personal financial situations than a few weeks ago, although near record lows, 46% (up 4%), of New Zealanders expect to be better off financially in a year’s time compared with 25% (down 1%) that expect to be worse off in 12 months time.
Comparing their current financial situation to that of a year ago sees that 35% (up 3%) of New Zealanders say they are better off financially now than at the same time last year while 42% (up 1%) say they are now financially worse off than a year ago.
Longer-term, New Zealanders still have a positive outlook with 40% (up 1%) expecting good times financially for New Zealand over the next 5 years compared to 29% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expecting bad times financially over the next 5 years.
Gary Morgan says:
“The Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating of 100.0 is only slightly off its record low of 99.7 and consumers are sending a clear signal to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
“The record low reading for ‘right time to buy’ (39%, down 6%) is a particularly worrying figure for New Zealand retailers as consumers scale back their purchases under the pressure of rising food and petrol costs.
“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s meeting today must cut the current record high interest rates unless they want a recession New Zealanders ‘don’t have to have.’”
This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from April 7-20, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1047 people aged 14 and over.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
|
Percentage Estimate |
|
Sample Size |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
ROY MORGAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE RATING
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
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Yearly |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct* |
Nov |
Dec |
Average |
|
2004 |
135.7 |
131.7 |
130.2 |
133.5 |
129.8 |
130 |
134.4 |
132.9 |
133.9 |
135.4 |
135 |
136.1 |
133.2 |
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|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2005 |
140.9 |
139.1 |
136 |
125.2 |
125.5 |
128 |
127.7 |
125.6 |
126.2 |
121.4 |
121.3 |
121.4 |
119.8 |
121.1 |
117.5 |
126.4 |
|
|
Beg Jan |
Mid Jan |
Beg Feb |
Mid Feb |
Beg Mar |
Mid Mar |
Beg Apr |
Mid Apr |
Beg May |
Mid May |
Beg Jun |
Mid Jun |
Beg
Jul |
Mid
Jul |
Beg Aug |
Mid Aug |
Beg Sep |
Mid
Sep |
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2006 |
118.3 |
123 |
111 |
115 |
115.1 |
116.5 |
115.7 |
116.7 |
104.8 |
112.5 |
110.8 |
114 |
115.4 |
118.8 |
112.1 |
113.3 |
115.5 |
123.8 |
123.4 |
124.8 |
124.0 |
123.3 |
128.2 |
127.8 |
117.7 |
|
2007 |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
125.1 |
| 2008 |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
100.0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
110.9 |
|
Monthly Average |
129.3 |
124.5 |
122.5 |
118.5 |
119.4 |
120.8 |
123.1 |
121.5 |
123.7 |
124.3 |
123.9 |
126.3 |
122.7 | * The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005
^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:
| |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
|
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,930 |
1,033 |
1,016 |
983 |
1,002 |
992 |
1,047 |
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
44 |
46 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
32 |
35 |
|
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
29 |
28 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
41 |
42 |
|
|
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
15 |
18 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
-9 |
-7 |
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
^ |
57 |
58 |
56 |
57 |
47 |
42 |
46 |
|
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
19 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
26 |
25 |
|
|
|
Question 2 difference |
^ |
38 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
25 |
16 |
21 |
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
^ |
37 |
36 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
24 |
28 |
|
|
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
32 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
47 |
52 |
52 |
|
|
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
5 |
-2 |
-8 |
1 |
-17 |
-28 |
-24 |
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
40 |
43 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
39 |
40 |
|
|
| |
Bad times |
^ |
22 |
25 |
26 |
24 |
30 |
29 |
29 |
|
|
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
18 |
18 |
14 |
19 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
57 |
46 |
51 |
49 |
46 |
45 |
39 |
|
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
28 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
36 |
40 |
|
|
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
29 |
14 |
20 |
17 |
12 |
9 |
-1 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
100.0 |
|
| * The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,956 |
967 |
990 |
1,080 |
1,092 |
938 |
1,084 |
1,072 |
1,195 |
1,040 |
1,001 |
1,054 |
1,077 |
1,003 |
1,036 |
980 |
1,023 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
41 |
40 |
44 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
37 |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
21 |
23 |
22 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
23 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
20 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
7 |
16 |
8 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
| |
Better off |
^ |
58 |
56 |
56 |
55 |
59 |
57 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
50 |
50 |
48 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
51 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
12 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
|
Question 2 difference |
|
^ |
46 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
46 |
42 |
37 |
34 |
36 |
33 |
31 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
33 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good Times |
^ |
52 |
51 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
45 |
38 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
37 |
33 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
18 |
20 |
23 |
28 |
26 |
26 |
28 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
37 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
34 |
31 |
27 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
-4 |
0 |
7 |
9 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
52 |
53 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
54 |
47 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
45 |
46 |
44 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
47 |
| |
Bad times |
^ |
17 |
17 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
35 |
36 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
34 |
23 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
66 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
57 |
61 |
58 |
61 |
59 |
57 |
58 |
55 |
60 |
61 |
64 |
56 |
50 |
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
17 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
28 |
32 |
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
49 |
45 |
48 |
44 |
35 |
40 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
29 |
38 |
39 |
42 |
28 |
18 |
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 | * The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
Interviews |
|
1,010 |
985 |
952 |
974 |
958 |
1,028 |
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
37 |
43 |
38 |
37 |
48 |
49 |
|
| |
Worse off |
29 |
24 |
27 |
29 |
28 |
25 |
|
|
Question 1 difference |
8 |
19 |
11 |
8 |
20 |
24 |
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
48 |
54 |
49 |
52 |
58 |
59 |
|
| |
Worse off |
21 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Question 2 difference |
|
27 |
38 |
33 |
37 |
42 |
43 |
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
37 |
45 |
40 |
40 |
43 |
43 |
|
| |
Bad Times |
36 |
26 |
29 |
27 |
27 |
29 |
|
|
Question 3 difference |
1 |
19 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand
as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or
so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
46 |
48 |
44 |
44 |
50 |
45 |
|
| |
Bad times |
24 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
|
|
Question 4 difference |
22 |
29 |
25 |
23 |
28 |
24 |
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
|
| |
Good time to buy |
52 |
57 |
56 |
51 |
55 |
54 |
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
30 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
Question 5 difference |
22 |
35 |
33 |
24 |
28 |
26 |
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
| *The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
