Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating
Drops 3 Points to 97.1 – First Time Under 100 Since September 1993
| Article No. 751 -
May 09, 2008 |
The May Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 97.1, down 3 points from April and a massive 25.4 points below the May 2007 result of 122.5.
This latest result is the first Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating since September 1993 to be less than 100.0 points.
The largest factor driving this fall is a the increased number of Australians who say they and their family will be financially worse off this time next year - 27% (up 5% from April and 11% from January). Only 32% (down 5% from April) of Australians expect they and their family will be financially better off this time next year.
More Australians expect “bad” economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months - 39% (up 2% from April and 14% since January). Only 26% of Australians (up 1% since April, but down 21% since December) expect “good” economic conditions in Australia over the next 12 months.
The number of Australians saying now is a bad time to buy major household items is at 35% (unchanged from April and up 15% since January) while 34% (up 1% from April, but down a massive 18% since January) say now is a good time to buy major household items.
Now 35% (up 1% from April and a large 15% since December) say that they are their family are financially worse off than a year ago, and 28% (down 1% from April and 10% from December) of Australians say that they and their family are financially better off than a year ago.
Looking further ahead, the number of Australians expecting bad economic times over the next five years is 26% (up 2%) and 29% (unchanged, but down 10% since December) expect good economic times over the next five years.
Gary Morgan says:
“Australians’ views of the economy and their own personal financial situations continue to deteriorate as the latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating of 97.1 shows — the first time the Index has dipped below 100.0 since September 1993.
“The large jump in Australians who expect their family to be in a worse financial situation in a year’s time (up 5% to 27%) shows Australians are beginning to worry that the downturn in economic conditions is likely to affect them and their families.
“The record high prices of petrol around the country, and the highest interest rates for nearly 12 years, at 7.25%, are putting a squeeze on consumer’s wallets as inflationary expectations start to take hold.
“The Reserve Bank (RBA), which finally noticed the distress in the community and did not again raise interest rates at its meeting earlier this week, May 6, should be dropping interest rates at its next meeting in June before the Australian economy enters a recession Australians don’t need.”
This month’s Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,186 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over on the weekend of May 3/4, 2008.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office + 61 3 9224 5213 Mobile + 61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office + 61 3 9224 5215 Mobile + 61 411 129 093
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
Yearly
Average |
|
1973 |
|
|
119.2 |
|
|
117.0 |
|
|
108.4 |
|
|
103.8 |
112.1 |
|
1974 |
|
|
103.2 |
|
|
95.6 |
|
|
90.6 |
|
|
92.2 |
95.4 |
|
1975 |
|
|
114.0 |
|
|
104.2 |
|
|
100.8 |
|
|
103.0 |
105.5 |
|
1976 |
113.6 |
|
107.0 |
110.2 |
|
107.0 |
105.6 |
|
108.0 |
108.8 |
101.2 |
|
107.7 |
|
1977 |
104.2 |
|
98.6 |
101.6 |
|
103.8 |
99.4 |
|
105.0 |
104.4 |
109.4 |
|
103.3 |
|
1978 |
119.2 |
|
114.8 |
110.8 |
|
109.6 |
101.6 |
|
91.2 |
104.4 |
103.6 |
|
106.9 |
|
1979 |
110.2 |
|
106.2 |
109.4 |
|
92.6 |
90.2 |
|
99.4 |
97.6 |
98.8 |
|
100.6 |
|
1980 |
98.8 |
|
100.8 |
97.4 |
|
101.6 |
98.2 |
|
104.4 |
109.8 |
106.4 |
|
102.2 |
|
1981 |
113.4 |
|
111.8 |
101.8 |
|
100.8 |
95.0 |
|
92.4 |
98.2 |
98.0 |
|
101.4 |
|
1982 |
92.4 |
|
91.8 |
93.6 |
|
92.2 |
80.4 |
|
84.6 |
81.2 |
75.2 |
|
86.4 |
|
1983 |
87.8 |
|
97.4 |
96.0 |
|
95.4 |
98.2 |
|
100.6 |
106.4 |
113.2 |
|
99.4 |
|
1984 |
124.6 |
|
120.8 |
120.8 |
|
115.6 |
116.6 |
|
118.2 |
117.8 |
114.6 |
|
118.6 |
|
1985 |
114.8 |
|
110.2 |
99.4 |
|
98.0 |
100.8 |
|
106.8 |
107.8 |
94.8 |
|
104.1 |
|
1986 |
105.4 |
|
103.8 |
94.6 |
94.8 |
91.6 |
79.8 |
79.8 |
78.8 |
89.8 |
85.6 |
88.8 |
90.3 |
|
1987 |
90.4 |
88.0 |
86.8 |
90.8 |
91.8 |
93.4 |
98.6 |
96.4 |
94.8 |
104.0 |
87.2 |
93.0 |
92.9 |
|
1988 |
100.4 |
98.8 |
103.6 |
106.2 |
104.0 |
104.0 |
107.6 |
108.2 |
112.4 |
108.8 |
104.2 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
|
1989 |
105.0 |
94.6 |
88.4 |
88.4 |
87.4 |
72.8 |
73.0 |
78.8 |
82.0 |
79.0 |
81.0 |
80.0 |
84.2 |
|
1990 |
101.6 |
95.6 |
83.4 |
88.3 |
84.7 |
83.1 |
79.6 |
83.9 |
75.6 |
71.4 |
73.1 |
71.3 |
82.6 |
|
1991 |
78.5 |
85.4 |
85.0 |
87.2 |
87.7 |
88.6 |
98.1 |
95.2 |
93.3 |
95.8 |
91.1 |
83.0 |
89.1 |
|
1992 |
93.6 |
95.9 |
96.2 |
105.4 |
101.6 |
97.7 |
95.4 |
96.9 |
96.8 |
101.2 |
93.6 |
92.9 |
97.3 |
|
1993 |
100.8 |
100.4 |
105.9 |
102.3 |
102.2 |
96.2 |
96.6 |
100.8 |
90.2 |
103.5 |
111.9 |
108.5 |
101.6 |
|
1994 |
120.5 |
127.5 |
125.7 |
127.7 |
125.2 |
128.0 |
127.6 |
123.8 |
123.6 |
124.6 |
118.1 |
118.0 |
124.2 |
|
1995 |
112.3 |
112.4 |
113.9 |
114.7 |
112.0 |
112.4 |
110.2 |
115.5 |
111.7 |
116.2 |
114.3 |
111.9 |
113.1 |
|
1996 |
116.7 |
119.1 |
123.7 |
121.5 |
118.8 |
117.8 |
112.3 |
114.4 |
113.2 |
111.3 |
113.4 |
113.2 |
116.3 |
|
1997 |
119.2 |
115.1 |
116.2 |
112.5 |
114.2 |
115.5 |
110.7 |
111.7 |
112.4 |
112.8 |
111.6 |
110.6 |
113.5 |
|
1998 |
117.8 |
116.0 |
114.9 |
110.2 |
114.4 |
109.8 |
107.6 |
111.1 |
111.0 |
113.9 |
114.2 |
114.7 |
112.8 |
|
1999 |
122.1 |
121.8 |
122.5 |
119.6 |
122.5 |
122.2 |
118.2 |
122.8 |
122.3 |
119.6 |
122.8 |
122.2 |
121.6 |
|
2000 |
122.3 |
119.9 |
112.9 |
116.6 |
112.0 |
108.7 |
114.8 |
119.1 |
115.8 |
115.6 |
110.3 |
112.3 |
115.0 |
|
2001 |
119.9 |
109.5 |
106.2 |
103.6 |
107.4 |
108.6 |
115.3 |
116.4 |
120.9* |
106.8 |
109.4 |
113.3 |
111.4 |
|
2002 |
124.8 |
123.0 |
122.3 |
123.2 |
124.0 |
116.4 |
123.4 |
119.9 |
122.1 |
117.2 |
114.0 |
109.6 |
120.0 |
|
2003 |
122.5 |
113.4 |
109.9 |
120.8 |
127.0 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
122.4 |
123.2 |
121.2 |
124.2 |
120.4 |
120.9 |
| 2004 |
126.0 |
126.8 |
130.4 |
124.4 |
125.0 |
125.6 |
128.9 |
127.6 |
126 |
128.9 |
124.8 |
125.5 |
126.7 |
| 2005 |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
119.2 |
| 2006 |
124.3 |
124.5 |
124.4 |
120.1 |
106.8 |
115.1 |
118.1 |
103.7^ |
108.6 |
115.8 |
111.5 |
117.4 |
115.9 |
| 2007 |
123.9 |
123.8 |
120.7 |
124.3 |
122.5 |
122.3 |
126.8 |
125.2 |
118.2 |
126.2 |
124.9 |
126.8 |
123.8 |
| 2008 |
118.6 |
115.8 |
109.5 |
100.1 |
97.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
108.2 |
|
|
|
Monthly
Average |
111.5 |
111.8 |
109.0 |
108.0 |
108.8 |
105.8 |
105.3 |
108.8 |
105.1 |
107.0 |
105.2 |
106.1 |
106.9 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3.
^ 84 of the 107 Western Australian interviews were conducted by telephone on August 9/10 due to a recent Southern WA Cyclone |
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,027 |
994 |
1,176 |
1,121 |
1,186 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
33 |
35 |
30 |
29 |
28 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
25 |
25 |
30 |
34 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
8 |
10 |
0 |
-5 |
-7 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
39 |
40 |
39 |
37 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
worse off |
16 |
17 |
17 |
22 |
27 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
23 |
23 |
22 |
15 |
5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
38 |
36 |
32 |
25 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
25 |
30 |
30 |
37 |
39 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
13 |
6 |
2 |
-12 |
-13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
35 |
37 |
33 |
29 |
29 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad times |
18 |
20 |
20 |
24 |
26 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
17 |
17 |
13 |
5 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
52 |
46 |
39 |
33 |
34 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bad time to buy |
20 |
23 |
29 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
32 |
23 |
10 |
-2 |
-1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
118.6 |
115.8 |
109.5 |
100.1 |
97.1 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,077 |
1,251 |
1,115 |
1,150 |
1,215 |
1,016 |
937 |
929 |
1,053 |
1,084 |
1,077 |
1,006 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
34 |
35 |
36 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
40 |
33 |
40 |
37 |
38 |
|
|
worse off |
25 |
26 |
26 |
24 |
27 |
25 |
27 |
23 |
27 |
21 |
24 |
20 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
11 |
8 |
9 |
12 |
7 |
9 |
10 |
17 |
6 |
19 |
13 |
18 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
41 |
46 |
39 |
42 |
41 |
39 |
44 |
44 |
39 |
45 |
42 |
44 |
|
|
worse off |
16 |
15 |
15 |
13 |
14 |
16 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
12 |
12 |
12 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
25 |
31 |
24 |
29 |
27 |
23 |
30 |
31 |
24 |
33 |
30 |
32 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
44 |
44 |
41 |
43 |
46 |
45 |
48 |
43 |
40 |
44 |
45 |
47 |
|
|
bad times |
21 |
21 |
21 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
17 |
20 |
23 |
16 |
16 |
13 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
23 |
23 |
20 |
24 |
27 |
26 |
31 |
23 |
17 |
28 |
29 |
34 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
37 |
37 |
36 |
37 |
35 |
34 |
38 |
38 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
|
|
bad times |
17 |
20 |
21 |
19 |
19 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
16 |
14 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
20 |
17 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
15 |
22 |
22 |
14 |
21 |
23 |
25 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
57 |
56 |
52 |
53 |
52 |
54 |
58 |
51 |
50 |
49 |
50 |
47 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
17 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
18 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
40 |
40 |
36 |
38 |
35 |
38 |
41 |
33 |
30 |
30 |
29 |
25 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
123.9 |
123.8 |
120.7 |
124.3 |
122.5 |
122.3 |
126.8 |
125.2 |
118.2 |
126.2 |
124.9 |
126.8 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2006 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,062 |
1,163 |
1,125 |
1,165 |
1,149 |
1,144 |
1,215 |
1,132 |
1,085 |
1,069 |
1,161 |
1,208 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
31 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
30 |
32 |
32 |
35 |
36 |
|
|
worse off |
26 |
25 |
25 |
27 |
35 |
30 |
31 |
34 |
32 |
27 |
27 |
24 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
5 |
10 |
9 |
7 |
-5 |
2 |
1 |
-4 |
0 |
5 |
8 |
12 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
42 |
44 |
45 |
43 |
37 |
41 |
40 |
35 |
38 |
39 |
39 |
41 |
|
|
worse off |
14 |
14 |
14 |
16 |
22 |
19 |
19 |
26 |
21 |
16 |
19 |
13 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
28 |
30 |
31 |
27 |
15 |
22 |
21 |
9 |
17 |
23 |
20 |
28 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
44 |
42 |
41 |
32 |
38 |
42 |
29 |
34 |
38 |
33 |
39 |
|
|
bad times |
21 |
21 |
20 |
25 |
34 |
26 |
25 |
38 |
32 |
26 |
31 |
24 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
20 |
23 |
22 |
16 |
-2 |
12 |
17 |
-9 |
2 |
12 |
2 |
15 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
36 |
35 |
34 |
34 |
30 |
29 |
33 |
29 |
30 |
32 |
28 |
33 |
|
|
bad times |
20 |
20 |
19 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
23 |
27 |
28 |
24 |
28 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
16 |
15 |
15 |
11 |
5 |
5 |
10 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
0 |
10 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
64 |
59 |
58 |
55 |
45 |
51 |
57 |
46 |
45 |
50 |
49 |
45 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
12 |
14 |
13 |
15 |
24 |
17 |
16 |
27 |
23 |
19 |
22 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
52 |
45 |
45 |
40 |
21 |
34 |
41 |
19 |
22 |
31 |
27 |
22 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
124.3 |
124.5 |
124.4 |
120.1 |
106.8 |
115.1 |
118.1 |
103.7 |
108.6 |
115.8 |
111.5 |
117.4 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows: |
|
2005 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Interviews |
1,141 |
1,250 |
1,181 |
1,074 |
1,092 |
1,070 |
1,038 |
1,077 |
1,033 |
1,114 |
1,003 |
1,083 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
better off |
36 |
36 |
35 |
32 |
34 |
32 |
31 |
36 |
32 |
32 |
31 |
34 |
|
|
worse off |
21 |
21 |
24 |
26 |
28 |
24 |
30 |
27 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
27 |
|
QUESTION 1 difference |
15 |
15 |
11 |
6 |
6 |
8 |
1 |
9 |
2 |
0 |
1 |
7 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
|
better off |
47 |
46 |
44 |
43 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
39 |
39 |
35 |
40 |
|
|
worse off |
11 |
11 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
20 |
16 |
21 |
26 |
20 |
17 |
|
QUESTION 2 difference |
36 |
35 |
29 |
28 |
27 |
25 |
21 |
24 |
18 |
13 |
15 |
23 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
52 |
50 |
39 |
38 |
36 |
35 |
35 |
42 |
36 |
28 |
32 |
41 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
15 |
23 |
26 |
24 |
25 |
27 |
23 |
28 |
39 |
32 |
23 |
|
QUESTION 3 difference |
38 |
35 |
16 |
12 |
12 |
10 |
8 |
19 |
8 |
-11 |
- |
18 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad? |
|
|
good times |
41 |
41 |
36 |
33 |
33 |
30 |
30 |
32 |
30 |
25 |
28 |
31 |
|
|
bad times |
14 |
13 |
16 |
22 |
21 |
23 |
22 |
24 |
25 |
29 |
26 |
26 |
|
QUESTION 4 difference |
27 |
28 |
20 |
11 |
12 |
7 |
8 |
8 |
5 |
-4 |
2 |
5 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items? |
|
|
good time to buy |
61 |
58 |
50 |
53 |
55 |
55 |
61 |
57 |
52 |
50 |
53 |
53 |
|
|
bad time to buy |
11 |
11 |
18 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
21 |
18 |
18 |
|
QUESTION 5 difference |
50 |
47 |
32 |
39 |
41 |
43 |
47 |
43 |
38 |
29 |
35 |
35 |
|
|
|
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating |
133.2 |
132.0 |
121.5 |
119.4 |
119.5 |
118.8 |
116.8 |
120.6 |
114.3 |
105.4 |
110.6 |
117.7 |
|
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
Sample Size |
Percentage Estimate |
| |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
1,500 |
±2.6 |
±2.2 |
±1.5 |
±1.1 |
|
