New Zealand Consumer Confidence (87.5) Rebounds Slightly from Record Low
| Article No. 770 -
June 19, 2008 |
The mid-June NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is up 2.1 points to 87.5 but is still lower than early May (92.7) and the June average of 112.2.
A majority of New Zealanders (50%, down 4%) say they are feeling worse off than last year, while only 25% (up 3%) say their family is better off.
Now a record 62% (up 2%) of New Zealanders are expecting New Zealand to have bad times financially over the next 12 months. Only 16% (down 3%) are expecting good times.
Over the next five years 38% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expect NZ to have good times, while only 32% (up 1%) anticipate bad times.
On a slightly brighter note, more New Zealanders (39%, up 1%) say they will be better off this time next year while 29% (down 3%) expect to be worse off.
More New Zealanders (45%, down 3%) are saying now is a bad time to buy major household items, with just 37% (up 3%) saying now is a good time to buy.
Gary Morgan says:
“Although the NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has improved slightly, it’s still very low and down 31.2 points since this time last year.”
“The small improvement in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has come from New Zealanders feeling better about their own personal circumstances and more optimistic about their future.”
“Of concern to the Government would be the large number of New Zealanders (45%) who feel that it’s a bad time to buy major household goods.”
This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from June 2 — 15, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 900 people aged 14 and over.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
|
Percentage Estimate |
|
Sample Size |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yearly |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct* |
Nov |
Dec |
Average |
|
2004 |
135.7 |
131.7 |
130.2 |
133.5 |
129.8 |
130 |
134.4 |
132.9 |
133.9 |
135.4 |
135 |
136.1 |
133.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2005 |
140.9 |
139.1 |
136 |
125.2 |
125.5 |
128 |
127.7 |
125.6 |
126.2 |
121.4 |
121.3 |
121.4 |
119.8 |
121.1 |
117.5 |
126.4 |
|
|
Beg Jan |
Mid Jan |
Beg Feb |
Mid Feb |
Beg Mar |
Mid Mar |
Beg Apr |
Mid Apr |
Beg May |
Mid May |
Beg Jun |
Mid Jun |
Beg
Jul |
Mid
Jul |
Beg Aug |
Mid Aug |
Beg Sep |
Mid
Sep |
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2006 |
118.3 |
123 |
111 |
115 |
115.1 |
116.5 |
115.7 |
116.7 |
104.8 |
112.5 |
110.8 |
114 |
115.4 |
118.8 |
112.1 |
113.3 |
115.5 |
123.8 |
123.4 |
124.8 |
124.0 |
123.3 |
128.2 |
127.8 |
117.7 |
|
2007 |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
125.1 |
| 2008 |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
100.0 |
92.7 |
85.6 |
85.4 |
87.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
102.4 |
|
Monthly Average |
129.3 |
124.5 |
122.5 |
118.5 |
111.9 |
112.2 |
123.1 |
121.5 |
123.7 |
124.3 |
123.9 |
126.3 |
121.0 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005
^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:
| |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
|
| June |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,930 |
1,033 |
1,016 |
983 |
1,002 |
992 |
1,047 |
1,101 |
1,081 |
|
| 987 |
900 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
44 |
46 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
32 |
35 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
25 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
29 |
28 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
41 |
42 |
49 |
51 |
54 |
50 |
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
15 |
18 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
-9 |
-7 |
-21 |
-23 |
-32 |
-25 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
^ |
57 |
58 |
56 |
57 |
47 |
42 |
46 |
44 |
39 |
38 |
39 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
19 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
26 |
25 |
28 |
32 |
32 |
29 |
|
Question 2 difference |
^ |
38 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
25 |
16 |
21 |
16 |
7 |
6 |
10 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
^ |
37 |
36 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
24 |
28 |
24 |
18 |
19 |
16 |
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
32 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
47 |
52 |
52 |
58 |
61 |
60 |
62 |
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
5 |
-2 |
-8 |
1 |
-17 |
-28 |
-24 |
-34 |
-43 |
-41 |
-46 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
40 |
43 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
39 |
40 |
39 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
| |
Bad times |
^ |
22 |
25 |
26 |
24 |
30 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
33 |
31 |
32 |
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
18 |
18 |
14 |
19 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
2 |
7 |
6 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
57 |
46 |
51 |
49 |
46 |
45 |
39 |
38 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
28 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
36 |
40 |
44 |
48 |
48 |
45 |
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
29 |
14 |
20 |
17 |
12 |
9 |
-1 |
-6 |
-14 |
-14 |
-8 |
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
100.0 |
92.7 |
85.6 |
85.4 |
87.5 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,956 |
967 |
990 |
1,080 |
1,092 |
938 |
1,084 |
1,072 |
1,195 |
1,040 |
1,001 |
1,054 |
1,077 |
1,003 |
1,036 |
980 |
1,023 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
41 |
40 |
44 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
37 |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
21 |
23 |
22 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
23 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
20 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
7 |
16 |
8 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
| |
Better off |
^ |
58 |
56 |
56 |
55 |
59 |
57 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
50 |
50 |
48 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
51 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
12 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
|
Question 2 difference |
|
^ |
46 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
46 |
42 |
37 |
34 |
36 |
33 |
31 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
33 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good Times |
^ |
52 |
51 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
45 |
38 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
37 |
33 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
18 |
20 |
23 |
28 |
26 |
26 |
28 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
37 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
34 |
31 |
27 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
-4 |
0 |
7 |
9 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
52 |
53 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
54 |
47 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
45 |
46 |
44 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
47 |
| |
Bad times |
^ |
17 |
17 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
35 |
36 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
34 |
23 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
66 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
57 |
61 |
58 |
61 |
59 |
57 |
58 |
55 |
60 |
61 |
64 |
56 |
50 |
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
17 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
28 |
32 |
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
49 |
45 |
48 |
44 |
35 |
40 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
29 |
38 |
39 |
42 |
28 |
18 |
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
Interviews |
|
1,010 |
985 |
952 |
974 |
958 |
1,028 |
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
37 |
43 |
38 |
37 |
48 |
49 |
|
| |
Worse off |
29 |
24 |
27 |
29 |
28 |
25 |
|
|
Question 1 difference |
8 |
19 |
11 |
8 |
20 |
24 |
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
48 |
54 |
49 |
52 |
58 |
59 |
|
| |
Worse off |
21 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Question 2 difference |
|
27 |
38 |
33 |
37 |
42 |
43 |
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
37 |
45 |
40 |
40 |
43 |
43 |
|
| |
Bad Times |
36 |
26 |
29 |
27 |
27 |
29 |
|
|
Question 3 difference |
1 |
19 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand
as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or
so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
46 |
48 |
44 |
44 |
50 |
45 |
|
| |
Bad times |
24 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
|
|
Question 4 difference |
22 |
29 |
25 |
23 |
28 |
24 |
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
|
| |
Good time to buy |
52 |
57 |
56 |
51 |
55 |
54 |
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
30 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
Question 5 difference |
22 |
35 |
33 |
24 |
28 |
26 |
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
|
*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
