New Zealand Consumer Confidence Sets Record Low – 82
| Article No. 772 -
July 04, 2008 |
The early July NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is at a record low of 82 points, down 5.6 points since mid June and 39.4 points lower than this time last year.
A record 64% (up 2%) of New Zealanders expect New Zealand to have bad times financially in the next 12 months, while only 16% (unchanged) look forward to good times.
More New Zealanders (58% - up 8%) than ever before are feeling worse off financially since this time last year, and just 22% (down 3%) say they are better off.
The highest number of New Zealanders to date (49% - up 4%) say that now is a bad time to buy major household items, and 35% (down 2%) think it’s a good time to buy.
During the next five years 37% (down 1%) of New Zealanders expect bad times for New Zealand as a whole, while a record number (36%) of New Zealanders expect bad times.
Although 40% (up 1%) of New Zealanders are expecting to be better off financially in the next 12 months, a record high (33%) are expecting to be worse off.
Gary Morgan says:
“The New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has never been so low.”
“Rising petrol and fuel prices mean that New Zealanders are concerned about their personal financial situations and their country’s economy. New Zealanders are feeling worse off than last year and expecting bad times in both the next twelve months and five years.”
This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from June 16— 29, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,119 people aged 14 and over.
For further information:
Gary Morgan: Office +61 3 9224 5213 Mobile +61 411 129 094
Michele Levine: Office +61 3 9224 5215 Mobile +61 411 129 093
Margin of Error
The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.
|
|
Percentage Estimate |
|
Sample Size |
40%-60% |
25% or 75% |
10% or 90% |
5% or 95% |
|
1,000 |
±3.2 |
±2.7 |
±1.9 |
±1.4 |
|
Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Yearly |
|
Year |
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
Oct* |
Nov |
Dec |
Average |
|
2004 |
135.7 |
131.7 |
130.2 |
133.5 |
129.8 |
130 |
134.4 |
132.9 |
133.9 |
135.4 |
135 |
136.1 |
133.2 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2005 |
140.9 |
139.1 |
136 |
125.2 |
125.5 |
128 |
127.7 |
125.6 |
126.2 |
121.4 |
121.3 |
121.4 |
119.8 |
121.1 |
117.5 |
126.4 |
|
|
Beg Jan |
Mid Jan |
Beg Feb |
Mid Feb |
Beg Mar |
Mid Mar |
Beg Apr |
Mid Apr |
Beg May |
Mid May |
Beg Jun |
Mid Jun |
Beg
Jul |
Mid
Jul |
Beg Aug |
Mid Aug |
Beg Sep |
Mid
Sep |
Beg Oct |
Mid Oct |
Beg
Nov |
Mid Nov |
Beg
Dec |
Mid Dec |
|
|
2006 |
118.3 |
123 |
111 |
115 |
115.1 |
116.5 |
115.7 |
116.7 |
104.8 |
112.5 |
110.8 |
114 |
115.4 |
118.8 |
112.1 |
113.3 |
115.5 |
123.8 |
123.4 |
124.8 |
124.0 |
123.3 |
128.2 |
127.8 |
117.7 |
|
2007 |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
125.1 |
| 2008 |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
100.0 |
92.7 |
85.6 |
85.4 |
87.5 |
82 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
100.8 |
|
Monthly Average |
129.3 |
124.5 |
122.5 |
118.5 |
111.9 |
112.2 |
117.2 |
121.5 |
123.7 |
124.3 |
123.9 |
126.3 |
120.6 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005
^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:
| |
|
2008 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
|
| June |
July |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,930 |
1,033 |
1,016 |
983 |
1,002 |
992 |
1,047 |
1,101 |
1,081 |
|
| 987 |
900 |
1,119 |
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
44 |
46 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
32 |
35 |
28 |
28 |
22 |
25 |
22 |
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
29 |
28 |
34 |
35 |
35 |
41 |
42 |
49 |
51 |
54 |
50 |
58 |
|
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
15 |
18 |
4 |
5 |
1 |
-9 |
-7 |
-21 |
-23 |
-32 |
-25 |
-36 |
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
|
| |
Better off |
^ |
57 |
58 |
56 |
57 |
47 |
42 |
46 |
44 |
39 |
38 |
39 |
40 |
|
| |
Worse off |
^ |
19 |
17 |
16 |
17 |
22 |
26 |
25 |
28 |
32 |
32 |
29 |
33 |
|
|
Question 2 difference |
^ |
38 |
41 |
40 |
40 |
25 |
16 |
21 |
16 |
7 |
6 |
10 |
7 |
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
|
| |
Good Times |
^ |
37 |
36 |
32 |
37 |
30 |
24 |
28 |
24 |
18 |
19 |
16 |
16 |
|
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
32 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
47 |
52 |
52 |
58 |
61 |
60 |
62 |
64 |
|
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
5 |
-2 |
-8 |
1 |
-17 |
-28 |
-24 |
-34 |
-43 |
-41 |
-46 |
-48 |
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
40 |
43 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
39 |
40 |
39 |
35 |
38 |
38 |
37 |
|
| |
Bad times |
^ |
22 |
25 |
26 |
24 |
30 |
29 |
29 |
30 |
33 |
31 |
32 |
36 |
|
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
18 |
18 |
14 |
19 |
11 |
10 |
11 |
9 |
2 |
7 |
6 |
1 |
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
57 |
46 |
51 |
49 |
46 |
45 |
39 |
38 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
35 |
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
28 |
32 |
31 |
32 |
34 |
36 |
40 |
44 |
48 |
48 |
45 |
49 |
|
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
29 |
14 |
20 |
17 |
12 |
9 |
-1 |
-6 |
-14 |
-14 |
-8 |
-14 |
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
121.2 |
117.8 |
114.2 |
116.8 |
106.6 |
99.7 |
100.0 |
92.7 |
85.6 |
85.4 |
87.5 |
82 |
|
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jan |
Feb |
Mar |
Apr |
May |
Jun |
Jul |
Aug |
Sep |
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
Interviews |
|
^ |
1,956 |
967 |
990 |
1,080 |
1,092 |
938 |
1,084 |
1,072 |
1,195 |
1,040 |
1,001 |
1,054 |
1,077 |
1,003 |
1,036 |
980 |
1,023 |
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
^ |
41 |
40 |
44 |
40 |
43 |
41 |
42 |
41 |
41 |
41 |
37 |
39 |
37 |
40 |
42 |
41 |
40 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
21 |
23 |
22 |
26 |
23 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
27 |
25 |
30 |
23 |
29 |
23 |
25 |
26 |
27 |
|
Question 1 difference |
^ |
20 |
17 |
22 |
14 |
20 |
16 |
18 |
15 |
14 |
16 |
7 |
16 |
8 |
17 |
17 |
15 |
13 |
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
| |
Better off |
^ |
58 |
56 |
56 |
55 |
59 |
57 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
50 |
50 |
48 |
50 |
51 |
52 |
53 |
51 |
| |
Worse off |
^ |
12 |
16 |
13 |
15 |
13 |
15 |
15 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
19 |
18 |
16 |
17 |
15 |
14 |
18 |
|
Question 2 difference |
|
^ |
46 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
46 |
42 |
37 |
34 |
36 |
33 |
31 |
30 |
34 |
34 |
37 |
39 |
33 |
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good Times |
^ |
52 |
51 |
50 |
48 |
45 |
47 |
45 |
38 |
40 |
43 |
40 |
41 |
37 |
33 |
37 |
39 |
39 |
| |
Bad Times |
^ |
18 |
20 |
23 |
28 |
26 |
26 |
28 |
35 |
30 |
30 |
37 |
30 |
34 |
37 |
37 |
32 |
30 |
|
Question 3 difference |
^ |
34 |
31 |
27 |
20 |
19 |
21 |
17 |
3 |
10 |
13 |
3 |
11 |
3 |
-4 |
0 |
7 |
9 |
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
^ |
52 |
53 |
51 |
49 |
50 |
54 |
47 |
44 |
45 |
46 |
45 |
46 |
44 |
40 |
47 |
44 |
47 |
| |
Bad times |
^ |
17 |
17 |
23 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
24 |
28 |
28 |
26 |
25 |
24 |
24 |
23 |
22 |
20 |
21 |
|
Question 4 difference |
^ |
35 |
36 |
28 |
26 |
28 |
34 |
23 |
16 |
17 |
20 |
20 |
22 |
20 |
17 |
25 |
24 |
26 |
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
| |
Good time to buy |
^ |
66 |
64 |
64 |
63 |
57 |
61 |
58 |
61 |
59 |
57 |
58 |
55 |
60 |
61 |
64 |
56 |
50 |
| |
Bad time to buy |
^ |
17 |
19 |
16 |
19 |
22 |
21 |
20 |
21 |
23 |
23 |
26 |
26 |
22 |
22 |
22 |
28 |
32 |
|
Question 5 difference |
^ |
49 |
45 |
48 |
44 |
35 |
40 |
38 |
40 |
36 |
34 |
32 |
29 |
38 |
39 |
42 |
28 |
18 |
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
^ |
136.8 |
133.8 |
133.7 |
128.8 |
129.7 |
130.5 |
126.6 |
121.6 |
122.5 |
123.2 |
118.7 |
121.4 |
120.7 |
120.5 |
124.3 |
122.7 |
119.8 |
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.
| |
|
2007 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Oct |
Nov |
Dec |
|
|
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
Beg |
Mid |
|
|
Interviews |
|
1,010 |
985 |
952 |
974 |
958 |
1,028 |
|
|
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year? |
|
Over the past year |
Better off |
37 |
43 |
38 |
37 |
48 |
49 |
|
| |
Worse off |
29 |
24 |
27 |
29 |
28 |
25 |
|
|
Question 1 difference |
8 |
19 |
11 |
8 |
20 |
24 |
|
|
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now? |
| |
Better off |
48 |
54 |
49 |
52 |
58 |
59 |
|
| |
Worse off |
21 |
16 |
16 |
15 |
16 |
16 |
|
|
Question 2 difference |
|
27 |
38 |
33 |
37 |
42 |
43 |
|
|
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good Times |
37 |
45 |
40 |
40 |
43 |
43 |
|
| |
Bad Times |
36 |
26 |
29 |
27 |
27 |
29 |
|
|
Question 3 difference |
1 |
19 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
14 |
|
|
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad? |
| |
Good times |
46 |
48 |
44 |
44 |
50 |
45 |
|
| |
Bad times |
24 |
19 |
19 |
21 |
22 |
21 |
|
|
Question 4 difference |
22 |
29 |
25 |
23 |
28 |
24 |
|
|
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? |
|
| |
Good time to buy |
52 |
57 |
56 |
51 |
55 |
54 |
|
| |
Bad time to buy |
30 |
22 |
23 |
27 |
27 |
28 |
|
|
Question 5 difference |
22 |
35 |
33 |
24 |
28 |
26 |
|
|
Roy Morgan
Consumer Confidence Rating |
116.0 |
128.0 |
122.7 |
121.0 |
126.9 |
126.3 |
|
*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.
|
