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 The mid July NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is 85.7 points, an improvement of 3.7 points since the start of the month, but still lower than June.

The rise in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is driven by New Zealanders feeling better about purchasing major household items. Now 41% (up 6%) of New Zealanders say it is a good time to buy - the highest number since the beginning of April, and 43% (down 6%) of New Zealanders say that now was a bad time to buy major household items.

New Zealanders are still feeling much worse off than last year, although there are some small signs of recovery in optimism. The record 64% of New Zealanders expecting bad times for their economy over the next 12 months remained unchanged, while only 19% (up 3%) expect good times.

The majority (56% - down 2%) of New Zealanders are feeling worse off financially than this time last year. Just 23% (up 1%) of New Zealanders are feeling better off than last year.

Looking ahead to this time next year 41% (up 1%) of New Zealanders expect to be better off financially, while 33% (unchanged) expect to be worse off.

During the next five years, 38% (up 1%) of New Zealanders are expecting good times and 37% (up 1%) are expecting bad times.

  Gary Morgan says:

 “Although the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has improved in the last fortnight — it is marginal. The confidence of New Zealanders is still well below 100 so optimism continues to be outweighed by pessimism”

 

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from June 30 — July 13, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,074 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

	Percentage Estimate
Sample Size	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
																									Yearly
Year	Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep		Oct*		Nov		Dec		Average
2004	135.7		131.7		130.2		133.5		129.8		130		134.4		132.9		133.9		135.4		135		136.1		133.2
																			Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2005	140.9		139.1		136		125.2		125.5		128		127.7		125.6		126.2		121.4	121.3	121.4	119.8	121.1	117.5	126.4
	Beg Jan	Mid Jan	Beg Feb	Mid Feb	Beg Mar	Mid Mar	Beg Apr	Mid Apr	Beg May	Mid May	Beg Jun	Mid Jun	Beg Jul	Mid Jul	Beg Aug	Mid Aug	Beg Sep	Mid Sep	Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2006	118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8	117.7
2007	^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3	125.1
2008	^	121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6	99.7	100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7											99.6
Monthly Average	129.3		124.5		122.5		118.5		111.9		112.2		113.3		121.5		123.7		124.3		123.9		126.3		120.4

                    * The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

                    ^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

			2008
			Jan					Feb		Mar			Apr			May
																		June		July
			Beg		Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews			^		1,930			1,033	1,016	983		1,002	992		1,047	1,101	1,081
																		987	900	1,119	1,074
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year		Better off		^	44			46	38	40		36	32		35	28	28	22	25	22	23
		Worse off		^	29			28	34	35		35	41		42	49	51	54	50	58	56
Question 1 difference				^	15			18	4	5		1	-9		-7	-21	-23	-32	-25	-36	-33
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
		Better off		^	57			58	56	57		47	42		46	44	39	38	39	40	41
		Worse off		^	19			17	16	17		22	26		25	28	32	32	29	33	33
Question 2 difference				^	38			41	40	40		25	16	21		16	7	6	10	7	8
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
		Good Times		^	37			36	32	37		30	24		28	24	18	19	16	16	19
		Bad Times		^	32			38	40	36		47	52		52	58	61	60	62	64	64
Question 3 difference				^	5			-2	-8	1		-17	-28		-24	-34	-43	-41	-46	-48	-45
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
		Good times		^	40			43	40	43		41	39		40	39	35	38	38	37	38
		Bad times		^	22			25	26	24		30	29		29	30	33	31	32	36	37
Question 4 difference				^	18			18	14	19		11	10		11	9	2	7	6	1	1
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? 1
	Good time to buy			^		57		46	51	49	46		45		39	38	34	34	37	35	41
	Bad time to buy			^		28		32	31	32	34		36		40	44	48	48	45	49	43
Question 5 difference				^		29		14	20	17	12		9		-1	-6	-14	-14	-8	-14	-2
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating				^			121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6		99.7		100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

			2007
			Jan			Feb		Mar			Apr		May				Jun				Jul			Aug			Sep
			Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid		Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid		Beg		Mid		Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid
Interviews			^		1,956	967	990	1,080	1,092		938	1,084	1,072		1,195		1,040		1,001		1,054		1,077	1,003	1,036	980		1,023
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year		Better off		^	41	40	44	40	43		41	42	41		41		41		37		39		37	40	42	41		40
		Worse off		^	21	23	22	26	23		25	24	26		27		25		30		23		29	23	25	26		27
Question 1 difference				^	20	17	22	14	20		16	18	15		14		16		7		16		8	17	17	15		13
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
		Better off		^	58	56	56	55	59		57	52	52		52		50		50		48		50	51	52	53		51
		Worse off		^	12	16	13	15	13		15	15	18		16		17		19		18		16	17	15	14		18
Question 2 difference				^	46	40	43	40	46		42	37	34		36		33		31		30		34	34	37	39		33
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
		Good Times		^	52	51	50	48	45		47	45	38		40		43		40		41		37	33	37	39		39
		Bad Times		^	18	20	23	28	26		26	28	35		30		30		37		30		34	37	37	32		30
Question 3 difference				^	34	31	27	20	19		21	17	3		10		13		3		11		3	-4	0	7		9
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
		Good times		^	52	53	51	49	50		54	47	44		45		46		45		46		44	40	47	44		47
		Bad times		^	17	17	23	23	22		20	24	28		28		26		25		24		24	23	22	20		21
Question 4 difference				^	35	36	28	26	28		34	23	16		17		20		20		22		20	17	25	24		26
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy			^	66	64	64	63		57	61	58	61		59		57		58		55		60	61	64	56		50
	Bad time to buy			^	17	19	16	19		22	21	20	21		23		23		26		26		22	22	22	28		32
Question 5 difference				^	49	45	48	44		35	40	38	40		36		34		32		29		38	39	42	28		18
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating				^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7		130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5		123.2		118.7		121.4		120.7		120.5	124.3	122.7		119.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

			2007
			Oct					Nov		Dec
			Beg		Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid
Interviews			1,010		985			952	974	958		1,028
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year		Better off		37	43			38	37	48		49
		Worse off		29	24			27	29	28		25
Question 1 difference				8	19			11	8	20		24
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
		Better off		48	54			49	52	58		59
		Worse off		21	16			16	15	16		16
Question 2 difference				27	38			33	37	42		43
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
		Good Times		37	45			40	40	43		43
		Bad Times		36	26			29	27	27		29
Question 3 difference				1	19			11	13	16		14
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
		Good times		46	48			44	44	50		45
		Bad times		24	19			19	21	22		21
Question 4 difference				22	29			25	23	28		24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy			52		57		56	51	55	54
	Bad time to buy			30		22		23	27	27	28
Question 5 difference				22		35		33	24	28	26
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating				116.0			128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

© 2007 Roy Morgan Research. All Rights Reserved
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