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As Australians anticipate interest rate cut Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating up 9.2 to 99.3

Article No. 793 - These are the latest results of the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating which was conducted with 1,042 Australians aged 14 and over on the weekend of August 30/31, 2008.: September 05, 2008

The latest Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 99.3 up 9.2 points from the 17-year low of 90.1 reached in early August. However, the Consumer Confidence Rating is still 18.9 points lower than September 2007.  (Interviewing for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was completed on the weekend of August 30/31, immediately prior to the Reserve Bank of Australia meeting on Tuesday September 2, 2008.)

The large rise in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating came as Australians anticipated a rate cut by the Reserve Bank on Tuesday September 2. The rise in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was mainly driven by Australians feeling more positive about the Australian economy in the future.

Now 24% (up 6% from August) of Australians say they expect good times for the economy in the next 12 months while 37% (down 11% since August) of Australians expect bad times.

Looking further ahead, 31% (up 6% since August - and the highest number since March this year) of Australians expect good times financially for Australia over the next five years or so while only 23% (down 5%) of Australians expect bad times financially over the next five years.

Less Australians say now is a bad time to buy major household items with 32% (down 8%) of Australians saying now is a bad time to buy compared to 32% (unchanged) of Australians saying now is a good time to buy.

On a personal level, 39% (down 4%) of Australians feel they are worse off than this time last year and just 27% (up 2%) of Australians feel better off.

Australians are also more positive about their own personal situation over the coming year with 36% (up 1%) expecting to be better off this time next year while 22% (down 3%) say they’ll be worse off in twelve months.

 

Gary Morgan says:

“The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating has rebounded strongly off its 17 year low, rising 9.2 points to 99.3. The rebound is a result of Australians anticipating the Reserve Bank would finally end its rigid high interest rates policy and start listening to what the community has been saying.

“I have consistently said that the Reserve Bank must cut interest rates — which are at 12-year highs — the Reserve Bank must understand that real unemployment in Australia (as measured by Roy Morgan) is much higher than the official ABS figures suggest. (The “Fantasy of full employment” was explained in Michele Levine’s March 14, 2008 address to the National Press Club “Almost 1.5 million Australians looking for work or looking to do more work .)

“The Reserve Bank must quickly cut interest rates further if they want to avoid putting more Australians out of work and plunging Australia into a recession we don’t need.”

 

This late August Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,042 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over on the weekend of August 30-31, 2008.

 

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample.  Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

 

Sample Size

Percentage Estimate

 

40%-60%

25% or 75%

10% or 90%

5% or 95%

1,000

±3.2

±2.7

±1.9

±1.4

 

For further information:

Gary Morgan:                    Office + 61 3 9224 5213           Mobile + 61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:                 Office + 61 3 9224 5215           Mobile + 61 411 129 093

 

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures

Year

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Yearly
Average

1973

 

 

119.2

 

 

117.0

 

 

108.4

 

 

103.8

112.1

1974

 

 

103.2

 

 

95.6

 

 

90.6

 

 

92.2

95.4

1975

 

 

114.0

 

 

104.2

 

 

100.8

 

 

103.0

105.5

1976

113.6

 

107.0

110.2

 

107.0

105.6

 

108.0

108.8

101.2

 

107.7

1977

104.2

 

98.6

101.6

 

103.8

99.4

 

105.0

104.4

109.4

 

103.3

1978

119.2

 

114.8

110.8

 

109.6

101.6

 

91.2

104.4

103.6

 

106.9

1979

110.2

 

106.2

109.4

 

92.6

90.2

 

99.4

97.6

98.8

 

100.6

1980

98.8

 

100.8

97.4

 

101.6

98.2

 

104.4

109.8

106.4

 

102.2

1981

113.4

 

111.8

101.8

 

100.8

95.0

 

92.4

98.2

98.0

 

101.4

1982

92.4

 

91.8

93.6

 

92.2

80.4

 

84.6

81.2

75.2

 

86.4

1983

87.8

 

97.4

96.0

 

95.4

98.2

 

100.6

106.4

113.2

 

99.4

1984

124.6

 

120.8

120.8

 

115.6

116.6

 

118.2

117.8

114.6

 

118.6

1985

114.8

 

110.2

99.4

 

98.0

100.8

 

106.8

107.8

94.8

 

104.1

1986

105.4

 

103.8

94.6

94.8

91.6

79.8

79.8

78.8

89.8

85.6

88.8

90.3

1987

90.4

88.0

86.8

90.8

91.8

93.4

98.6

96.4

94.8

104.0

87.2

93.0

92.9

1988

100.4

98.8

103.6

106.2

104.0

104.0

107.6

108.2

112.4

108.8

104.2

105.8

105.3

1989

105.0

94.6

88.4

88.4

87.4

72.8

73.0

78.8

82.0

79.0

81.0

80.0

84.2

1990

101.6

95.6

83.4

88.3

84.7

83.1

79.6

83.9

75.6

71.4

73.1

71.3

82.6

1991

78.5

85.4

85.0

87.2

87.7

88.6

98.1

95.2

93.3

95.8

91.1

83.0

89.1

1992

93.6

95.9

96.2

105.4

101.6

97.7

95.4

96.9

96.8

101.2

93.6

92.9

97.3

1993

100.8

100.4

105.9

102.3

102.2

96.2

96.6

100.8

90.2

103.5

111.9

108.5

101.6

1994

120.5

127.5

125.7

127.7

125.2

128.0

127.6

123.8

123.6

124.6

118.1

118.0

124.2

1995

112.3

112.4

113.9

114.7

112.0

112.4

110.2

115.5

111.7

116.2

114.3

111.9

113.1

1996

116.7

119.1

123.7

121.5

118.8

117.8

112.3

114.4

113.2

111.3

113.4

113.2

116.3

1997

119.2

115.1

116.2

112.5

114.2

115.5

110.7

111.7

112.4

112.8

111.6

110.6

113.5

1998

117.8

116.0

114.9

110.2

114.4

109.8

107.6

111.1

111.0

113.9

114.2

114.7

112.8

1999

122.1

121.8

122.5

119.6

122.5

122.2

118.2

122.8

122.3

119.6

122.8

122.2

121.6

2000

122.3

119.9

112.9

116.6

112.0

108.7

114.8

119.1

115.8

115.6

110.3

112.3

115.0

2001

119.9

109.5

106.2

103.6

107.4

108.6

115.3

116.4

120.9*

106.8

109.4

113.3

111.4

2002

124.8

123.0

122.3

123.2

124.0

116.4

123.4

119.9

122.1

117.2

114.0

109.6

120.0

2003

122.5

113.4

109.9

120.8

127.0

122.4

123.2

122.4

123.2

121.2

124.2

120.4

120.9

2004 126.0 126.8 130.4 124.4 125.0 125.6 128.9 127.6 126 128.9 124.8 125.5 126.7
2005 133.2 132.0 121.5 119.4 119.5 118.8 116.8 120.6 114.3 105.4 110.6 117.7 119.2
2006 124.3

124.5

124.4 120.1 106.8 115.1 118.1 103.7^ 108.6 115.8 111.5 117.4 115.9
2007 123.9 123.8 120.7 124.3 122.5 122.3 126.8 125.2 118.2 126.2 124.9 126.8 123.8
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Yearly Average
2/3 30/31 4/5 11/12        
2008 118.6 115.8 109.5 100.1 97.1 90.7 92.0 90.1 99.3           101.5

 

Monthly
Average

111.5

111.8

109.0

108.0

108.8

105.4

104.9

103.3

105.1

107.0

105.2

106.2

106.9

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3.

^ 84 of the 107 Western Australian interviews were conducted by telephone on August 9/10 due to a recent Southern WA Cyclone

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:

2008

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

 

Aug

2/3

 

Aug

30/31

Sep

 

Oct

4/5

 

Oct

11/12

Nov

Dec

Interviews

1,027 994 1,176 1,121 1,186 1,081 999 1,075 1,042      

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

  better off

33 35 30 29 27 22 28 25 27      

 

worse off

25 25 30 34 35 45 40 43 39      

QUESTION 1 difference

8 10 0 -5 -8 -23 -12 -18 -12      

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

better off

39 40 39 37 32 31 35 35 36      

 

worse off

16 17 17 22 27 31 29 25 22      

QUESTION 2 difference

23 23 22 15 5 0 6 10 14      

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

good times

38 36 32 25 26 22 19 18 24      

 

bad times

25 30 30 37 39 39 48 48 37      

QUESTION 3 difference

13 6 2 -12 -13 -17 -29 -30 -13      

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?

 

good times

35 37 33 29 29 26 26 25 31      

 

bad times

18 20 20 24 26 26 33 28 23      

QUESTION 4 difference

17 17 13 5 3 0 -7 -3 8      

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?

 

good time to buy

52 46 39 33 34 33 36 32 32      

 

bad time to buy

20 23 29 35 36 38 32 40 32      

QUESTION 5 difference

32 23 10 -2 -2 -5 3 -8 0      

 

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

118.6 115.8 109.5 100.1 97.1 90.7 92.0 90.1 99.3      

 

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

 

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:

2007

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Interviews

1,077 1,251 1,115 1,150 1,215 1,016 937 929 1,053 1,084 1,077 1,006

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

     better off

36 34 35 36 34 34 37 40 33 40 37 38

 

worse off

25 26 26 24 27 25 27 23 27 21 24 20

QUESTION 1 difference

11 8 9 12 7 9 10 17 6 19 13 18

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

better off

41 46 39 42 41 39 44 44 39 45 42 44

 

worse off

16 15 15 13 14 16 14 13 15 12 12 12

QUESTION 2 difference

25 31 24 29 27 23 30 31 24 33 30 32

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

good times

44 44 41 43 46 45 48 43 40 44 45 47

 

bad times

21 21 21 19 19 19 17 20 23 16 16 13

QUESTION 3 difference

23 23 20 24 27 26 31 23 17 28 29 34

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?

 

good times

37 37 36 37 35 34 38 38 34 37 39 39

 

bad times

17 20 21 19 19 19 16 16 20 16 16 14

QUESTION 4 difference

20 17 15 18 16 15 22 22 14 21 23 25

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?

 

good time to buy

57 56 52 53 52 54 58 51 50 49 50 47

 

bad time to buy

17 16 16 15 17 16 17 18 20 19 21 22

QUESTION 5 difference

40 40 36 38 35 38 41 33 30 30 29 25

 

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

123.9 123.8 120.7 124.3 122.5 122.3 126.8 125.2 118.2 126.2 124.9 126.8

 

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

 

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:

2006

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Interviews

1,062 1,163 1,125 1,165 1,149 1,144 1,215 1,132 1,085 1,069 1,161 1,208

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

     better off

31 35 34 34 30 32 32 30 32 32 35 36

 

worse off

26 25 25 27 35 30 31 34 32 27 27 24

QUESTION 1 difference

5 10 9 7 -5 2 1 -4 0 5 8 12

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

better off

42 44 45 43 37 41 40 35 38 39 39 41

 

worse off

14 14 14 16 22 19 19 26 21 16 19 13

QUESTION 2 difference

28 30 31 27 15 22 21 9 17 23 20 28

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

good times

41 44 42 41 32 38 42 29 34 38 33 39

 

bad times

21 21 20 25 34 26 25 38 32 26 31 24

QUESTION 3 difference

20 23 22 16 -2 12 17 -9 2 12 2 15

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?

 

good times

36 35 34 34 30 29 33 29 30 32 28 33

 

bad times

20 20 19 23 25 24 23 27 28 24 28 23

QUESTION 4 difference

16 15 15 11 5 5 10 2 2 8 0 10

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?

 

good time to buy

64 59 58 55 45 51 57 46 45 50 49 45

 

bad time to buy

12 14 13 15 24 17 16 27 23 19 22 23

QUESTION 5 difference

52 45 45 40 21 34 41 19 22 31 27 22

 

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

124.3 124.5 124.4 120.1 106.8 115.1 118.1 103.7 108.6 115.8 111.5 117.4

 

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

 

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating*
for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:

2005

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Interviews

1,141 1,250 1,181 1,074 1,092 1,070 1,038 1,077 1,033 1,114 1,003 1,083

Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?

Over the past year

     better off

36 36 35 32 34 32 31 36 32 32 31 34

 

worse off

21 21 24 26 28 24 30 27 30 32 30 27

QUESTION 1 difference

15 15 11 6 6 8 1 9 2 0 1 7

Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?

 

better off

47 46 44 43 42 41 41 40 39 39 35 40

 

worse off

11 11 15 15 15 16 20 16 21 26 20 17

QUESTION 2 difference

36 35 29 28 27 25 21 24 18 13 15 23

Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll
have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?

 

good times

52 50 39 38 36 35 35 42 36 28 32 41

 

bad times

14 15 23 26 24 25 27 23 28 39 32 23

QUESTION 3 difference

38 35 16 12 12 10 8 19 8 -11 0 18

Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times
during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?

 

good times

41 41 36 33 33 30 30 32 30 25 28 31

 

bad times

14 13 16 22 21 23 22 24 25 29 26 26

QUESTION 4 difference

27 28 20 11 12 7 8 8 5 -4 2 5

Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?

 

good time to buy

61 58 50 53 55 55 61 57 52 50 53 53

 

bad time to buy

11 11 18 14 14 12 14 14 14 21 18 18

QUESTION 5 difference

50 47 32 39 41 43 47 43 38 29 35 35

 

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating

133.2 132.0 121.5 119.4 119.5 118.8 116.8 120.6 114.3 105.4 110.6 117.7

 

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.


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