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The early October NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is 102.3 — down 7.6 points from mid-September and off the recent six-month highs. The NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is now 13.7 points below the level it was in early October 2007 of 116.0.

The large drop in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating was driven by large drops in the number of New Zealanders feeling now is a “good time to buy” major household items and also increasing worries about economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole over the next 12 months.

Just 39% (down 7%) of New Zealanders say now is a “good time to buy” major household items, while nearly half, 49% (up 10%), of New Zealanders say now is a “bad time to buy” major household items — the highest since early July.

More than half of the respondents, 51% (up 11%) expect New Zealand as a whole will have “bad times” economically over the next 12 months with only 30% (down 3%) expecting “good times” economically over the following year.

Comparing their financial situation to a year ago, 47% (up 1%) of New Zealanders say their family is “worse off” financially than a year ago compared to only 30% (down 1%) saying their family is “better off” financially than a year ago.

Looking further ahead New Zealanders are still more positive with 49% (down 2%) of New Zealanders expecting continuous “good times” for the country as a whole over the next five years while just 27% (unchanged) are expecting “bad times” for the country over the next five years.

Thinking of their personal financial situation, 55% (up 1% - the highest since early March) of New Zealanders expect their family to be better off financially this time next year while only 18% (down 2%) expect to be worse off.

Gary Morgan says:

“The New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has dropped 7.6 points to 102.3, the first drop since early July and by the largest amount since a 10.2 point fall in March despite a 0.5% cut in interest rates on September 11.

“The large drop in the number of New Zealanders saying now is a “good time to buy”(39%, down 7%) means the Reserve Bank must cut interest rates immediately by 1% to stop New Zealand sliding deeper into recession. If not the “good time to buy” will fall to Australian levels of only 29%.

“As the global slowdown intensifies, New Zealand must increase domestic consumption to drive growth and the best way to support the domestic economy is with lower interest rates.”

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from September 22 — October 5, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,106 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

	Percentage Estimate
Sample Size	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
																									Yearly
Year	Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep		Oct*		Nov		Dec		Average
2004	135.7		131.7		130.2		133.5		129.8		130		134.4		132.9		133.9		135.4		135		136.1		133.2
																			Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg. Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2005	140.9		139.1		136		125.2		125.5		128		127.7		125.6		126.2		121.4	121.3	121.4	119.8	121.1	117.5	126.4
	Beg Jan	Mid Jan	Beg Feb	Mid Feb	Beg Mar	Mid Mar	Beg Apr	Mid Apr	Beg May	Mid May	Beg Jun	Mid Jun	Beg Jul	Mid Jul	Beg Aug	Mid Aug	Beg Sep	Mid Sep	Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2006	118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8	117.7
2007	^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3	125.1
2008	^	121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6	99.7	100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9	102.3						99.9
Monthly Average	129.3		124.5		122.5		118.5		111.9		112.2		113.3		113.9		121.3		121.6		123.9		126.3		120.5

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

			2008
			Jan					Feb		Mar			Apr			May
																		June		July		August		September		October
			Beg		Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews			^		1,930			1,033	1,016	983		1,002	992		1,047	1,101	1,081
																		987	900	1,119	1,074	1,036	1,034	1,031	1,020	1,106
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year		Better off		^	44			46	38	40		36	32		35	28	28	22	25	22	23	24	28	27	31	30
		Worse off		^	29			28	34	35		35	41		42	49	51	54	50	58	56	56	51	47	46	47
Question 1 difference				^	15			18	4	5		1	-9		-7	-21	-23	-32	-25	-36	-33	-32	-23	-20	-15	-17
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
		Better off		^	57			58	56	57		47	42		46	44	39	38	39	40	41	44	50	53	54	55
		Worse off		^	19			17	16	17		22	26		25	28	32	32	29	33	33	28	25	19	20	18
Question 2 difference				^	38			41	40	40		25	16	21		16	7	6	10	7	8	16	25	34	34	37
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
		Good Times		^	37			36	32	37		30	24		28	24	18	19	16	16	19	19	25	35	33	30
		Bad Times		^	32			38	40	36		47	52		52	58	61	60	62	64	64	60	55	43	40	51
Question 3 difference				^	5			-2	-8	1		-17	-28		-24	-34	-43	-41	-46	-48	-45	-41	-30	-8	-7	-21
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
		Good times		^	40			43	40	43		41	39		40	39	35	38	38	37	38	36	42	49	51	49
		Bad times		^	22			25	26	24		30	29		29	30	33	31	32	36	37	37	31	23	27	27
Question 4 difference				^	18			18	14	19		11	10		11	9	2	7	6	1	1	-1	11	26	24	22
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items? 1
	Good time to buy			^		57		46	51	49	46		45		39	38	34	34	37	35	41	42	39	45	46	39
	Bad time to buy			^		28		32	31	32	34		36		40	44	48	48	45	49	43	46	47	40	39	49
Question 5 difference				^		29		14	20	17	12		9		-1	-6	-14	-14	-8	-14	-2	-4	-8	5	7	-10
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating				^			121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6		99.7		100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9	102.3

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

				2007
				Jan			Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep
				Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews				^		1,956	967	990	1,080	1,092	938	1,084	1,072	1,195	1,040	1,001	1,054	1,077	1,003	1,036	980	1,023
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year			Better off		^	41	40	44	40	43	41	42	41	41	41	37	39	37	40	42	41	40
			Worse off		^	21	23	22	26	23	25	24	26	27	25	30	23	29	23	25	26	27
Question 1 difference					^	20	17	22	14	20	16	18	15	14	16	7	16	8	17	17	15	13
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
			Better off		^	58	56	56	55	59	57	52	52	52	50	50	48	50	51	52	53	51
			Worse off		^	12	16	13	15	13	15	15	18	16	17	19	18	16	17	15	14	18
Question 2 difference					^	46	40	43	40	46	42	37	34	36	33	31	30	34	34	37	39	33
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
			Good Times		^	52	51	50	48	45	47	45	38	40	43	40	41	37	33	37	39	39
			Bad Times		^	18	20	23	28	26	26	28	35	30	30	37	30	34	37	37	32	30
Question 3 difference					^	34	31	27	20	19	21	17	3	10	13	3	11	3	-4	0	7	9
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
			Good times		^	52	53	51	49	50	54	47	44	45	46	45	46	44	40	47	44	47
			Bad times		^	17	17	23	23	22	20	24	28	28	26	25	24	24	23	22	20	21
Question 4 difference					^	35	36	28	26	28	34	23	16	17	20	20	22	20	17	25	24	26
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
		Good time to buy			^	66	64	64	63	57	61	58	61	59	57	58	55	60	61	64	56	50
		Bad time to buy			^	17	19	16	19	22	21	20	21	23	23	26	26	22	22	22	28	32
Question 5 difference					^	49	45	48	44	35	40	38	40	36	34	32	29	38	39	42	28	18
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating					^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2007
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		1,010	985	952	974	958	1,028
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	37	43	38	37	48	49
	Worse off	29	24	27	29	28	25
Question 1 difference		8	19	11	8	20	24
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	48	54	49	52	58	59
	Worse off	21	16	16	15	16	16
Question 2 difference		27	38	33	37	42	43
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	37	45	40	40	43	43
	Bad Times	36	26	29	27	27	29
Question 3 difference		1	19	11	13	16	14
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	46	48	44	44	50	45
	Bad times	24	19	19	21	22	21
Question 4 difference		22	29	25	23	28	24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	52	57	56	51	55	54
	Bad time to buy	30	22	23	27	27	28
Question 5 difference		22	35	33	24	28	26
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

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