[Roy Morgan Research] Morgan Poll

On November 1/2, 2008 the weekly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was up 3.0pts to 90.3. The rise followed media speculation that the RBA would cut interest rates on Melbourne Cup day.

Roy Morgan’s next weekly Consumer Confidence Rating will measure the effect of the RBA’s interest rate cut — a larger than expected 0.75%.

The rise in the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has been driven by more positive feelings about the Australian economy in the future. Now 30% (up 2% in a week) of Australians expect continuous “good times” for Australia over the next five years compared to 25% (down 3%) who expect “bad times.”

Over the next 12 months, there is still a majority, 51% (down 3%), that expect “bad times” for Australia, while 14% (unchanged) of Australians now expect “good times.”

Retailers still have cause for worry as only 31% (up 3%) of Australians say now is a “good time to buy” major household items compared to 43% (up 3%) of Australians that say now is a “bad time to buy.”

Thinking of their own financial situation, 34% (up 2%) of Australians expect to be “better off” financially in a year’s time compared to 25% (down 2%) that expect to be “worse off.”

Comparing their financial situation with that of 12 months ago, 26% (up 1%) of Australians say their family is better off than a year ago while 40% (down 2%) say their family is “worse off.”

This special Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is based on 1,060 face-to-face interviews conducted Australia-wide with men and women aged 14 and over on the weekend of November 1/2, 2008.

*The ‘underemployed’ are those people who are in part-time work or consultants who are looking for more work. (Unfortunately the ABS does not measure this figure in their monthly unemployment estimate.)

The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for Australia is now conducted on a weekly basis given its importance as an economic indicator.

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based. The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

Sample Size	Percentage Estimate
	*40%-60%*	*25% or 75%*	*10% or 90%*	*5% or 95%*
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug		Sep	Oct				Nov		Dec	Yearly Average
1973			119.2			117.0				108.4							103.8	112.1
1974			103.2			95.6				90.6							92.2	95.4
1975			114.0			104.2				100.8							103.0	105.5
1976	113.6		107.0	110.2		107.0	105.6			108.0	108.8				101.2			107.7
1977	104.2		98.6	101.6		103.8	99.4			105.0	104.4				109.4			103.3
1978	119.2		114.8	110.8		109.6	101.6			91.2	104.4				103.6			106.9
1979	110.2		106.2	109.4		92.6	90.2			99.4	97.6				98.8			100.6
1980	98.8		100.8	97.4		101.6	98.2			104.4	109.8				106.4			102.2
1981	113.4		111.8	101.8		100.8	95.0			92.4	98.2				98.0			101.4
1982	92.4		91.8	93.6		92.2	80.4			84.6	81.2				75.2			86.4
1983	87.8		97.4	96.0		95.4	98.2			100.6	106.4				113.2			99.4
1984	124.6		120.8	120.8		115.6	116.6			118.2	117.8				114.6			118.6
1985	114.8		110.2	99.4		98.0	100.8			106.8	107.8				94.8			104.1
1986	105.4		103.8	94.6	94.8	91.6	79.8	79.8		78.8	89.8				85.6		88.8	90.3
1987	90.4	88.0	86.8	90.8	91.8	93.4	98.6	96.4		94.8	104.0				87.2		93.0	92.9
1988	100.4	98.8	103.6	106.2	104.0	104.0	107.6	108.2		112.4	108.8				104.2		105.8	105.3
1989	105.0	94.6	88.4	88.4	87.4	72.8	73.0	78.8		82.0	79.0				81.0		80.0	84.2
1990	101.6	95.6	83.4	88.3	84.7	83.1	79.6	83.9		75.6	71.4				73.1		71.3	82.6
1991	78.5	85.4	85.0	87.2	87.7	88.6	98.1	95.2		93.3	95.8				91.1		83.0	89.1
1992	93.6	95.9	96.2	105.4	101.6	97.7	95.4	96.9		96.8	101.2				93.6		92.9	97.3
1993	100.8	100.4	105.9	102.3	102.2	96.2	96.6	100.8		90.2	103.5				111.9		108.5	101.6
1994	120.5	127.5	125.7	127.7	125.2	128.0	127.6	123.8		123.6	124.6				118.1		118.0	124.2
1995	112.3	112.4	113.9	114.7	112.0	112.4	110.2	115.5		111.7	116.2				114.3		111.9	113.1
1996	116.7	119.1	123.7	121.5	118.8	117.8	112.3	114.4		113.2	111.3				113.4		113.2	116.3
1997	119.2	115.1	116.2	112.5	114.2	115.5	110.7	111.7		112.4	112.8				111.6		110.6	113.5
1998	117.8	116.0	114.9	110.2	114.4	109.8	107.6	111.1		111.0	113.9				114.2		114.7	112.8
1999	122.1	121.8	122.5	119.6	122.5	122.2	118.2	122.8		122.3	119.6				122.8		122.2	121.6
2000	122.3	119.9	112.9	116.6	112.0	108.7	114.8	119.1		115.8	115.6				110.3		112.3	115.0
2001	119.9	109.5	106.2	103.6	107.4	108.6	115.3	116.4		120.9*	106.8				109.4		113.3	111.4
2002	124.8	123.0	122.3	123.2	124.0	116.4	123.4	119.9		122.1	117.2				114.0		109.6	120.0
2003	122.5	113.4	109.9	120.8	127.0	122.4	123.2	122.4		123.2	121.2				124.2		120.4	120.9
2004	126.0	126.8	130.4	124.4	125.0	125.6	128.9	127.6		126	128.9				124.8		125.5	126.7
2005	133.2	132.0	121.5	119.4	119.5	118.8	116.8	120.6		114.3	105.4				110.6		117.7	119.2
2006	124.3	124.5	124.4	120.1	106.8	115.1	118.1	103.7^		108.6	115.8				111.5		117.4	115.9
2007	123.9	123.8	120.7	124.3	122.5	122.3	126.8	125.2		118.2	126.2				124.9		126.8	123.8
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug		Sep	Oct				Nov		Dec	Yearly Average
Year	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	2/3	30/31	Sep	4/5	11/12	18/19	25/26	1/2	8/9		Yearly Average
2008	118.6	115.8	109.5	100.1	97.1	90.7	92.0	90.1	99.3	101.2	94.2	89.5	90.7	87.3	90.3			97.8

Monthly Average	111.5	111.8	109.0	108.0	108.8	105.4	104.9	103.5		101.6	105.7				104.8		106.1	106.7
* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating for September 15/16, 2001, conducted by telephone, was 102.3. ^ 84 of the 107 Western Australian interviews were conducted by telephone on August 9/10 due to a recent Southern WA Cyclone

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2008		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug		Sep	Oct				Nov			Dec
2008		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	2/3	30/31	Sep	4/5	11/12	18/19	25/26	1/2	8/9	15/16	Dec
Interviews		1,027	994	1,176	1,121	1,186	1,081	999	1,075	1,042	1,057	1,183	981	1,064	1,072	1,060
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	33	35	30	29	27	22	28	25	27	28	25	26	27	25	26
	worse off	25	25	30	34	35	45	40	43	39	39	38	41	37	42	40
QUESTION 1 difference		8	10	0	-5	-8	-23	-12	-18	-12	-11	-13	-15	-10	-17	-14
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	39	40	39	37	32	31	35	35	36	38	38	34	34	32	34
	worse off	16	17	17	22	27	31	29	25	22	22	22	23	24	27	25
QUESTION 2 difference		23	23	22	15	5	0	6	10	14	16	16	11	10	5	9
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	38	36	32	25	26	22	19	18	24	25	19	14	15	14	14
	bad times	25	30	30	37	39	39	48	48	37	38	44	49	48	54	51
QUESTION 3 difference		13	6	2	-12	-13	-17	-29	-30	-13	-13	-25	-35	-33	-40	-37
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?
	good times	35	37	33	29	29	26	26	25	31	30	28	28	27	28	30
	bad times	18	20	20	24	26	26	33	28	23	21	22	26	26	28	25
QUESTION 4 difference		17	17	13	5	3	0	-7	-3	8	9	6	2	1	0	5
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?
	good time to buy	52	46	39	33	34	33	36	32	32	35	29	26	30	28	31
	bad time to buy	20	23	29	35	36	38	32	40	32	30	40	43	45	40	43
QUESTION 5 difference		32	23	10	-2	-2	-5	3	-8	0	5	-11	-17	-15	-12	-12

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		118.6	115.8	109.5	100.1	97.1	90.7	92.0	90.1	99.3	101.2	94.2	89.5	90.7	87.3	90.3

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2007		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Interviews		1,077	1,251	1,115	1,150	1,215	1,016	937	929	1,053	1,084	1,077	1,006
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	36	34	35	36	34	34	37	40	33	40	37	38
	worse off	25	26	26	24	27	25	27	23	27	21	24	20
QUESTION 1 difference		11	8	9	12	7	9	10	17	6	19	13	18
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	41	46	39	42	41	39	44	44	39	45	42	44
	worse off	16	15	15	13	14	16	14	13	15	12	12	12
QUESTION 2 difference		25	31	24	29	27	23	30	31	24	33	30	32
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	44	44	41	43	46	45	48	43	40	44	45	47
	bad times	21	21	21	19	19	19	17	20	23	16	16	13
QUESTION 3 difference		23	23	20	24	27	26	31	23	17	28	29	34
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?
	good times	37	37	36	37	35	34	38	38	34	37	39	39
	bad times	17	20	21	19	19	19	16	16	20	16	16	14
QUESTION 4 difference		20	17	15	18	16	15	22	22	14	21	23	25
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?
	good time to buy	57	56	52	53	52	54	58	51	50	49	50	47
	bad time to buy	17	16	16	15	17	16	17	18	20	19	21	22
QUESTION 5 difference		40	40	36	38	35	38	41	33	30	30	29	25

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		123.9	123.8	120.7	124.3	122.5	122.3	126.8	125.2	118.2	126.2	124.9	126.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2006		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Interviews		1,062	1,163	1,125	1,165	1,149	1,144	1,215	1,132	1,085	1,069	1,161	1,208
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	31	35	34	34	30	32	32	30	32	32	35	36
	worse off	26	25	25	27	35	30	31	34	32	27	27	24
QUESTION 1 difference		5	10	9	7	-5	2	1	-4	0	5	8	12
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	42	44	45	43	37	41	40	35	38	39	39	41
	worse off	14	14	14	16	22	19	19	26	21	16	19	13
QUESTION 2 difference		28	30	31	27	15	22	21	9	17	23	20	28
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	41	44	42	41	32	38	42	29	34	38	33	39
	bad times	21	21	20	25	34	26	25	38	32	26	31	24
QUESTION 3 difference		20	23	22	16	-2	12	17	-9	2	12	2	15
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?
	good times	36	35	34	34	30	29	33	29	30	32	28	33
	bad times	20	20	19	23	25	24	23	27	28	24	28	23
QUESTION 4 difference		16	15	15	11	5	5	10	2	2	8	0	10
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?
	good time to buy	64	59	58	55	45	51	57	46	45	50	49	45
	bad time to buy	12	14	13	15	24	17	16	27	23	19	22	23
QUESTION 5 difference		52	45	45	40	21	34	41	19	22	31	27	22

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		124.3	124.5	124.4	120.1	106.8	115.1	118.1	103.7	108.6	115.8	111.5	117.4

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys are as follows:
2005		Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	June	July	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Interviews		1,141	1,250	1,181	1,074	1,092	1,070	1,038	1,077	1,033	1,114	1,003	1,083
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	better off	36	36	35	32	34	32	31	36	32	32	31	34
	worse off	21	21	24	26	28	24	30	27	30	32	30	27
QUESTION 1 difference		15	15	11	6	6	8	1	9	2	0	1	7
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	better off	47	46	44	43	42	41	41	40	39	39	35	40
	worse off	11	11	15	15	15	16	20	16	21	26	20	17
QUESTION 2 difference		36	35	29	28	27	25	21	24	18	13	15	23
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in Australia as a whole. In the next 12 months, do you expect we'll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	good times	52	50	39	38	36	35	35	42	36	28	32	41
	bad times	14	15	23	26	24	25	27	23	28	39	32	23
QUESTION 3 difference		38	35	16	12	12	10	8	19	8	-11	0	18
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in Australia as a whole, we'll have continuous good times during the next five years of so - or we'll have bad times - or some good and some bad?
	good times	41	41	36	33	33	30	30	32	30	25	28	31
	bad times	14	13	16	22	21	23	22	24	25	29	26	26
QUESTION 4 difference		27	28	20	11	12	7	8	8	5	-4	2	5
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time - or a bad time - for people to buy major household items?
	good time to buy	61	58	50	53	55	55	61	57	52	50	53	53
	bad time to buy	11	11	18	14	14	12	14	14	14	21	18	18
QUESTION 5 difference		50	47	32	39	41	43	47	43	38	29	35	35

Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		133.2	132.0	121.5	119.4	119.5	118.8	116.8	120.6	114.3	105.4	110.6	117.7

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give a favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

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