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The early November NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is up 1.3 points to 98.3. The NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is now 24.4 points below the 122.7 it was in early November 2007. This rating was carried out between October 20 — November 2, after the decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to drop interest rates by 1% to 6.5% on October 23.

This rise in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has been driven by less pessimism amongst New Zealanders about the economic conditions for the country in the year ahead.

Now 55% (down 6%) of New Zealanders expect New Zealand will have “bad times” financially over the next 12 months compared to only 24% (up 1%) of New Zealanders that expect to have “good times.”

Thinking of their personal financial situation, 52% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expect their family to be better off financially this time next year while only 19% (down 3%) expect to be worse off.

Retailers are very worried as more than half, 52% (up 3%), of New Zealanders say now is a “bad time to buy” major household items while just 35% (down 2%) of New Zealanders say now is a “good time to buy” major household items.

Looking further ahead New Zealanders are more positive with 48% (up 1%) of New Zealanders expecting continuous “good times” for the country as a whole over the next five years while 27% (down 2%) are expecting “bad times” for the country over the next five years.

Comparing their financial situation to a year ago, 44% (unchanged) of New Zealanders say their family is “worse off” financially than a year ago compared to only 30% (down 1%) saying their family is “better off” financially than a year ago.

Gary Morgan says:

“The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is finally taking action to try and pull New Zealand out of a recession that it should never endured in the first place.

“The recent interest rate cut of 1% was the right move, however, it needs to be followed up by further cuts to stimulate business in New Zealand.

“More than half of all New Zealanders, 52%, say now is a “bad time to buy” major household items, and if this number holds through Christmas it is going to be a terrible Summer for retailers.

“New Zealanders need more support and it is vital that the new Government in Wellington takes immediate action to provide consumers with renewed confidence and a reason to start buying again.”

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from October 20 — November 2, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,094 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

	Percentage Estimate
Sample Size	40%-60%	25% or 75%	10% or 90%	5% or 95%
1,000	±3.2	±2.7	±1.9	±1.4

Monthly Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating Figures
																									Yearly Average
Year	Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep		Oct*		Nov		Dec
2004	135.7		131.7		130.2		133.5		129.8		130		134.4		132.9		133.9		135.4		135		136.1		133.2
																			Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2005	140.9		139.1		136		125.2		125.5		128		127.7		125.6		126.2		121.4	121.3	121.4	119.8	121.1	117.5	126.4
	Beg Jan	Mid Jan	Beg Feb	Mid Feb	Beg Mar	Mid Mar	Beg Apr	Mid Apr	Beg May	Mid May	Beg Jun	Mid Jun	Beg Jul	Mid Jul	Beg Aug	Mid Aug	Beg Sep	Mid Sep	Beg Oct	Mid Oct	Beg Nov	Mid Nov	Beg Dec	Mid Dec
2006	118.3	123	111	115	115.1	116.5	115.7	116.7	104.8	112.5	110.8	114	115.4	118.8	112.1	113.3	115.5	123.8	123.4	124.8	124.0	123.3	128.2	127.8	117.7
2007	^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8	116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3	125.1
2008	^	121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6	99.7	100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9	102.3	97.0	98.3				99.6
Monthly Average	129.3		124.5		122.5		118.5		111.9		112.2		113.3		113.9		121.3		118.8		120.7		126.3		119.3

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

		2008
		Jan				Feb		Mar			Apr			May
																June		July		August		Sep
		Beg	Mid			Beg	Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg		Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	1,930			1,033	1,016	983		1,002	992		1,047	1,101	1,081
																987	900	1,119	1,074	1,036	1,034	1,031	1,020
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	44			46	38	40		36	32		35	28	28	22	25	22	23	24	28	27	31
	Worse off	^	29			28	34	35		35	41		42	49	51	54	50	58	56	56	51	47	46
Question 1 difference		^	15			18	4	5		1	-9		-7	-21	-23	-32	-25	-36	-33	-32	-23	-20	-15
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	57			58	56	57		47	42		46	44	39	38	39	40	41	44	50	53	54
	Worse off	^	19			17	16	17		22	26		25	28	32	32	29	33	33	28	25	19	20
Question 2 difference		^	38			41	40	40		25	16	21		16	7	6	10	7	8	16	25	34	34
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	37			36	32	37		30	24		28	24	18	19	16	16	19	19	25	35	33
	Bad Times	^	32			38	40	36		47	52		52	58	61	60	62	64	64	60	55	43	40
Question 3 difference		^	5			-2	-8	1		-17	-28		-24	-34	-43	-41	-46	-48	-45	-41	-30	-8	-7
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	40			43	40	43		41	39		40	39	35	38	38	37	38	36	42	49	51
	Bad times	^	22			25	26	24		30	29		29	30	33	31	32	36	37	37	31	23	27
Question 4 difference		^	18			18	14	19		11	10		11	9	2	7	6	1	1	-1	11	26	24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^		57		46	51	49	46		45		39	38	34	34	37	35	41	42	39	45	46
	Bad time to buy	^		28		32	31	32	34		36		40	44	48	48	45	49	43	46	47	40	39
Question 5 difference		^		29		14	20	17	12		9		-1	-6	-14	-14	-8	-14	-2	-4	-8	5	7
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^			121.2	117.8	114.2	116.8	106.6		99.7		100.0	92.7	85.6	85.4	87.5	82	85.7	87.8	94.9	107.3	109.9

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2008
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		1,106	946	1,094
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	30	31	30
	Worse off	47	44	44
Question 1 difference		-17	-13	-14
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	55	52	52
	Worse off	18	22	19
Question 2 difference		37	30	33
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	30	23	24
	Bad Times	51	61	55
Question 3 difference		-21	-38	-31
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	49	47	48
	Bad times	27	29	27
Question 4 difference		22	18	21
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	39	37	35
	Bad time to buy	49	49	52
Question 5 difference		-10	-12	-17
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		102.3	97.0	98.3

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

		2007
		Jan		Feb		Mar		Apr		May		Jun		Jul		Aug		Sep
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		^	1,956	967	990	1,080	1,092	938	1,084	1,072	1,195	1,040	1,001	1,054	1,077	1,003	1,036	980	1,023
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	^	41	40	44	40	43	41	42	41	41	41	37	39	37	40	42	41	40
	Worse off	^	21	23	22	26	23	25	24	26	27	25	30	23	29	23	25	26	27
Question 1 difference		^	20	17	22	14	20	16	18	15	14	16	7	16	8	17	17	15	13
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	^	58	56	56	55	59	57	52	52	52	50	50	48	50	51	52	53	51
	Worse off	^	12	16	13	15	13	15	15	18	16	17	19	18	16	17	15	14	18
Question 2 difference		^	46	40	43	40	46	42	37	34	36	33	31	30	34	34	37	39	33
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	^	52	51	50	48	45	47	45	38	40	43	40	41	37	33	37	39	39
	Bad Times	^	18	20	23	28	26	26	28	35	30	30	37	30	34	37	37	32	30
Question 3 difference		^	34	31	27	20	19	21	17	3	10	13	3	11	3	-4	0	7	9
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say it is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	^	52	53	51	49	50	54	47	44	45	46	45	46	44	40	47	44	47
	Bad times	^	17	17	23	23	22	20	24	28	28	26	25	24	24	23	22	20	21
Question 4 difference		^	35	36	28	26	28	34	23	16	17	20	20	22	20	17	25	24	26
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	^	66	64	64	63	57	61	58	61	59	57	58	55	60	61	64	56	50
	Bad time to buy	^	17	19	16	19	22	21	20	21	23	23	26	26	22	22	22	28	32
Question 5 difference		^	49	45	48	44	35	40	38	40	36	34	32	29	38	39	42	28	18
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		^	136.8	133.8	133.7	128.8	129.7	130.5	126.6	121.6	122.5	123.2	118.7	121.4	120.7	120.5	124.3	122.7	119.8

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

		2007
		Oct		Nov		Dec
		Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid	Beg	Mid
Interviews		1,010	985	952	974	958	1,028
Q1 Would you say you and your family are better-off financially or worse off than you were at this time last year?
Over the past year	Better off	37	43	38	37	48	49
	Worse off	29	24	27	29	28	25
Question 1 difference		8	19	11	8	20	24
Q2 This time next year, do you and your family expect to be better-off financially or worse off than you are now?
	Better off	48	54	49	52	58	59
	Worse off	21	16	16	15	16	16
Question 2 difference		27	38	33	37	42	43
Q3 Thinking of economic conditions in New Zealand as a whole.  In the next 12 months, do you expect we’ll have good times financially, bad times or some good and some bad?
	Good Times	37	45	40	40	43	43
	Bad Times	36	26	29	27	27	29
Question 3 difference		1	19	11	13	16	14
Q4 Looking ahead, what would you say is more likely, that in New Zealand as a whole, we’ll have continuous good times during the next five years or so — or we’ll have bad times — or some good and some bad?
	Good times	46	48	44	44	50	45
	Bad times	24	19	19	21	22	21
Question 4 difference		22	29	25	23	28	24
Q5 Generally, do you think now is a good time — or a bad time — for people to buy major household items?
	Good time to buy	52	57	56	51	55	54
	Bad time to buy	30	22	23	27	27	28
Question 5 difference		22	35	33	24	28	26
Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating		116.0	128.0	122.7	121.0	126.9	126.3

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification

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