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The strong rise in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has been driven by both an increasing number of New Zealanders saying now is a “good time to buy” major household items and also more positive feelings amongst New Zealanders about their family’s financial situation compared to a year ago.

Retailers should breathe a little more easily for Christmas as now 45% (up 8%) of New Zealanders say now is a “good time to buy” major household items, level with the 45% (down 6%) of New Zealanders that say now is a “bad time to buy” — both figures haven’t been at these levels since mid-September 2008.

New Zealanders are also far more positive about their personal financial situation compared to a year ago with 39% (up 7%, and the highest since the beginning of March 2008) of New Zealanders saying their family is “better off” financially than a year ago compared to 33% (down 10%), saying their family is “worse off.”

Looking further ahead New Zealanders are increasingly confident with 51% (up 5%) of New Zealanders expecting “good times” for the country during the next five years while only 26% (up 1%) expect “bad times.”

Over the year ahead New Zealanders are generally positive about their own family’s financial situation with 50% (down 2%) expecting to be “better off” financially in a year’s time compared to just 22% (up 2%) that expect their family to be “worse off” financially.

In terms of the country as a whole though, New Zealanders are still expecting tough times through most of 2009 with 56% (up 2%) expecting “bad times” economically for the country as a whole over the next twelve months while only 26% (unchanged) expect “good times”

Gary Morgan says:

“The new National Party Government led by John Key was elected to provide fresh leadership and new ideas to combat the recession — the rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating shows New Zealanders are giving John Key the chance to make a positive difference.

“The strong rise in the Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating, up 5.9pts to 105.6  — and especially the strong increase in the number of New Zealanders saying now is a “good time to buy” major household items gives hope to retailers that they will be able to make some sales during the Christmas holiday season.

“This week’s decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to slash interest rates by a record 1.5% will help to pull New Zealand out of a recession that started earlier in 2008 that should never have happened.”

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from November 17-30, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,058 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification

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