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The mid December NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is down 5.5 points to 100.1. The NZ Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating is now 26.2 points below the 126.3 it was in mid December 2007. This rating was conducted December 1-14, mostly after the decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to slash interest rates by a record 1.5% to 5.0%.

The fall in the New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has been driven by increasing numbers of New Zealanders feeling  their family is ‘worse off’ than a year ago.

Now 42% (up 9%) of New Zealanders say that their family is financially ‘worse off’ than a year ago compared to just 28% (down 11%) who say that they’re family is ‘better off’ financially than a year ago.

New Zealanders are more positive about their family’s financial position when looking forward though with 50% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expecting their family to be ‘better off’ financially in a year’s time compared to just 23% (up 1%) that expect to be ‘worse off’ financially in a year’s time.

Leading up to Christmas 42% (down 3%) of New Zealanders say now is a ‘good time to buy’ major household items while 44% (down 1%) say now is a ‘bad time to buy’ major household items.

In terms of the country as a whole, New Zealanders are expecting tough times through most of 2009 with 56% (unchanged) of New Zealanders expecting ‘bad times’ economically for the country as a whole over the next twelve months while only 24% (down 2%) expect ‘good times.’

Looking further ahead New Zealanders are more confident, despite a fall this week in the number of New Zealanders 48% (down 3%) expecting ‘good times’ for the country during the next five years which compares to just 27% (up 1%) who expect ‘bad times.’

Gary Morgan says:

“The New Zealand Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating has fallen after 3 straight rises as the full impact of the “Global Financial Crisis” starts to be better understood by New Zealanders.

“New Zealand has already been in recession for nearly a year and the collapse in demand in the world’s major economies, particularly the US, Europe and Asian trading partners China & Japan is beginning to have a major effect on the New Zealand economy.

“To drag New Zealand out of this recession will require strong leadership from Prime Minister John Key and a commitment to stimulating business through increased incentives. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand must also contribute with a further cut of at least 1% to interest rates at its next meeting.”

This Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was conducted from December 1 — 14, 2008, across New Zealand by telephone with a cross section of 1,145 people aged 14 and over.

For further information:

Gary Morgan:             Office +61 3 9224 5213   Mobile +61 411 129 094

Michele Levine:         Office +61 3 9224 5215   Mobile +61 411 129 093

Margin of Error

The margin of error to be allowed for in any estimate depends mainly on the number of interviews on which it is based.  The following table gives indications of the likely range within which estimates would be 95% likely to fall, expressed as the number of percentage points above or below the actual estimate. The figures are approximate and for general guidance only, and assume a simple random sample. Allowance for design effects (such as stratification and weighting) should be made as appropriate.

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating was measured twice a month from October 2005

^ There was only one January 2007 and 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions (2008) are as follows:

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2008 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

Results for the Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating* for the component questions over the more recent surveys for 2007 are as follows:

* The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

^ There was only one January 2007 Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence rating.

*The Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Rating is 100.0 plus the simple unweighted average of the difference between the percentage of respondents who give favourable and those who give unfavourable answers to five key questions.

The Morgan Poll is conducted by the ONLY Australian and New Zealand member of the Gallup International Association.

No other public opinion poll taken in Australia or New Zealand has this qualification.

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